RE: correct me if I'm wrong25 Nov 2022 11:45
Something is a miss that the top hitters in SMT trust weren't trading yesterday.
Yet TSLA is number 2 on their list behind MRNA, yet the NAV dropped the day before and today.
TSLA rose 7%, despite MRNA dropping just over 1pc. ASML and Mercado LIbre rose too.
Did all the lowest holdings fall materially that it dented the NAV 2 days in a row?
As for the SP, well, that trades on the open market and that's merely due to Buy/Sell ratio. Can't do anything about that. Money Managers will do as they please to meet their targets and depending on when they bought, liquidating at the moment might be wise.
In the US, the bulk of tax-loss selling should be over. In order to participate in the Santa Rally (mid-Dec), they have to have sold their underwater shares mid Nov in order to buy back before mid-Dec and avoid breaking Wash rules. So the NAV (IMO) should rise in the coming weeks.
I agree with @Walp. Depends on your horizon. Its down 50% from peak in Nov 2021. That's quite staggering. ASML for example is guiding some impressive revenues 2024 and beyond. TSLA will keep growing for obvious reasons.
Not sure about MRNA. Huge numbers in the coming year, but its their non-COVID pipeline that needs to hit milestones and gain approval. Not sure about 8% holding in that.
ILMN is a bit funny. They have big numbers and they're present in clinical diagnostics, but they have some serious threat with future sequencing technologies. A lot of criticism and skepticism about their long read offering in the pipeline. I'd be careful with them. If they're allowed to keep GRAIL, then they'll be fine.
AMZN is a good floor. If anything, I'd make them and Microsoft the biggest holdings. NVDA is also ata good price.
One turning tide is the October CPI numbers. FED also talking about a 50bps rise in Dec. If they hit US markets with 75bps, then I'd say they'll wait for a more data before moving on rates again.