Member Info for Swissydog

Hi scoredaginsteps it is a difficult one as tensions grow the closer to expected deadlines and it does appear that the necessity for a further raise and expected FDA News are converging somewhat. It does appear that a few of the larger trades are marked as unknown and being published far later than the transaction times which has appeared to me in the past on other companies that I have been invested that the sp is being held up for a reason. I don't know if that is a MM strategy or just us PI's misunderstanding, but two days when sells exceed buys and not much retrace. I can view this as a good thing for the sp or would it benefit a soon to be released raise? I don't know is the answer but a raise before news might not be a bad decision either! After all we were sort of expecting an £8m raise last time through to profitability and it would ensure working capital even if FDA approval has a slight delay The problem with an early raise is that the II's that supported Geni last time when PI's somewhat shunned the offer would probably demand a stronger discount before approval. Of course it would cause a pull back but how large is hard to estimate as we would be in a stronger position with news flows ahead.

I also believe that the FDA will approve our application but on AIM delays play tricks with the sp even if missed by a few weeks. Anyway I am still feeling positive with a strong BOD that have skin in the game. GLA Swissy

It seems that way to me Dai as they put it into the trading list only once the real time buy price was exactly the same as my sell price and mark it as unknown. That way afternoon buyers could read it as a big buy and follow in, sneaky!

Crafty old market makers as I some Geni shares this morning in two lots. The first was a much larger amount followed immediately by a small amount. Now the small amount immediately showed uo on LSE BB but the larger amount has only just been published. Yes they have shown the time of transaction band 9.25p but are showing as an unknown trade. They have totally withheld the higher sale late to do whatever they want with the sp in the meantime. Just stating how difficult it is to watch the transaction levels to gain an insight into what is going on!!!!!

I sold a few this morning at 9.25p as I thought there might be a retrace without news and it has happened. I would be happy to buy back in but can't seem to buy a bean at the moment, so will wait and see where it settles.

A quick recap to evaluate the ‘RISK’ of a further raise assuming a positive FDA result on CIC score kit approval.

I am only laying this down for discussion and opinion within this group so feel free to express opinions:

At IPO Genincode sp was 44p with 38,636,366 new shares representing 40.42 per cent of enlarged share capital with 95816866 shares in total and MCAP of £42.2M

With recent dilution we now have 176.96M shares with a free float of 97.84M shares and Current MCAP of 16.63M.

Assuming we get FDA approval I am assuming for these calculations we see a 50% rise in SP from todays value (Seems reasonable to me) and we see a raise for a further £4m (as was suggested by BOD at last presentation). Allowing for a 10% discount (it was 5% last time) then raise would be at 12.15p equating to approx. 33m new shares issued. This would give enlarged share base of approx. 209,000,000 and a new MCAP of £25.51M. This in my opinion is a very reasonable assumption as Peers at IPO were rated at 50-100M MCAP.

Assuming that a reasonable MCAP at this new advanced stage could be considered £50M then that would place the sp at 23.92p ( again a figure close to those being suggested by many posters on this BB as suitable).

Therefore in my opinion if the FDA approval result is good then I can’t see a huge risk to my investment from current levels with a new raise. In fact personally I am very bullish on this company which allows me to look even more favorably on the assumptions suggested above as I personally could see a 100% increase on good news but everybody must evaluate their own risk and strategy. Of course there will be peaks and troughs on the way as with all shares and the headwind risk to all investors is FDA approval at this point. However the free float will be deemed incredibly small if approval lands and buy in after approval could be at multiples of the current sp.

I would love to know others opinions and assumptions so DYOR and share if you can as it can only aid the research of potential new investors looking in and promote Genincode in general. Looking forward to next week as news could land any time. Cheers Swissy

Thanks for the advice PP.

I hit dead ends trying to get early notice information PP as it is De Novo and all-out constant discussions between FDA and Geni.

There is another piece of info that I just cannot find form The Baltimore Sun as it does not allow access from this region but Medstar are in collaboration with Genincode and somebody saw a link to an article that suggested Medstar might be seeking plans for patient focused cardiovascular outpatient centres utilising CIC scoring. I can only speculate as I can't locate the article and it could be part of the research proving required by the FDA but could also be another commercial pathway into market and if true it could be big for Geni. I won't dwell on it any further as I can't provide the proof first hand.

Have a great weekend Swissy.

Great advice Troajan and nice to see time served guidance to new posters as it shows good will with the best intentions. Have a great weekend ; ). Cheers Swissy

The following is an extract from information presented in the latest RNS:

Oxford, UK. GENinCode Plc (AIM: GENI), the polygenics company focused on the prevention of cardiovascular disease and ovarian cancer, announces today the publication by the American Journal of Preventive Cardiology of a study on ‘Polygenic Risk and Incident Heart Disease in a large multiethnic cohort’.1

The Kaiser Permanente Division of Research study investigated more than 63,000 adult individuals with no history of Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) who are part of the Kaiser Permanente Northern California Genetic Epidemiology Resource in Adult Health and Aging (GERA) multi-ethnic cohort. The GERA cohort followed the membership over an average of 14 years, using CARDIO inCode-Score® to assess the polygenic risk of CHD and future incidence of risk of CHD.

I think that it is the fact that this research was undertaken to include an extensive American based multi- ethnic cohort sample which could be the information that the FDA require as previous studies sampled cohorts of predominantly European ethnic diversity. They seem to have put the stamp of approval on CIC so lets hope we hear very soon.

Have a great weekend and see what Monday brings. GLA and DYOR Swissy.

Dai if I'm absolutely honest then 20-25p is easy just by market cap alone. I thought it would get there even from a lower starting price but this will help enormously. The share has been off radar and so undervalued that it was ridiculous IMO. What we need to see after approval this month (fingers crossed) are some revenue figures which I'm hoping will be towards the top end of estimates. The last RNS research by Kaiser Permanente holds some of the data that I think the FDA may have been holding out for in the sense that previous research by US collaborations have said that a ? over cohort and ethnic diversity may have been lacking as previous sample populations were predominantly European based. The Kaiser study took in over 63000 California registered past patients and included a large Latino, Black and Asian populations sample and CIC still showed the same positive tests results. I don't think it will take long now that this study has been published. IMO Geni could easily be 50p+ within 12 months and who knows how high on a buyout offer!!!!Enjoying the ride so far Dai, cheers Swissy.

@Tro just did a dummy trade and got offered 9.5p to sell and ask now 10p+ FOMO Friday is happening me thinks but also the higher we go now the more beer tokens we get when FDA land the news we want. Hold tight Swissy.

Nice one @ LifeOfPI I can see what you are thinking and I'm of similar thought. Was offered 8.055p to sell first thing so it would seem that a base is being developed and that they want your shares. Only a matter of seeing out this month with a cool head and hopefully we get our reward. Cheers Swissy.

Nice post @ConorM and I am pleased that I was on the right track with my own calculations earlier as I posted the below on the 27/03/24 and somebody at A J Bell has been reading the BB LOL! seriously though this blinkered vision is all centred on the FDA approval but we have many other ongoing and growing revenue streams so the prize just gets bigger and bigger. So we are $0.16Bn apart on our estimations but I won't argue with that.....would any of us? Bring it on!

Regards Cardioincode the American Heart Association AHA/ACC are now considering guideline changes for PRS to stratify patients at high genetic risk using polygenic assessment testing.. The addressable market for this being $10.5Bn and our serviceable market for CIC of $4.5Bn. During the ongoing consultant experience programme Geni have been seeing growth of 20-30 accounts per Quarter and see this continuing into 2024-2025. The Clinical Lab Fee Schedule for CIC Score is at $760 / test. About half of Physicians would order CIC if covered by insurance for those in the low to intermediate risk categories. Therefore if my calculations are correct this could equate to 8.8m prescriptions @ $760/test = $6.46Bn potential. DYOR Swissy

Have just had thought! I was wondering if the FDA and Geni have been waiting on the results detailed in the latest RNS as final details to questions that have been asked. If so then the submission could really be in the later stages before being signed off!

I know it is only speculation on my part but I really think that another AHN NHS region could be signed up and announced anytime now and perhaps FDA news which would potentially not only add to the balance sheet but also tickle the sp upwards before the BIG NEWS arrives! Speculation is always made easier when you have a good BOD and I personally think we have a Great BOD. I admit to being in Geni since IPO so have bought at the top and at the very bottom and my feelings towards the company, its products and its BOD are the same now as then, very impressed and I look forward to the company's future. Usual Caveats, Swissy.

This is all looking very positive with the research reiterating that the CIC code score really shows benefits especially in diagnosing younger people so that lifestyle / treatments can be implemented early which will save many lives going forward and must help our De Novo submission.

I was watching the Theranos story drama on iplayer the other night and it hit me that Americas appetite for diagnostic analysis with health issues is massive. I also wondered that in the longer term if like the Theranos strategy that GeninCode took an almost retail approach on an out of pocket pay as you go basis with their tests how many Americans would take it up as part of Health Status Check. The polygenic analysis results stay with you for life so the earliest diagnosis is the most beneficial. You could also see life insurance companies adopting the tests to mitigate risk exposure especially with Familial cases. Lets face it Life insurance companies over here already take all of your life style factors into consideration and also insist that you stand on scales to prove your weight declaration so as to score your risk to claim experience.

The possibilities are so numerous that we can only imagine at this stage so lets get FDA approval as soon as possible and then make plans. ThromboinCode and SUDDin Code to come out later this year let's not forget and ROCA score available now.

Wow hold onto your tickets guys and dolls as interesting is about to begin. GLA and DYOR Swissydog.

Hi @Tro I have just been offered 8.05p for Geni shares so moving nicely and hopefully when FDA announcement comes and is positive I'm hoping for 20p now!

There are a lot of sells with the news so perhaps the sp might not be able to hold for long especially if funding is being mentioned. Sounds like they could be a good link up with Genincode as market cap is only over £7m.

@Dai not sure really as like you say more sells than buys yesterday . There has not been an RNS yet which is par for the course. Can you see the sp holding if there is still a no news situation after the money is in or will FOMO knowing that they are funded for enough time farthings to progress. I have a strong feeling that MSC are holding out for Bio Msar and until everything is in place for uninterrupted supply of that then I think signatures will be slow appear but just my gut feeling.

You can't look it up as it is a De Novo submission and so there is a lot go company - FDA liaison and discussion so only open to the company and their agents with specific log in etc. If you read the De Novo pathway it explains it a bit clearer. We should have an update this month hopefully.

Dai, what I probably mean is a sub placement price if there is no news situation say 2 weeks after the open offer is completed. Many will then be banging the drum on missed timelines and most buyers will have already committed so a lull and sp drop could momentarily occur. Of course news could land any day but this is QED!