Member Info for TarryBreeks

Neither areas are ours though Drewky: maybe they just don't want our gas?

Hopefully the Tanzanian Government has a can with a 25 year Development Licences in it for us.

More like:

Once upon a time the early bird arrives and decides to catch a worm - he goes about prodding the primordial soup with a big twig to start evolution of worms. He buddies up with another small bird and they agree to share the worm 75-25% but by sharing they have a greater chance of catching it.

They both wait 100 million years until they have found evidence of worms but .... shock horror then they are informed by a farmer that the first worm needs to give up 66% of his share to big daddy bird or else big daddy bird will starve him to death and in return he can have some twigs but he can only have one small twig now - he can only have the rest later if they catch multiple worms and he'd better accept it or the farmer & bid daddy bird will starve him to death.

So all three birds now with BDB on 50%, our bird on 25% and the other bird on 25% have to wait for another 100 million years until the worm has evolved enough to catch.

The end.

Thanks MK - must have missed it - will need to watch it again.

I think that's probably unlikely TWalbyoff - given we've made a discovery and now been forced into a farm-out with the Zubair Corporation (ARA) the licence is unlikely to be offered to anyone else. Not only are there terms in the exploration licence that would prevent this (otherwise what's the point in spending money to explore) but furthermore we have a formal plan for developing the resource - it's possible it could be further delayed, it's possible the TPDC could exercise their buy in rights but I would suggest it's very unlikely the licence will not be awarded - we've jumped through a lot of hoops already.

The real questions for LTH's are when will it be awarded, who will build the pipeline (looks like TPCD), what with the GSA look like, and most of all WHEN will CH1 spud?

The only headline I want to see from Reuters is: "Tanzanian Government approves 25 year Development licence for Ruvuma" closely followed by "Drilling on CH-1 is expected to start immediately".

Have we been given any indication when the 10 hole, 500m reverse circulation programme to test for copper oxide potential between the Lynda and Lorna Doone deposits was due to be completed?

We were also going to be doing a shallow 250-hole air core programme on a 10 x 10m grid pattern for all existing heap leach pads - I don't see any dates/timeframes for these in the last LCCM RNS? Did AB or JP given any indications in any of their recent interviews?

I hope you're right cperkin. Waiting has destroyed the sp so let's all hope there is a seismic shift in pace in the next 6 weeks.

I think 2025 is pretty accurate based on that graph Drewky; if it's not it does beg the question: why was the graph unscaled in the first place? I'm somewhat suspicious that the Zubair Corporation may just drill CH1 then wait until they've made their money back from the EPS then drill another. A little like the drill rinse repeat model our BOD once trumpeted. Time will tell.

Caroil-6 BG and if I ever hear that name again it will be too soon. I also hope there is an entirely new drilling crew because a poor workman blames his tools.

2025 is from p5 here http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/180717_Ruvuma%20Farmout%20July%202018%20Presentation%20Secured.pdf NT2 partially collapsed - it may be routine to remediate it but we seem to require remediation for 2 out of 3 wells - not a great record and yes BG I appreciate ARA will be running the show so I said I hope they don't use the same drilling contractor. And no Drewky I don't think you should do anything of the sort and furthermore mental health is a serious issue - I suggest you are not flippant about such things. In response to your underlying question I suggest we consider replacing our BOD.

FFD is expected 2025 so while it's great that eventually we'll be generating $35m/year *IF* all goes to plan we should perhaps take any timescales from back-to-back Aminex with a pinch of salt. Also worth noting that FFD is 8 wells we have drilled 2 so far and the second well collapsed. Hopefully Zubair Corporation won't use the same drilling contractor. All of this of course is dependent on the farmout agreement and so far I've not seen much of the huge influence Zubair Corporation is reputed to have in Tanzania being brought to bear - except when used against LTHs.

5p values Little Old Aminex (as Drewky likes to say) at ~£180m which, given we no longer have any income from Kiliwani and only now have 25% of Ruvuma, seems high IMO. Perhaps once we have flow tested but I can't see it pre drill any more. It's not like Aminex are good (or even competent) at PR. I just hope we find commercial oil so LTHs can get their shirts back.

I hope you are right Edgar but I fear 2018 and 5p are both optimistic.

No argument from me on that point willow. Bhattacherjee has had plenty of opportunities to demonstrate his integrity the most recent of which was to refuse or postpone his self awarded pay rise. He didn't though did he: snout firmly in the trough while the sp has been decimated.

"CAN YOU LOOK ME AND THEM IN THE EYE" - eh no this is a website.

"TELL US THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT WITH A HUGE POTENTIAL UPSIDE" - for new investors assuming everything stated is delivered then is should provide a ROI at these prices. However given we have little cash, no licence, farm-out is not ratified and our only source of income has been locked down can you look me and them in the eye and tell us this is not an investment with an equally huge potential risk/downside?

"SHOULD BEGIN IN LESS THAN FIVE WEEKS?" - haha *should* that pretty much sums up everything our BOD have ever said or done. Don't hold your breath on the 5 weeks ;)

I wonder if the dilution would be as much as 66% of our stake in Ruvuma which is what we've given up to the Zubair Corporation for $5m cash and up to $35m in carry (don't forget much of this will be coming from cash generated by EPS).

A moot point now but actually based on the $15m per drill and the likelihood that TPDC will build the pipeline going alone might well have been a much more attractive option. The 'transformational' deal certainly hasn't done us or our sp any favours.

If we had drilled back-to-back as intended and TPDC had been supportive we could have been producing already. Anyway, didn't happen - we stuffed up another well and confidence in our BOD in Tanzania hit rock bottom - just like our share price.

5p would be great - can't see 10p any more to be honest - that would value us at £360m which based on $12m/annum and even on $40m/annum seems unrealistic.

Same goes for Zubair Corporation. At the AGM I believe the $40m was described as "pocket change" to the Zubair Corporation. I wasn't suggesting we would or could have gone it alone, however I am questioning who was fighting the PI corner and it seems to me that we were an afterthought with a deal so miserly that it could only just scrape enough support. Also the 'transformational' deal was announced 6 months ago and the only transformation has been a dramatic and sustained fall in our sp.

Well unless CH1 is a duster or the farmout never completes (both unlikely IMO) we've been sold down the river BG.

I understand why the Zubair Corporation would want to tie our hands and I also understand why Bhattacherjee would do what he was told / whatever was easiest - but why is it in the interests of non Zubair Corporation shareholders? If they were paying a premium then fine but they arent, it's basically bargain basement and for selling our soul and pi's down the river they're not even letting us remediate Kiliwani.