Member Info for Swatton

From memory they have already reduced the drilling budget this year to $2m.

Just to clarify. I don’t think they have given last years contractor the boot. I think they are referring to the change that happened earlier when the old contractor left. I can’t remember the timings but around Q1 last year I think.

BB2 - it was great to meet you yesterday.
S

Why do you say the brakes are off in 3 days? Am I missing something; why do you think the share price is going to rise above 100p?

According to the Q1 figures RNS, the company said. "The Q1 2022 grade profile was again relatively low primarily due to lower grade sections of the orebody accessed during the period and a run of mine ("ROM") pad not fully optimised to allow for more consistent better grade ore feed into the mill, resulting in lower grades being processed for the quarter"

Can anyone explain what a ROM pad does and why it needs optimising? I have tried to find out by googling but can't find any good references.

Well said! Couldn't agree more.

Thank you both.

I have emailed the company to register to attend but I haven't heard back. How do you book onto the AGM?

What you getting at @bonker. Can’t see why they would want to keep the price low. Can you explain please?

I fed back to the company after all the Q4 debacle that they have a track record of over promising and under delivering. My feeling is that they will not want to do that again for a third year on the trot. So my hope is that they are pretty confident of achieving the guidance for this year and to be in excess of the minimum stated. I think so long as the actual achieved numbers has a 2 in the front of the number, so >20k oz, the market will respond with a big Phew and hopefully the share price will stay at least static. If it is >22k oz then I think that will be seen as positive and the share price should hopefully rise.

Don’t remember any guidance of 18k oz being mentioned for Q1 at all. Wasn’t in the Q4 update RNS

THARISA - A good set of solid results. I guess what surprises me is that the net cash position only went up a very small amount with quite a bit more debt. Why is that?

? Tharisa had a cash balance of US$101.5 million (31 December 2021 US$79.1 million) at the end of the quarter and debt of US$75.6 million (31 December 2021 US$54.7 million) after a final FY2021 dividend payment of US$14.1 million. The increased cash has resulted in a positive net cash position of US$25.9 million (31 December 2021 US$24.4 million).

Excellent news. Can't believe the market hasn't responded to this yet!

I have been following all the updates from THARISA on Twitter. Last quarter they produced 47.7 kOz @ $2394 per oz for pgm and 401.8 kT @ $161 per ton. So far this quarter they are averaging a basket price of $2827 per oz for pgm and $189 per ton for Chrome.

So revenue for Q1 will be approx 47.7k * $2394 + 401.8k * $161 = $114.2M + $64.6M = $178.8M.

Assume they produce 44kOz of pgm and 420kT of Chrome (I think probably on the low side) then revenue for Q2 will be approx 44k * $2827 + 420k * $189 = $124.4M + $79.4M = $203.8M.

Total revenue for H1 in the region of $382.6M. Costs for H2 2021 according to the last set of accounts were $208.4M. Assume an increase in cost base of 20% (on the high side) would equate to a cost for H1 of $250M. So my rough calculation is that they are making in the region of $382.6M - $250M = $132.6M Profit before tax. Tax rate seems to be around 27.76% so profit after tax will be in the region of $95.9M. This is all attributed to Tharisa as there is no dilution now that they have bought out the minority share holdings.

Profit before tax around $95.9M, number of shares are now 282.3M because of the small dilution. Means EPS in the region of $0.34 per share. This is for the first half only. Note the EPS for the whole of last year was just a little bit more at $0.374 per share. Assume a dividend of around 18.6% (same as H1 for last year) then I would be anticipating a dividend due for H1 of $0.063 per share.

For the full year assume they have as good a second half as the first half (in my opinion it will be better as I believe prices still have some way to increase) then we would be expecting total EPS of $0.68 and a dividend of around $0.126 per share.

Obviously my thoughts only so DYOR etc....

Don't know if you can compare and I might be clutching at straws... But looking at the last report for Tharisa (pgm miner) they mined 5.4 M tonnes of reef compared to HUM's in 2020 which was 1.4 M tonnes. In the Tharisa report they spent $25.6M on diesel. During that time oil price was averaged $60. I know you can't do a straight comparison but could suggest that HUM might be spending circa $6.6 M on diesel. Or at current oil price of $120 would equate to an annual cost of $13M. At 100kOz per year this would be $130 per oz of gold.

Just been looking back at previous dividends and they were much higher but the dividend cover was less than 1. So how can a company sustain that? The dividend cover for 2022 is estimated at around 1.75 so there is scope to increase. But that said see below for comments taken from the final results on Nov 16th. So FY2023 we should see a ig change hopefully!

"Our five-year plan to transform Imperial is divided into two distinct periods. The year ahead will complete the two-year strengthening phase, with further investment in our five priority markets and NGP pilots, the embedding of new ways of working and cost-saving initiatives. This period builds the foundations for the subsequent three-year phase, which focuses on the acceleration of returns and sustainable growth in shareholder value."

I’m interested in your calculation of 22%. Could you explain how you get to that number?

I would have thought so too. But how can they retain their empowerment status at the same time. I thought that BEE meant you had to allocate 26% of shareholding to BEE shareholders. But to be honest I don't know enough about this. Would be good to get some clarification though. I'm hoping that Tharisa might be able to shed some light on this question.

That was my take but Tharisa also said 'while retaining our empowerment status' in order to do that then they would have to have 26% of the BEE shareholders at the company level? But I can't believe that to be the case as that would be a huge dilution for all the shareholders.

Tharisa. Many thanks for your contributions to this board, they are extremely valuable. A question on your clarification message above. You are saying that you are looking to 'buy out' 26% of Tharisa Minerals but then 'flipping up' your BEE shareholders to the top level company are you effectively saying that if the agreement goes through then the BEE shareholders will acquire 26% of the top level company shares?