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As I said earlier: The Ex Divi date is 4th Sept. Please don't believe various websites saying the 18th; they haven't updated from the updated divi date as per one of esures latest RNS's. A bit more info fom my previous post: ""The divi will be 2.5p: broken down as 1.8p 'normal' and 0.7p 'special'. The only reason its split out like this is due to the way its calculated: -50pc of taxed profits is considered the 'Normal' Divi element @ 1.8p -The special divid is 20pc of the taxed profits if its capital position remains as strong as it has been in recent years @ 0.7p The divi will be paid as one, and not two divis. The final divi (approx Mar 2104) is likely to be around 5 or 6p in total, based on the 1/3 interim, 2/3 full payment."" While I'm here, the previous rebound was of the dead cat variety it appears. Although I was very keen on a retrace back to "230/235p" I did think we could hit back to 260p soon after this retrace...not sure on that one..?? From here a slow and steady climb would appear to be expected, surely. Good luck all, I'm not in here however as I sold out for a tiny gain a short while back, to whack more into QPP.
The SP went up on Aug 8th despite the sales as the shares were bought back by the company: the previous shares in issue was 101m, now it's 90m (figures from top of my head) therefore, although TVC essentially paid cash for these, the SP would have to rise to maintain an accurate MCAP... It appears to me the current gist of this company is to release as much cash to the directors as possible! Watch UTV results on Tues. if they shot to, say, 200p then that will have a positive impact on TVC... Still, not worth it even for a few percentage when other shares at present are return nice capital profits.
NAV at March 31st in euros is 1.21 = £1.05 When this was fed to the market the SP was £0.82 = discount to NAV of 22%. This is typical of a holdings company (PRS runs at -28% for example) and this discount reflects that turning the NAV into cash will reduce the stock value (its realisable value; For example imagine selling 19% of UTV; the offered sale SP would be lower than the existing market price). So, with this in mind, the NAV post ‘Divi’ will be 0.71 euros = £0.55p. Run this with a discount of 22% and you have a projected SP of £0.42. I could argue that the NAV discount to realisable value will increase; this is due to a higher proportion of the NAV now being held in stocks, rather than cash, as the company has released a lump of the cash via divi. Let’s assume a discount of 26% = projected SP of £0.40 after the divi. So, is it worth it? Outgoings: You pay £0.84 per share Incomings: You receive £0.43 as a divi (0.5 euro) and will have a share now worth £0.40 You lose £0.01p per share and also have fees and stamp duty to consider, along with a delay in releasing the divi cash of 6 weeks and exposure to currency fluctuations. Not worth it in my book, unless the post divi share price is boosted by other news (UTV increase from SP of 155p) or the MM’s haven’t done there maths correctly by 8am on the morning after the post divi date (it does happen!)
Moneysupermarket.com has dropped over 5% today; As Esure owns a 50% stake in GoCompare (which not on stock exchange) it is susceptible to feeling the impact of any movement of that share/industry... All part of the unpredictability of share dealing! Another factor is money is going into China Related industries at present, so therefore others suffer (UK based services notably)
After the large drop last week, there will be a few larger, perhaps institutional, investors still feeding in their sell offs. Once these dry up the demand should surely take this share much higher over the coming weeks. It surprising we haven’t seen a red day in the last 4/5 days. Shows good strength. With trades such as the £0.64m trade (250,000 shares) just bought @256.5, I am beginning to think the larger investors now have faith that they aren’t ‘catching a falling knife’ and a rise is expected from them. Even Brookers not intrinsically involved in ESURE are valuing the share at between 267p (lowest) to 300p (highest) in the latest broker updates.
The divi will be 2.5p: broken down as 1.8p 'normal' and 0.7p 'special'. The only reason its split out like this is due to the way its calculated: -50pc of taxed profits is considered the 'Normal' Divi element @ 1.8p -The special divid is 20pc of the taxed profits if its capital position remains as strong as it has been in recent years @ 0.7p The divi will be paid as one, and not two divis. The final divi (approx Mar 2104) is likely to be around 5 or 6p in total, based on the 1/3 interim, 2/3 full payment. Out of interest.... ESURE has a 50% stake in GoCompare. GoCompare is growing year on year and in March 2013 was considering a sale for between £275 and £450m. Grant Thornton were hired in early 2013 to conduct a strategic review and in March 2013 this was in its 'very early stages'. Nothing has made the news since: If GoCompare is sold for the valuation of around £400m then Esure will do very nicely indeed out of the deal, as will Esure's shareholders. Yet another reason to hold these shares over the coming months.
Will have a check. The inital ex divi date was 18th Sept and then corrected to 4th - With regard to the special divi i will get to the bottom of that and find out the full story there... Anyhow, the retrace was stopped in its tracks it appears a steady climb would, of course, be nice now. I rate this share at the moment, I really do. Enjoy the weekend.
The ex divi date is the 4th of september. Read the bloody RNS from the company. I will link it for you: http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=ESUR&ArticleCode=3p59vqhz&ArticleHeadline=Further_re_Interim_Results it states: The interim dividend will be paid on 18 October 2013 to all holders of Ordinary Shares on the Register of Members at close of business on 6 September 2013. Therefor the ex-div date is the 4th. If you dont understand this i suggest you stop investing mate.
Bloody hell. In final sentence: Even if the market gets itself confused and it drops a little more, I am convinced that the drop of 311p to 242p @ 22% is NOT going to be justified. LOL. Must try harder.
It alludes to the AA report in late July that confirmed: The average annual comprehensive car insurance quote fell to £594.84 this month, it said, down 9.8% from £659.53 last July - the biggest decrease since the AA insurance index began in 1994. its difficult to copy and paste on phone!
A few interesting points…. H1 report said: ''The UK personal lines motor market has seen an increase in price competitiveness as demonstrated in the recently published indices which show significant rate reductions. This has been most noticeable during the latter part of quarter two and into quarter three.... In light of market conditions, the Group now expects full year premium growth to be lower than that achieved in the first half of the year. However, the positive factors outlined above should serve substantially to mitigate any earnings impact from the lower premium growth.'' This is the part of the RNS that did the damage. It alludes to the AA report in late July that confirmed: ''In light of market conditions, the Group now expects full year premium growth to be lower than that achieved in the first half of the year. However, the positive factors outlined above should serve substantially to mitigate any earnings impact from the lower premium growth.'' Yes, it is a competitive market and revenue/premiums are dropping; but they are dropping for a few reasons: -Young (high ££premiums) drivers are now being driven out of the market: this is positive, yes average premiums are dropping because the more expensive drivers are being priced out, but so is risk and cost (young drivers are involved in 26% of car accidents – AA review) -There is a constant drive to reduce insurance claim costs; Referral fees being abolished in April (July 27th BBC news article) and an ongoing review of the insurance industry claims culture focusing on fraud (July 27th bbc news article – different than above reference) will help this industry lower its premiums whilst sustaining the profits. The idea of a drop in insurance premiums is not fully understood, because it’s a very recent change in market conditions, but lower revenue from premiums is absolutely fine when the cost of providing the cover decreases in proportion or even faster in comparison. The dividend is likely to be 1/3 interim and 2/3 full. The means that the dividends are going to be at least around 6p. This is 2.5% returns. Considering this was the other main reason for the drop, I still feel the market over-reacted. I myself purchased a few here today. Even if the market gets itself confused and it drops a little more, I am convinced that the drop of 311p to 242p @ 22% is going to be justified.
As I said; the Ex Divi data is early September., the 4th of September to be exact.
Just to add, the ex divi date isnt the 18th Sept. I believe its earlier in Sept. will check. I agree, the fundamentals are there; the recovery from these positions are very unpredictable but using other examples (such as AZ electronics which also revealed a negative future warning, despit decent results earlier in 2013) the market does tend to over react and a re-rate can occur nicely in the following weeks. However, nobody knows - if i did I would have a Yatch in the Caribbean...
Esure was running with a PE ratio of around 15 prior to these results; this suggested some decent growth would be expected by the market. Yes, it grown H1 2012 to H1 2013, but when ripping the figures apart and taking the H2 performance from 2012 this was actually comparable to H1 2013. Yes, there is seasonality, but the run rate of Half year performances actually saw a bit of stagnation. With this in mind, coupled with the 'Outlook' section of the RNS (which was shockingly negative for H2) then I believe that the annual 2013 performance is likely to be very similar to 2012 and will not sustain the H1 2012 to H1 2013 growth percentages. We would typically expect a company with consistent year on year growth to be PE of 11-13. Given EPS of 21.1p last year, and an assumption for 2013 to be around this value, I believe the share price 'should' be 235p to 275p. This is obviously only one side of the multifaceted story. 242p today; I would expect 265p within 3 weeks, a low of 230-235p may be seen.
Your metaphor is incorrect though?! What happened here was that you paid £2 on doughnuts that never existed. Its either fraud or total incompetence: Fraud. G4S could have been knowingly invoicing for people that did not exist, taking advantage of the incompetent government management 'invoice approver' OR Total incompetence. as G4S didn't have a clue what it was invoicing for, due to no systems in place, and the government 'Invoice approver' paying for a service they had no clue about. All in all its a total shambles.
I was aware of this when I had a little play around the dividend date back a couple of months ago link from May 17th: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22568970 'Report was due within 6 weeks' Always do the research....