Member Info for Takayama

The least controversial and least risky next investment would be an extension of the buyback for a second tranche of 10% of the company (to bring us up to 20%) on similar terms if not a lower buyback ceiling, followed by another dividend. Each 10% buyback brings around £200k in the coffers from the dividend (the company receiving £1k in dividend for every 100k of shares it buys) essentially funding a large proportion of the next buyback…. . What do you reckon?

As someone who stop lossed during Covid, and just got back in (later than I’d have liked bc of liquidity issues), I’m glad I’m back in. I don’t think £3 is unrealistic within 12 months. Cost cutting during Covid was significant, the only time that known inefficiencies (that had been factored into the pre Covid price) could’ve cut, debt being repaid and the money making machine that is Heathrow churning profit out for IAG, I can only see green for Elsa ahead. Only a widespread world war could destabilise iag now. Taiwan is further offrir cards and that part of the world is not a significant market forIAG, so even if Taiwan blows (let’s hope not for so many reasons), it’s unlikely to impact on IAGs bottom line much. With the restoration of the dividend, pension funds et Al will be able to reinvest and then we’ll see at least a doubling of the sp imho. Gla!

Dagz- great posts as always, but just one thing. It isn’t spelt ‘laugh’ but ‘larf’.

Deltalo: We have up to 30 May to buy back 21,5 million shares.

There's £850 k allocated to the task.

That provides for an average price of just a tad over 4p per share, hence current prices are still a bargain, leaving plenty of money over for further purchases should the buy back be extended.

If we are in a rising market (someone else is making purchases of a few thousand pounds a time it appears) then it makes sense to buy earlier rather than later.

The volume of possible shares to be purchased a day is 20% of the average daily volume of the shares on the trading venue on which the purchase is carried out, such average daily volume calculated over the 20 trading days preceding the date of purchase. 

Friday's RNS shows 500k is possible at the moment.

With around 17,5 million shares purchased, there's around 4 million left to buy.

There's still enough liquidity (aka volume) in the market to allow for sizeable purchases, again as Friday's RNS shows.

Rules of the buyback state that the Maximum price is the lower of: 

a)    110% of the average middle market quotations for an Ordinary Share taken from and calculated by reference to the London Stock Exchange AIM Market Daily Official List for the five business days immediately preceding the date on which the Ordinary Share is purchased;  

b)    6 pence (£0.06) per Ordinary Share; and

c)    the higher of the last independent trade and the highest current independent bid on the trading venue where the purchase is carried out. 

We're still well within all three criteria.

So yes, it is the brokers being a bit useless. And you and I are the ones that are going to lose out if they don't maintain maximum purchases at this low price.

Well, someone is building a position. Not a surprise at thi price. And our brokers simply are not making the effort to grab the opportunity to buy back on the cheap. I wish Ed would call them and tell them to pull their finger out. That’s what an alpha male would do.

Gotta say, the brokers are particularly useless. A 150k buyback, way below the the allowable purchase, in the last minute of yesterday? Doesn’t seem like they’re on the ball with this. The opportunity for a successful buyback slipping away with these incompetents aboard.

What do the next six to twelve months offer? My guess is a another 1p dividend, combined with an escalated share buyback to maintain NAV as much as possible. Ed's likely to announce one or two investments. Results will bring a new NAV (I haven't bothered guessing given all the changes), which will bring lots of discussion. Reasoning below:

The current rate of share buyback provides for 7 million shares bought back a month, lets say at 2,5p a share, which costs £175 000

Three months of buying at this rate brings 10% of the remaining shares in issue in for around £530 000

That leaves around 180 million shares.

Six months of such buying leaves around 150 - 160 million shares in issue at a cost of around £1m - £1,2m (assuming the SP remains below 2,5p.

Another 1p per share dividend would cost £1,5 - £1,6 million.

That would still leave £1,5 million for investment!

I'm thinking that Ed is conscious of the need to prove himself, so it could be a case now of returning as much cash as possible now and relying on the currently zero valued investment portfolio proving everyone wrong in 12-24 months time. A very profitable sale of an investment or two of Ed's doing would provide him with that justification to carry on.

The share buyback means the cash dividend is offset somewhat by the reduction in the number of shares in circulation via the increase in NAV.

Risks? Well, Ed may buy something with our money that we don't like. I've wondered about Northern Leaf and how a £30m investment in which SEED only had a tiny part could be valued at virtually nothing. The current valuation of Northern Leaf is unclear to me (Voyager was around £1,4M at the time of the £5M joint valuation announcement) and it boggles the imagination to understand what went wrong? It sounds like something out of a Guy Ritchie script went wrong from where I'm sitting. In any case, it still isn't clear where all subsequent Northern Leaf pre-IPO money went (there was more than one lot and it was a lot), SEED were not the only ones left in the dark and the ex-CEO has gone underground it seems. So Mr Ritchie, get in touch. It is still a state of the art facility and with the way the cannabis market is going, then it remains an interesting prospect.

There's plenty of other risks (you'll point them out I'm sure), but again, from where I'm sitting, the upside remains glaring with the current strategy in place. Ed doesn't seem disposed to make massive investments as I think, with all the feedback, he's more self aware this year than, say, two years ago. So I'm guessing that any investment announced isn't likely to be our only one. There's likely to be a spread of risk.

Glad I've held. I'd suggest it's a good time to buy. Whatever happens, you're going to get a decent return over the next six to twelve months.

Dags! Oh! Good point! Bleedin’ obvious but of course there’ll always be some out there.

Dans. Sure but the drop may not be 1p. Mms will drop it by the divi value usually, but then you could see buying immediately after that. It’s good time to buy anytime here given that even ex-divi, we will still be way, way below NAV. I’d say if you’re a bargain hunter, it’s best to get in at the basement.

It isn’t mms that mark it as a buy or a sell. It’s an automatic process via software that flags it’s a buy or a sell depending on what the ‘mid price’ is at the time of posting the transaction. But sometimes the buys come so heavily or quickly that the mid price jumps above what the actual purchase price is. So the software used by LSE marks it as a sell. You’ve spotted the buys well. It’s basically free money at this price. If you are deciding your purchases on whether it’s indicated a buy or a sell, well, that isn’t what the pros do!

Lanjan- yes that’s right. New shareholders are always welcome. I bought in because I saw value. With a 1p divi, and a p/E of, say 20, this should be trading at 20p I reckon, but that would be tops I reckon.. I agree with Dagenham. Anyone selling now would be mad! If you’ve bought in now, you’ve bought at a good time to get the divi, and then to have spotted a share with sp so below nav. What an opportunity. Get the divi and then you’ve got a spread of great investments to profit from when the board sells them, almost for free!

Lanjan- yes that’s right. New shareholders are always welcome. I bought in because I saw value. With a 1p divi, and a p/E of, say 20, this should be trading at 20p I reckon.

Whatever happens, it’s going to be hilarious here! Let’s hope it isn’t tulip bulbs!

I’m all for a special dividend. It would be great if done at the end of a significant and consistent but back. Even with only 100k a day bought, that’s still 1% of the company a month, but it seems the brokers we have can’t manage such activity every day!

The best chat board on LSE! Good days of postings comrades! Best bit of SEED perhaps is this board! Particularly laughed at the 'it's like being another 12 months married' comment! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! I couldn't imagine selling up and putting my money in some stock with a dull board.

Just looking back in here, and seeing many familiar names. Always interested in BEM, and as with many junior miners, another capital raise. Can I just check (having scrolled through and researched but not found the answer), this raise for approx £8m covers running costs for just the next 12 months? That's what the information folder says. Of course, Grafintec will produce revenue in 2027, so three years from now, there'll be an excellent revenue stream from there, and possibly better news on Kallak. But also, presumably, another two fund raises? And that is only for costs to get it to project start line for Grafintec. An amazing upside should BEM continue to manage to raise funds to that point in time. Personally, I like Ed. But his track record isn't stellar. At least he isn't a pure geologist though. GLA

Longlad: Boredom!! Ha ha ha! Absolutely! That's why I come on this board, to read all the really entertaining posts!

Mat: Mellon isn't such a bad person to have around. He's rich. Combination of luck and timing. Perhaps some may rub off on Ed? And skill? Maybe, maybe not, but I'm not bothered about that. Better than no mentor at all. I'm not sure I'd have started here without the likes of Mellon in the background.

Mentorship aside, Mellon can likely provide access to some interesting VC meetings/events for Ed, for Ed to meet the right people, for Ed to hear the 'top gossip' about what's about to be hot, for Ed to be in the loop about what's about to happen. That's more important for someone in Ed's position, and Mellon's usefulness. You win some, you lose some in the end. No sense in despairing. We're not in a desperate position here. Ed's certainly become steadier in the last year. Less of a fast boy perhaps, more self aware. That's good. Personally I'm worried that he's perhaps become risk averse! There are some exciting start ups/early stage companies out there, particularly in some 'sectors' (lets leave the medicinal cannabis sector alone for a bit of time though I'd suggest), and it would be great for SEED to get a position in those other sector's star companies before those bubbles start. Because there will be more bubbles. We just need to get there first.

I'm not too sure I'd agree with Ed that there's a scarcity of capital out there. For the right company in the right sector, there's a lot of investors chasing. There are marginal areas that few people expect growth (ahem, medical cannabis appears to be one of those at the moment) and there are likely to be plenty of companies in these sectors that are overvaluing themselves (I'd agree with that), so those that are genuinely undervalued, no one would really be interested in them anyway so they may well remain undervalued until they either fold or we as investors die of old age. So for example, in the field of DNA data storage, Evonetix had a very oversubscribed series B funding round (£44M chasing £20M Series B round), and that alongside a few other sectors, really IS the future, and would be an exciting area for SEED to consider. I thought Ed's March 18 presentation wasn't too bad. Interesting to hear that Mellon's increased his holding. Mellon and McDermott are obviously very close, so I hope that Mellon's able to provide further mentoring to McDermott. Mellon I think runs the Master Investor Show? Mellon and McDermott certainly share some of the same language ("That shows how much of a lousy investor I am, ha ha"). I think Mellon can get away with it but of course McDermott isn't there yet. And has Lloyd Leckerman exited completely or has he transferred to his wife? I can't remember. I wouldn't be surprised about the former. As others have said here, there is a risk discount likely applied with Ed at the helm so I personally hope he manages to demonstrate some value investing in the near future that can get us excited. I'm guessing the CFG exit is on the horizon too.

I have to admit Longlad that even I am starting to feel a little wonderment at the lack of activity beyond ‘high interest account’ and ‘special dividend’ talk. I, too, feel that the opportunity cost may simply increase here without end, actual cost notwithstanding. Where is the exciting growth? European cannabis markets are undoubtedly loosening up, and, as someone perhaps a little longer on the tooth, I have seen (and experienced) such quiet before frenetic activity in the past. At this point, it feels I can only hope that is what will happen here. My most pessimistic words yet. But I’ve made a lot of money in such an environment in the past… . . There is undoubtedly value here. Perhaps the board may wish to offer me a job? I understand risk and of course, there is risk in NOT acting as we all know. At least I hope we do. GLA.

‘Special dividend is on the table’. Correct me if I’m wrong but is this the first time we’ve heard this?