Member Info for Swatton

I'm pretty certain HUM had an 18month payment holiday for the loan. So I suspect it starts in Q3

Hi BB2, I can’t make the AGM tomorrow unfortunately. Would have been nice to have made one of these meetings where the discussion was positive for once. Would appreciate a short summary if you get the chance.

The Q1 update explains all regarding what is left to pay and when. I read it as $44m to be paid in Q2 and Q3. They have $7.9m cash, $5.6m gold, and $15m of debt they can call down as of end of Q1. So they just need $15.5m from operational cashflows for Q2 and Q3?

· Net debt position c.US$110.8 million end of Q1 2023 (c.US$105.2 million including gold inventory value) consisting of:

o Gross debt of c.US$118.7 million.

o Cash at bank of c.US$7.9 million.

o Gold inventory value of c.US$5.6 million.

· Further, c.US$15 million remains available and expected to be drawn this quarter, Q2 2023, from the Coris Bank International ("Coris Bank") debt facilities.

· Of the budgeted US$115 million capex for the construction of Kouroussa:

o c.US$83 million has been paid as at the end of Q1 2023.

o c.US$12 million to be paid this quarter and early Q3 2023.

o c.US$20 million contractor deferrals, retention incentives and working capital not expected to be paid until Kouroussa is in full production.

· The balance of Kouroussa's capex to be funded from a combination of the recent Placement, ongoing operational cashflows and available debt facilities.

I'm not actually sure that there are penalties to repay the debt early. At the last general meeting I think it was Dan that said that one of the first things that they might look at is debt consolidation. They couldn't do that if there were significant penalties for early repayment, unless of course it made financial sense to do so. Also I thought the debt repayment was over 2 years not four.

That’s what I thought. Also on a presentation on the Hum website I think they have a bar chart which includes circa 50kOz for Karoussa Not guidance but it does sound plausible for this year.

I'm sorry could you post a link or explain where you get that guidance for HUM for this year please?

Hi BillyBoy - yeah my take on the VAT is that it wasn't resolved and my impression was that the amount outstanding was pretty close to what it was at last years AGM. I also got the impression that the team didn't think it would be resolved either.

Bushy - from what the team said at the general meeting earlier this year KE underground won’t be until Q4 this year.

That was exactly my thoughts. Plus in H2 we will be accessing poorer grades at Yan so could be back to 20kOz per quarter @1500 ASIC

I give up. LSE seems to not want me to post all my message. But my thoughts are for an annual ASIC of 1350/1400 which I will be pleased about.

Not sure what happened to my message it should have been...

I don't think ASIC will stay that low for the whole year. HUM's guidance is

I don't think ASIC will stay that low for the whole year. HUM's guidance is

What is cracking off with the trades today. Seems like a load of automatic trades gone through all at 500 volume within a short space of time. Anyone any idea what is happening?

It was a good set of results. The only thing I am slightly disappointed by is that they didn't say very much about the Exxon Mobile deal. Just one sentence and that they were confident. They have lost the timescales from the last update. Not sure if that was a mistake but does seem less positive than the last update.

The wording "Looking ahead at the likely completion timetable for the ongoing proposed acquisition" still seems to be positive towards the deal going through. I wonder if agreeing to these governance changes were part of a deal....? Dunno just thinking out loud.

Fully understand the upside potential. But this is Hummingbird. I’m factoring in a fair amount of market pessimism until they prove themselves.

Evraz - yeah I do agree. FWIW my targets are.... 140kOz this year. 90kOz Yan, 50kOz Karoussa. ASIC of circa $1400 and maybe average gold of $1900 across the year. This maybe a bit pessimistic but I prefer it that way with HUM! So EBIDTA of $70M this year. Assume a multiplier of 4 which I think is fair compared to other miners then you get an enterprise market Cap of $280M. By the end of the year I think we will have circa $90M of debt maybe. So maybe a fair market cap by then will be $190M or £150M. Given that there are circa 600M shares then a target price of 25p by the end of the year. In 2 years this raises to circa 60p when in full flow and debt paid off. And that is assuming that they can extend the life of mine of Yan and Karoussa to around 10 years. If the life of mine is shorter then a multiplier of 4 is not valid in my opinion.

Evraz - it isn't going to be 250kOz per year! You are aware that HUM will be assuming Yan contributes circa 80kOz per year from next year right? So it will be just a bit over 200kOz per year. Maybe 220, but it isn't going up to 250 with the current mines.

Yes please that would be great. My username is @stewartswatton

Where are you hearing all this from SeaTank? Would very much like to read this if you can post links?