Member Info for Swatton

Many thanks. What’s the beginning part of the url?

I take that as a committed dividend. It should be far more than that but they would t want to commit to something bigger given it’s a 5 year timescale

Actually from the results:

Offshore, the idle well restoration programme added c.25.9 kbopd gross production capacity from the first 29 wells restored to production.

But I do remember a success rate of around 75%

I can't fully remember but at the presentation for the Q2 results I think they mentioned something along the lines of 26 wells attempted to repair with around a 75% success rate. But I may have got that wrong

What would this mean for SEPLAT do you think?

Hi SeaTank - Would you be able to post a link to that? I would be interested to have a read.

Many Thanks

Good question. My very rough guess is that over the next 4-5 years we will be edging towards circa $0.1 per quarter dividend. So maybe a total dividend of $0.5 in 5 years. Assuming a yield of anywhere between 7-10% would be a share price of £3.8-£5.5. I would be happy with a share price around £2.6 by year end.

This is a really good interview. Look at around 22 minutes in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDvx3FAjmRY

I think we will get further dividend increases slowly over the next few years. It isn't the free cash flow that is important it is the free cash flow post tax. We need to build up a CAPEX shield before we can really enjoy large dividends. I think that SEPLAT have indicated that they are expecting a circa 70% tax rate this year fro the MPNU assets, down from 80% last year. It will take a few years to get this to a low number. I am hoping for something around 20% divi increase per year for the next few years

They announced an uplift in the last set of quarterly results. It is now at 4.6c I believe per quarter. I expect the special divi to be something similar

Isn't it tomorrow?

I've been noticing that over the last few days to be honest. I'm a bit surprised there hasn't been a bit more of upward movement on the share price!

Any body got any idea how long it will take to secure the P.I.A. on the old Seplat sites and also the new SPNU sites. I would also be interested in any thoughts on what this will add to the cash flow after tax?

There seems to have been far more buys than sells today but no upward price movement. Any ideas why?

The only numbers that I can't get my head around is:

• SEPNU production contribution of 75,365 boepd

From memory I think SEPLAT mentioned that the numbers for Jan and Feb were over 80 kboepd which would mean that March would have to be at circa 65 kboped. So why the drop?

Also:

• SEPNU idle well restoration programme added c.11 kbopd gross JV production from the first 10 wells restored to production.

I'm guessing only half of that is due to SEPLAT but that would make the figures worse for the existing SEPNU wells for March. Did something happen in March that meant the production was lowere? What am I missing?

I particularly like this bit!

- Dividends of about USD115 million in 2025 and USD200 million in 2026-2028.

I agree with all of that SeaTank. I had in my mind that I would be happy with an increase to 4 cents this quarter. I think it will be a slow increase in dividends whilst we start investing CAPEX over time. I feel like SEPLAT have to increase the divi this quarter otherwise the market might take a negative view if they don't. That said an increase of 1 cent would cost the company circa $6M so increasing to 4 cents per quarter is an overall cost or $12M (assuming they increase the special dividend by the same amount). That sounds easily achievable for them.

But it looks like MPNU created circa $70M of post tax cash flow last year and we know that SEPLAT are planning on $80-100M of CAPEX investment for them this year so that is going to hold us back a bit. Under the Petroleum Profits Tax (PPT) regime we will get a tax break of 20% of the capex in the first year. So assuming $100M CAPEX this will effectively cost us $80M and assuming MPNU produce the same pre tax cash flow as last year then it doesn't leave much (if any) left over for a dividend rise!

And then the next dividend 2 months after. Over half the yearly dividends within the next 3 months.

Any thoughts on whether they will increase the dividend for Q1 results?

Hi all. I am a little confused. Can someone explain what is meant by ramping up production from 50,000 bpd to 120,000. The reason why I ask is that it would appear that the current joined company is already exceeding this value. Previous SEPLAT were doing circa 48,000 and the acquired company were doing over 70,000 and it seems that in the first 2 months of this year they did circa 80,000. So I am confused as to what this 'ramp up' actually means?

HI SeaTank - thanks for posting that. That is really interesting. Can I ask how you know that; have SEPLAT said anything else about the structure of the new notes. And how do you know the rate of 9%?