Member Info for Swell2316

There undoubtedly is but, it’ll require some work to connect SH to it. It’s this that makes me feel that the opening isn’t far off or the negotiations to open it aren’t deadlocked, if there was no chance of a compromise then I’m sure there’d be an announcement to that effect and all haste would be made to fabricate an alternative route to market.

PUTUP. Thanks for the insight into your modelling but, most retail investors like me haven’t time to produce spreadsheets, we tend use more binary methods, buy low sell high. We’ve been waiting for “receivables” since this company started pumping, it hasn’t stopped the share hitting £3+ in the past and I can’t see it affecting it in the future. Once the taps open and normal service is resumed, this share will accelerate as the retail following plough large sums in, when that happens, it’s time to sell.

Steve,

On the divi, this is currently in question as there will be liquidity issues if GKP’s inability to export oil continues. If you’re thinking of taking a punt, don’t do it based on the divi. This share has massive upside potential based on the asset but, the Turks have taken umbrage to the charge of illegally exporting Kurdish crude and have stopped the use of the Iraq Turkey pipeline (ITP). There’s tons of opinion and speculation as to when or even if the Turks will relent and open the tap but, again, there’s no solid info as yet. If you have a good appetite for risk, there’s money to be made, if you need a return quickly or you can’t tolerate false horizons, look elsewhere, there’s easy money and less stress in the ftse 100.

It was a sarcastic comment but, I’ll take 100k if they’ve no need for it. Volumes are low and there’s little price action is what I was getting at. I understand they may be grabbing a few cheap shares but, this share is poised and could leave them with a significant loss if they’re not quick enough to react and like you say, for not a great deal of reward.

147,

The oil is now under the control of SOMO, it doesn’t matter what the KRG thinks or how oil gets to market, they govern the sales, price and will take care of any negotiations with the Turks or owners of other facilities that can handle the product if the Turks decide to torpedo a solid revenue stream.

How’s that short position working out.

GG, have to disagree, Erdogan is hanging by a thread, he holds nothing. This oil will make it to market with or without his cooperation, if it’s the latter, he will isolate his economy from an easy revenue stream and that would be like his combover, foolish.

Jeez Bugsy, you’ve been around as long as I have. We may finally be able to get something out of this share after all these years.

Frustratingly, the price didn’t drop far enough for my limit buy to kick in. I’d appreciate it you good people would stop buying the dip for a bit so I can get my order filled.

Cheers.

Belgrano,

Yes there is a route south through Rumaila which BP control. If this is going to take months and the Turks are the reason, they’d be as well to explore this option and cut them out altogether. This should be put on the table as leverage to get them to stop being foolish. Significant drop this morning but, it’s a buying opportunity for those with the balls to accept it.

If it does tank tomorrow, I’ll be adding some more in anticipation of a spike when the black stuff starts flowing again. As said by belgrano, it’s in the Turks interest to get on and open the valve as there are always alternatives when serious money is at stake.

I don’t think it matters who wins, there will be pressure from all directions to open the line not least from the Turkish treasury, who’ll be missing that revenue stream greatly.

It is unclear when flows will resume but Abdel-Ghani said on Friday Baghdad had still not heard back on a request to the Turkish state energy company to restart exports.

I believe the hiatus is the result of the election. It’s a massive and historical weekend for Turkey and restarting a pipeline is a bit of a distraction. It may be another week before the request is actioned but, that could be a good buying opportunity as the risk averse drop their guts.

We could also consider that if Turkey becomes too difficult to deal with, SOMO could remove them from the chain with a tie back to southern Iraqi pipelines which, wouldn’t be too difficult to achieve in a short space of time.

Nothing is confirmed until everything is confirmed and unless you’re a trump supporter, stick to recognised sources for news, twitter isn’t one.

I don’t know as there’s no confirmation of the contracts moving to SOMO from KRG yet. I also don’t know how much of that 1.16m figure will be SOMO’s responsibility but, I assume it’s small as they were given dispensation for rebuilding their shattered infrastructure. They may be allowed to pump more to cover the losses from KRG now they’re in it together.

Oil is up because OPEC+ 1.16m bbl cut announced in Apr was to start in May has started to take effect.

Only last month, there was talk of this outage possibly lasting until the end of the year then, OPEC+ announced a 1.16m barrel cut to production. This has, imo, focussed a few minds and has hastened the deal to get the pipes open again. Morningstar and others are expecting a shock, with prices hitting $100+ in the 2nd half of the year. They asked “time to buy the dip?”, I believe it is.

I believe the next divi will be paid and then, if they decide to scrap further divi, it’ll be announced at the AGM in Jun.

Got out early after bad news with a small loss. Managed to clear the loss through VOD recent lift so now back in with a decent increase in volume. I wasn’t as quick as I’d have liked but, I’m well below where I left. I think if all this gets sorted, the oil flows again and SOMO have control of exports, I can see GKP becoming attractive to big oil. Bon Chance all.