Member Info for Tambo210

@DaKen

IN theory, Yes! But is that what happens in practice? $2bn is a lot of money for Kenya to just give up without a fight and claim that Tullow has done this wrong or that wrong during the development.

Makes sense not to burn bridges in order to build a track record of bilateral working relations.

But as I have said (unfortunately in a cringing way), doing business in Africa is not straightforward. They need investment to get development done. But you have to agree to their terms and changes to terms and conditions as time goes on. Otherwise they'll happily back out when you're 50% invested. They don't care if its not finished. They never put anything material into the project. Tullow meanwhile is nursing a significant writedown unless they complete and hope they'll get some money for oil revs which will be sold on Kenya's terms. Not Africa, but take a look at Genel. They have been screwed time and time again. Take it or leave it.

If Tullow back out to show defiance, I can bet Kenyan will go to CNOCC or Lukoil or Rosneft and ask them to take of the field and complete. What's Tullow going to do about it? Take them to the court of . LOL!

My point with all this is, throwing big numbers around like $2bn in the context of working in Africa is just naive. If TLW banks the cash, then hooray! Their balance sheet achieves a major repair. But calculating what they're owed on the back of a napkin and actually receiving funds (after various deductions that are magically taken) are 2 different things.

So people are thinking Kenya will hand over $2bn to Tullow (after fields are developed and pumping)?

@Starboard,

How did you go from Kenya to Ghana?

Lordsoflolly -

I was referring to US inflation.

Finally reached 700p!

(Inflation led of course)

Berenberg cuts Legal & General price target to 254 (290) pence - 'hold

254? That's a bit much, given there's no divi cut on the horizon.

LeedsWedge

No chance!

I'm in a class of my own!

I bought a boat load of $T (AT&T) at $40 and held like a true 'long!'

Just one of my brilliant 'short' calls!

For the record....my account doesn't allow to short.

(I wish I could though, since I'm an absolute legend at timing stocks that fall 5% the day after I buy!)

Crawshaw and antonb.

I've been long since £2.35....a very long time ago.

I've seen companies in Angola re-neg on their commitments to companies until the contractors go bk.

I have stock in companies with Pemex (not African) but same mentality dispute territories after oil reserves are proved and de-risked. Projects in East Africa with great promise get drawn out and investors like us are left staring at a carrot at the end of a very long stick.

Whilst Ghana has provided cashflow, I wouldn't be surprised if one day, the Ghanian government decides it wants a bigger piece of the pie and helps itself to the fields. Not sure why people are naive in thinking it would never happen.

The only countries which successfully extract resources in Africa are China and Russia. An its pretty well documented how they operate.

We have working oil in Ghana at present. Great! Extract as much as you can at prices above $55, before you're kicked out of the country due to a questionable tax dispute (yet to be whipped up). Kenya..I'll say it again...There's a reason why partners bailed. The terms aren't great and there's risk of actual revenue and how much cost contractors will have to bear. HAs it actually reached FID? It struck oil 11 years ago....yet still no progress! That's how long I've been invested! POO rose to $120+ back in 2014 ...even more of a reason to grant license and get a move on..yet here we are in 2023 with how many strategic partners?

On Libya, how can you guarantee the safety of your employees and transportation of oil for sale after you've successfully installed infrastructure? Two governments run the country and they want to divide the revenues. If not agreed, then shutdown...no revenues. Pretty well documented. They used to produce 1.8mbpd. They're under 1.2mbpd ytd. Dropped as low as 800kbpd in July 2022.

"Thereafter, positive news on Ghana gas deal( hopefully with some conciliatory words on the tax dispute) should see 12 month highs and a positive outcome on Kenya should then see 60p+."

Doing business with African governments doesn't work I'm afraid. I know its a 'paint everyone with a same brush' comment, but they just don't stick to agreements. Kenya not happening, otherwise it would have happened by now. Ghana tax dispute....come on, has to be in their favour.

Progress on Jubilee/TEN fields has been painfully slow and also cost more due to delays.

Angola too is a country and pulls the rug from under your feet. South Africa is in bed with Russia. Libya is a no no.

Either that or oil contractors need to bake Government re-negging into their estimates.

Goldman Sachs cuts Legal & General price target to 300 (320) pence - 'buy'.

Be lucky to see 280p.....

Citigroup raises Morgan Advanced Materials target to 435 (425) pence - 'buy'

@lordloadssoflolly

These funds tend to state a horizon of 5 years.

SO where are you relative to 5 years ago.

Performance since late 2021 has been due to speculative growth stocks being hammered. The INvestment trust trades at a discount to NAV because of sentiment towards BG's team on this fund.

Not sure I can see discount narrowing to neutral, but we're on the cusp of plateauing interest rates (+50bps in total is a good bet)

@zac0_4.

got my 'Hedging' and 'Leveraged' mixed up.....thanks for correcting.

Anon3

"I hedging is ok if you get it right. Same as anything, get it wrong and well....."

That's just it. Its always gone wrong for me and double the fall.

So I avoid it now.

@Jinkar

Is your Liontrust GF High Yield Bond (acc divis) down from when you bought owing to interest rate rises?

Has recovered a little, but doesn't look like its trading at much of a discount over a 3yr timespan.

Its Hedged, which I'm not too keen on.

@Learner.

We don't know their cost-basis for MRNA. But they did buy tranches at $200.

Currently at $120.

Thanks for sharing that zac0_4.

I have 2 of your top holdings. Have to say I've done ok with Fidelity Global dividend and Fildelity Global Special Situations.

I have a US Bond fund too which has been moot despite the interest rate rises over the period I held. I'm intrigued to see what happens when interest rates (and in particular treasury yields) fall. My expectation says it should rise, but I'll wait for the proof.

Anyone here buying gilts directly? I know we have another 2 more 25bps rises highly likely, but at some point (either before a recession or inflation magically shows meaningful drop) BoE will want to bring them down. Back to 0.5% or lower? I doubt it, but buying 2 year gilts right now with a fixed coupon and discounted, would give you a nice tax-free return (outside of an ISA) if you held to maturity. If anyone has bought, could you share how? Do you have to open an account with Compushare? Or do people just buy fund which effectively clump purchases of gilts?

@Walp

My reason for buying $SMT at the time was spur of the moment and I thought it was a safe bet given the history of the fund.

With it dropping nearly 50% from the highs (of the last 2 years), I thought it was a good entry point and would suffer a maximum of 10% drop in the near term especially given the 10% discount to NAV at the time. That was 12 months ago.

The NAV discount has widened.

In the end, its been a learning experience to monitor the guys running the fund. There's a culture of being with the big boys and so you're safe as houses, and the value of the fund will continue to rise with minimal work and soem flippant punts. In the case of SMT, investors haven't backed that fund and its dropped close to 20% from where I bought.

Its a lesson learnt for me.

I have to say Fidelity Global Dividend (Acc) has been a good steady Eddie for me. But then and again, its not an Investment Trust. Its an OEIC.

I think treasury shares if not retired can be sold back to the open market or used for equity compensation