Thoughts on upscale-SNG00119 Feb 2021 14:53
Afternoon on a quiet Friday afternoon: Just a quick reminder, not long to wait.
RM has stated a few times now that as of start of 2021 plan is to upscale and manufacture 100, 000 treatments per month via Akron et al, and these will be priced at £2000/treatment. I believe he has already committed to agreements with which guarantees production slots etc etc. Therefore if initial manufacture is now already rolling out in the factories at this level, and as he was using 30 million approx. for this purpose - I am guessing that between now and end of June, Synairgen will have at the very minimum 600, 000 treatments on the shelf (however we do know that last year he was getting some manufactured, without knowing volumes).
This means that without any other outlay, we will have sales of £1.2 billion immediately done IF all goes well in P3. This in itself values an mcap at ultimate ultimate bare minimum of £6 per share without any forecast multiples as per norm.
Whatever happens, we can be certain that huge scale up is already being set up and who knows 'what else' in the background...…..multiple JVs ????
On these very simple calculations alone, we should brace ourselves for a hugh uplift in SP, However, success rate @P3 stage for respiratory is considerably higher than most disease area i.e. oncology/CNS/CVhttps://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2019/05/09/the-latest-on-drug-failure-and-approval-rates
My research calculates the chance of success now is minimum 75% for natural biological.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/11/clinical-trial-success-rates-phase-and-therapeutic-area-14845
My view of success is approx. 90% from here based on current science Phase 2 result, ACE2 short form Nature publication
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-00759-x
All the other stars aligning, Home trial results possibly end of March, ACTIV-2 in full flow (potential EUA after P2 readout), FDA Fast Track status, 620 patient worldwide P3 ongoing, getting into that 'interesting' period for news