Member Info for Takayama

Given the market's assessment (doesn't matter if it is right or wrong) that there is likely to be a recession in the US, this has a good chance of falling to pre-trumpian levels unfortunately. I'm half in, half out. The only positive s'buy' signal is that I sold half my holdings, the market will recognise this and push the SP back up! Lol! Or we reach stabilisation..... .

Bearded Dragon - people place bets. The shorters won't have inside information. You can be sure of that. If they knew a bid wouldn't materialise, then they would have increased their short to 100%. The amount of money you can make shorting is proportionate to the difference in SP between what it is now and what it will be after the short. Multiply this by a constant level of risk assessed, so you can see a rise in SP means you get a more attractive bet by putting more money in the short as the potential return has increased for a small investment. Potentially you can put on a stop loss too to limit the loss should news be announced. No one has insider information that is material at this point, so effectively the shorters will be looking at 50-50 (reasonably) and maybe more on the side of no deal, but only based on assessment (which ultimately is just a 'bet'). It's maths more than it is 'knowing the real deal'. From my position, I am unmoved by the shorts unless there is a rapid increase - so from 6% to 35% in the space of an afternoon. Don't get caught out by believing it's about insider info. It is just maths and about potential returns.

Rob - tbh, no one knows. But having worked in a large, agile company, and having experience of such 'paper tigers', yes, it could have been in the making for months, but it could also be something that has taken a couple of weeks to set up. I like the view that we don't need Sidara. I agree. We don't. SP likely to drop back to twenties if Sidara walk away, and then a period of pause for a couple of months followed by a slow climb back up. It'll be more of a slog for us to get rich, but not impossible. As it is though, I'd say that there is more chance than not of a bid landing. It maximises returns for shareholders. GLA

I'd suggest that this is a move by WG to up their 'value' with the Sidara approach. Sidara may be saying something like "We want to pay you this paltry amount because you don't even cover our territory - we will have to invest in this area to make you a viable business" - so WG have countered by setting this up. Ultimately, like many big companies, all it involves is shuffling existing personnel around, giving them new job titles, and new objectives. Sidara are unlikely to be impressed and WG likely recognise it is nothing but a paper tiger themselves. At least Sidara are interested, and we know WG is actively trying to get a bit more money. So negotiations are ongoing, Sidara haven't been put off, and a bid is likely on its way to being announced.

Ant - Could be. I'm cautious and generally avoid being optimistic if I can. Aaron did say something along the lines of a contract will take as long as a contract takes - so he won't push to complete one within six months just to get it within a reporting period... . Ultimately, what I am reassured about is that there isn't going to be a cash call, that finances are a top priority, that in fact the cash pipeline is growing. Given that, I sort of don't care how long a licensing contract does actually take to announce - again as Aaroon said, better to have a good one that takes a bit longer to get to than a bad one that can be signed swiftly. Given the state of finances, I don't feel it is as urgent anymore. I hope you're right about the Unilever contract being the first contract. If I were to bet, that certainly seems to be the one that we know about that is the furthest along... . And it looks like it's going to be a good one too. High profile, revolutionary and large volume.

Thanks Freddie. Watched it tonight here https://www.youtube.com/embed/Jjg4jD7Ixls?rel=0. I'd add my takeaways are:

1 - Finances are being managed really well. Shift in expenses include using share options rather than cash payments to directors. CFO and NED Tim Sykes bring excellent financial background. Headcount reduced and they've even sublet office space to get income. Also, see (4) below! I think another cash call is HIGHLY UNLIKELY given the trajectory!!!

2 - pipeline of £0.5m of pipeline closed contracts taken through to H2, with 60-70% of delivering successful product creating revenue,

3- £5.1m of potential deals, £3.2m at 'advanced stage' where proposal has been issued and queries being dealt with, or working through the contracting process (listen at 8.19 for definition of what that is)

4 - key is to get optimers IP licensed to provide zero effort passive income the future - likely to get to that point of enough passive income : four licensing opportunities now grown to TEN (!), waiting for negotiating licensing deals, any could be transformational to support the cost base. It sounds like within the next nine months, possibly seven.

5 Unilever discussed at 18.15 - essentially all the work is complete around the deodorant work and just waiting for lab test results from Unilever. Second contract now being discussed with Unilever.

6 Neurobio - Aptamer's binders have been validated to the highest level. Now a larger clinical study to validate results.

7 AstraZeneca - July 24 deal has been successful, Aptamer's lab work complete. Moving to pivotal animal study to get data to move towards a therapeutic style deal.

I'm really pleased that as an AIM company, the finances have been gripped and really well. I'm happy to hold for another 12 months. I don't expect to hear anything much within five months. But now is the time to buy! Before the news leaks out too widely I'd say. Well done the board!

FWIW, I reckon that now we are so close to deadline day, there are three things: (a) if there had been a problem, Sidara would have already walked away. We'd have heard about it. They already did the bulk of their work the last times they bid. There is unlikely to be something of deal-breaking size that emerged this time that they don't like. (b) Both sides want a deal. Both sides realise they have until the 24th to eke out a slightly better price. They'll wait as close to then. I bet that is adding to the reason for the delay. The original FT article spoke about WG 'wanting this to work this time', so there'll be an offer announced but it'll take time (C) a deal could drop any day. We've theoretically two weeks, but that isn't much time. It is over half way through the timeline originally offered.

So I'd say, given the time elapsed, the silence, and the original FT article, there is now over a 50% chance that an offer will be made. You know me. I'm a sceptic. It took me a decent amount of time to get to this point. I hope I haven't made the decision too early. GLA.

I thought these two articles were interesting and illuminated the current situation, summed up by "the only thing that is certain about the next week is that there will be a lot of uncertainty". Hope you find them as interesting. (Btw, I don't know either way - but I sold half of my holding today to hedge my bets, expecting it'll go down further and provide an opportunity to buy back in cheaper.). https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/european-airline-stocks-fall-as-barclays-cuts-ratings-on-weakening-demand-3974219

and https://uk.investing.com/analysis/can-americas-resilient-economy-endure-trump-20-200615836

Sorry - link to Barclays here: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/INTERNATIONAL-CONSOLIDATE-7233512/news/IAG-Barclays-lowers-its-rating-to-Sell-49307114/

John - You can see it here. However, no one else has said the same, and it follows on from ratings that were increasing even as late as earlier this week! The view of the Motley Fool is hold at this stage - the positives outweigh the negatives. I'd agree to hold at the very least. There's a difference between day trading and investing - if I was a day trader, I may take note of the Barclays note (though no justification or reasoning given), but not if I was an investor.

https://www.fool.co.uk/2025/03/12/down-12-in-a-month-is-it-time-for-me-to-sell-my-iag-shares/

I completely agree with Garonne about the overreaction. We do seem to be a bit of a stand out in the FTSE in terms of how affected we are to Trumpian tariffs. One angle I picked up on is that the increase in the first place was due to the Trump effect - his being voted in boosted the IAG price and so this is a correction to what it should realistically be. It's a reasonable argument because I think many of us were pleasantly surprised by the continued rise. But of course, results stepped in and justified the climb - and a further climb. I'd attribute 20% of the rise post 250 to that Trump effect (gut feeling) if at all, so it still looks like an overreaction to me. In any case, we have seen with Trump's reversal of 50% tariffs on Canadian aluminium etc that the situation can turn on a sixpence. The fact that Starmer has said we're not going to enter in a tit for tat is also good news, so in my view, it's just a matter of time before we switch back. Let's see. Still just an interesting paper loss for me, rather than a concern about how I'm going to pay off the mortgage now... . Oh, and Russia, of course, won't agree to a cease fire. But again, that shouldn't concern us. That risk was already priced in before Trump was elected and that overfly route doesn't materially affect IAG's margins as far as I see.

Pavriko - Buy time is coming real soon don't you think? I'm thinking of remortgaging to get a good chunk of a business that is pretty badly undervalued. It looks like a one way bet - my finger is hovering over the buy button, just waiting to see who is going to break ranks first.

It certainly isn't advisable to act at 0800:01 with news like this abounding. It's been a reasonable recovery since first thing this morning. Let's see how quickly Trump "resolves" latest trade/tariff issues. I wonder if we've a team discussing a trade deal with US yet? Lol! Where are those flight times to Aruba...... . ;-)

Pavriko - Thanks buddy. For what it's worth, this is my view of in terms of effect on IAG price, I'd rank it thus: (a) Trumps comments that he's happy with a recession (I'm sure he'll be under pressure to row back) (b) Ukraine (Zelensky knows he's not going to win against Trump, there's a good chance we'll revert back to Oct 24 situation in about three months I'm reckoning as Russia doesn't want a deal and will see more gains to be had via war and continued influence over social media (c) Israel/Palestine - it's been going on for nearly a hundred years. Minor irritant to IAG SP.

Oil price crashes usually are followed by swift cuts in investment in infrastructure investment. I doubt that Trump will tolerate a recession and is likely to row back on his comments that have induced current sentiment. I doubt that the opportunity to buy WG will be influenced by a potentially short term 'world event'. Will Sidara walk away again given this latest 'world event'? Timing is everything, but is it everything at the moment? I'm on the fringes ready to jump back in, but the risk of Sidara walking away has increased as far as I can see. And we'll be back to 20p in no time if that happens.... .

Freddieboy - normally, I'd expect blue skies, but the Trump effect is likely to dampen the mood unfortunately. At least we won't crash as bad as (or worse than) the rest of the world today perhaps.... . Survival for the next six months until Trump readjusts his messaging... . Or until we get some concrete news from Unilever. That will make us blow. I'll be happy with a stable SP at the end of the day.

Prophetwarning: Why are you posting your political views here? No one cares what you think about Trump and Musk. This is a chat board to discuss making money. Not you.

I think Dowgate sold around £5k of shares (0.09% of company issued stock), right?. That really isn't much.

Yeah, I wished I had made the effort to short Tesla when I said it was a good idea (see my earlier post here)! Lol!

Pavriko - Yeah, Trump. But it was more of a joke about my luck, a phenomen that many of you guys out there share. You spot a crisis, sell your stock, only for it to jump immediately up! Tbh, I'm guessing the Trump administration are realising they're not calling all good shots. You'll spot the positive messaging in the news around Ukraine tonight. You'll also spot something around a trade deal with the UK within six months. Probably Canada and Mexico issues will be swiftly resolved too now. Other investors are going to spot the same and then IAG will stop this slippery slide. It could be tomorrow to be fair - Trump recognises the power of instant social media. Or it could be later. Sell tomorrow and then sentiment does a switcheroo and you've lost. I'd expect a euphoric jump when people feel things are resolved. Keep your cool now and you've a paper loss for a few days perhaps, or maybe we won't have a red day tomorrow? The Trump team realise they're sending the wrong messaging out. They'll be working out how to fix their c0ck up. They're cr@p at international relations (yeah, it really isn't like buying property/running a corner shop!) and maybe this has dawned on them. Like, duh!