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Thanks for the info. I remember well the pre production era and A2uk's posts were often informatvive and regularly extremely entertaining to hear the antics of the scourge of French casinos. His view from the fearless edge of life gave a novel perspective and with the loss of his views and presence we are all the poorer.
RIP
BP up 4.5% HUR down 5%.
Severe disconnect with OP
sent
"House prices have not really changed" "20-50% of wages"
The represents a rise of a £100K house to £250K - not a figure I would call unchanged. To me that difference is enormous.
"Half of Germany rents their home. Germany's economy is +20% richer than the UK."
Germany has run a trade surplus for the last 20 years at times reaching 300 bilion, UK on the other hand has been in deficit for all of this century with our GDP per capita aboyr 15% lower.
This is likely to have more to do with the fact that Germany's sconomy relies on manfactured exported goods where the UK relies more on building ever and ever more houses that is always slightly less than the number of people it imports so that demand/supply is always>1
When I first bought a house it cost me £8750. It has just been valued at £225,000.
I bought it while houses were 4.2 x income . Now the ratio is 8.8.
Which seems to me over twice as pricey
Until the country gets it's population crisis under control, houses will continue to be unaffordable.
Johnsonis the most dishonest and worst marxist prime minister we have had fior some time, I used to think Blair was our worst PM, but now Johnson looks to take over the crown. I have been no fan of his ever, yet there remain millions brainwashed by the lefty media who find themselves aligned with this fake tory.
In the interests of fairness let's tax those who find themselves in unusual profit. Average house prices have gone up 50K. Therefore in the interests of fairness we need to tax every homeowner about 25K?
Why pick on Energy? Is it because it's an easy target or because it's right. Johnson is no better than a highwayman.
Mmm after all Prince Charles said in 2008 we have 9 years to save the planet. So 5 years ago it went kaput. I must have got up late that day.
These Junkthink experts all have a qualication in Doommongering from Imperial college.
Funny by now we should have had Manhattan ,West side NY and half the British coast underwater too. Lloyds head office and the Bank of England will be underwater next, but apparrently thery're all so wet it won't make any difference.
On a more sensible note I see Barclays billion pound share buyback has seen them jump 3% already. While Lloyds seems to be ineffectual. Sid's law.
In 1995 average UK house price was under 4.5 times average income. In february 2022 house prices were 8.9 times average income. Representing a doubling in price in 26 years relative to income.
Unchanged is a far stretch from the figures.
Well in the past we have ghad several recessions that lasted two quarters. A recession can start anytime but cannot bew identified or declared until 5-6 months later. A recession could start in Q2 although we would not know until the end of Q3. But it could start in Q2 - but not be official until later. A recession must start at the beginning of the first of the two quarters and not when it's declared otherwise you could be declaring a recession that only begins when it might already be over.
Well my stats say France recieved 120,000 applications of which 15% were approved whereas the UK recieved less than half of France but approved more. You have 4.5 x the chance of a successful application in the UK than France.
Odd sort of statistic.
As you say you're welcome to your facts but can't have any opinions. Or was it the other way round?!
Well it's as ever supply and demand. Average UK house starts last 12 months 162.000. Average UK occupancy 2.4. ( despite people suggesting demographics lowerin occupancy historic occupancy is generally lower ) This would suggest that new people into the country exceed the 388,000 that this building level would support. Until we build more houses than people we import, prices will rise. Tis since it is not sustauinable will eventually end in tears unless carefully tapered.
A madness that Gov will not discuss. It's all about GDP expansion to defray debt. A ponzi scheme system.
New high for Shel or rdsb? There was a rise through 2017/2018. It was todays price jun3 2017 when crude was just over 50 dollars it rose to just over 2700 end may 2018 when crude was hovering around 73 dollars. It then fell back through 2100 on it's rapid decline to sub 1000 Mar 2020 - covid time. When oil was on its way to the depths also. If we had seen the crude price at current level pre pandemic we would probably be £10 north of where we are today.
But Shel hadn't gone full Greta in them days. Much else had affected the SP too, not just crude SP.
I am sorry I was vague on the subject of total or net migration numbers. IThis was the result of government figures also being deliberately vague. They guess it using ststistical sampling. Like Covid numbers.
The relentless increase in the salary multiple rquired to buy an house is principally due to supply/demand which in turn is affected by other factors like investment, but it only remains a good investment with strong demand.
I have a suspicion that building more houses might not ease the pressure but simply increase immigration, the government are akin to a drug addict/alcoholic where feeding their needs is an ever upward spiral.
Many factors like demographics affect demand, but the figures show not much change there
26.4 million households 2011 @2.3 per house ( 9.5% of houses considered overcrowded)
27.8 million households in 2019 @2.39% per house (2020)
These numbers tell you that between these dates 3.3 million more people were housed with occupancy density slightly higher than when we were considered to be 9.5% overcrowded.
Boris wanted 250,000 new houses this year enough foe 597,000 miore people but only got about 216,00 for 512,000.
He wants another 300,00.
Or to put it another way he is planning yet bigger migration numbers unless the birthrate is also going to do a sudden upturn.
My point is and always was that this whole 'plan' is unsustainable, ill concieved nay dangerous n a world where security may be measured by your self sufficiency. The 'plan' also neglects the fact that the 1960 Britain had decades or centuries sometimes millenia of infrastructure ( roman A roads) and housing an extra 20 million people since the sixties requires a growth of infrastructure in housing! but also roads, railways, waterways, recreational facilities,sports grounds, schools, hospitals, shops, car parks, civil offices, power generation and grid, water, gas, food,
I could go on, but I think if we want our children to ever have a decent way of life, we are currently exceeding the speed limit in the wrong direction. I called it a ponzi scheme because the process, the expansion curve and the outcome are likely congruous.
He is building a new Hong Kong on Thames. Sweat shop UK
My figures only include England. NI, Scotland and Wales all add to flow.
The numbers from the EU have been consistently high for the last 20 years averaging over 200K/annum with a total near 3 miilion since 2000. Tjese numbers however are smaller compared to the non EU immigration over the same period that has averaged over 300K/annum with a total over 5 miilion. These people had no right enshrined in law to come here unlike the EU. So our membership of the EU not the direct problem. The total of over 8 million does however create problems. It represents an increased pressure on all our infrastructure from roads and liesure to jobs . nhs and housing. We do not build houses as fast as these people arrive. I have noticed around my area there is a non stop industry all around the area of continual house building and we are told that the government never build enough houses for the people. Considering immigration control has been near the top of the important issues for many voters in this country for a long time you have to ask yourself, what are the successive governments doing and why?
The numbers get even larger when you had the illegals and casualhidden over stayers.
The only similar financial construct is the Ponzi scheme as governments seem to be attempting to shrink debt as a proportion of an ever growing GDP. Once addicted to this model only ever increasing numbers satisfy the need in this eventually unsustainable model.
It will pop quite possibly one day. Which will not be pretty in a world of ever increasing shortages of basic needs.
Too many people.
"Considered a windfall"
A windfall is classically an event from luck from the unforseeable like the wind.
The financial wars are planned and considered, nowt to do with wind.
Firstly when the price sunk it was dumping onto the market where Russia and Saud hasd a difference over market share. The price of oil plummeted and we made much losses. Now we have a situation where we are trying to deny market share for Russia by embargo, resulting in the opposite effect where there may be a scarcity of oil with associated higher prices. You might argue that the price of oil was already on it's way up, but that was part of this same hybrid war where putin was deliberately lowering gas exports to drive Europe into supply issues to soften them up prior to it's action on the ground.
Two wars one producing a glut one producing a shortage. We lost in one and profited in the other. I think that makes us about even. I see no windfall surplus, just a return of losses, These things tend to go in cycles. When I see oil companies recieving billions in subsidies when they make windfall losses then I'll accept the argument for windfall taxes.
The oil companies should need all their spare cash to make the UK more energy independent, unfortunately Boris's idea of independence is buying it from Iran or the middle east. Those bastions of Moral integrity. So he may finish up robbing them as he tells himself it's all for the sake of his green nirvana.
Vote Tory get green abcess.
If the SP doen't increase with the current price of gas , it's going to take something dramatic to ressurect this one.
Ah the ageing population.... that old cherry... Since 2006 there has been an increase in the over 65's of 660 thousand, ( partly caused by the increase in population) meanwhile the population has increased by 7.6 million.
In the past ten years the averge age at death has fallen. Compared to the levels of immigration the boomer bubble is just a bubble in the ocean.
Everyone talks about a growth in demand, as though it came out of nowhere. Demand is a function of several variables, the main one of which is population growth. They tell us we have a low birth rate so the enermous increase in demand/immigration is the problem. Since they intend to solve the housing problem, they do not intend to solve the immigration problem. The strange thing there is, is that the public see a problem and have done for decades, but in the Conservative Party it is a thing that you cannot even mention it's name. An ever growing population is as anyone familiar with agar plates will tel;l you is unsaustainable and for the population, will end in tears. It is akin to a ponzi scheme especially when you have a never ending stream of housing built, bought by overseas/the investment community, consistently rising prices and the benefit of the money flows for the investment. The end result however is met when one component of the treadmill fails. When that happens the politicians will hide.