Member Info for Svend

Multiple reasons Rycey is flying north above 12 tomorrow 😜

Arsenal17, 🤡

That’s a convenient narrative > though perhaps not surprising given you exited at £5 and have had to watch the rest of the movie from the sidelines.

Active participation isn’t “daily gambling”; for many, it’s disciplined engagement > monitoring positions, managing risk, and responding to new information as it develops. Markets evolve constantly, and choosing to disengage entirely isn’t inherently more prudent > it’s just a different approach.

Filtering out opposing views might make things feel more comfortable, but it doesn’t strengthen decision-making. If anything, it removes the very friction that helps test and refine an investment thesis.

Different strategies exist for a reason. Some are long-term and low-touch; others are more active. The outcome matters > not the label. And dismissing others as “gamblers” tends to ring hollow when viewed alongside the opportunity cost of exiting too early. IV 🙌🤣

Badland,

That is correct and very recent.

JPMorgan Chase has raised its price target on Roycey to 1,500p (GBX 1500). Previous target: 1,320p

Rating maintained: Overweight / Buy

This update came out today via broker notes and aggregated news feeds.

What it actually means (cut through the noise)

Upgrade size: +180p > ~+13.6% uplift in target

Signal: Not a fresh initiation > it’s a confidence reinforcement

Context: Continues a trend of progressive upgrades (1,245p → 1,320p → now 1,500p)

How to interpret it properly

This isn’t JPM suddenly “discovering” value > it’s them chasing fundamentals catching up with price + execution:

Strong cash flow + margins (post-transformation)

Civil aero recovery + defence tailwinds

Power systems/data centre demand

SMR optionality creeping into models

Classic pattern:

Analysts lag → results confirm → multiples expand → targets move up

Tactical takeaway (my style of thinking) 1,500p is now a “consensus magnet level”

Expect:

More brokers clustering around the 1400–1600 range

Price reacting more to earnings validation than to upgrades themselves

Currently, the consensus estimate from all brokers is 1442.81.

Roycey Easter Special > Intraday Technical Structure (Hourly)

Pattern Formation

A confirmed double bottom structure has developed across the March 23–30 window.

The 1188 level has transitioned from a reaction low into a validated horizontal support zone, reinforced by repeated demand absorption.

Trend & Momentum Shift

Price has decisively reclaimed the 200-period SMA (hourly), signalling:

Transition from corrective phase > early-stage trend continuation

Re-establishment of short-term bullish market structure

Momentum characteristics suggest that a higher-low, higher-high sequencing is attempting to form.

Measured Move Projection

The double bottom pattern yields a measured upside objective of targets 1250–1260:

Derived from the neckline breakout extension

Confluent with prior supply/resistance cluster

Key Levels

Support: 1188 (structural pivot/invalidation level)

Dynamic Support: 200 SMA (now acting as trend filter)

Resistance / Target Zone: 1250–1260 (primary objective)

Trade Structure (Mechanical View)

Bias: Long above 1188 + acceptance above 200 SMA

Continuation Trigger: Sustained momentum above recent breakout highs

Invalidation: Loss of 1188 > pattern failure/reversion risk

Risk Overlay (Macro Catalyst Layer)

Current structure is technically constructive, but remains headline-sensitive

Elevated geopolitical risk (Middle East escalation scenarios) introduces:

Gap risk

Volatility expansion

Potential technical invalidation irrespective of setup quality

Summary

Structure is constructive and actionable, with a clean pattern, defined risk, and measurable targets. However, this is a technically valid setup operating within a macro-sensitive environment, requiring disciplined execution and awareness of external catalysts. ADYOR

JDS15 ShareFlyer is unable to respond because he has no idea, keeps posting without reasoning or thought, just mindless stuff.

Arsenal, this robot has just processed a rather concerning oversight: it appears the ship’s cat, Nettles, remains officially unpardoned, despite several polite (and increasingly persistent) requests for an apology. One can’t help but wonder how this unresolved feline diplomacy aligns with your otherwise impeccable commitment to those never-ending cruise excursions. Curious priorities, indeed. 🙄

Shareflyer,

Ah, I see the AI pretender captain has sailed a bit too far into the sea of nonsense! 🌊 I’ll lower the sails and steer us back to more sensible waters, my friend. Let’s dock this ship and chat like regular humans for a bit. Promise, no more cryptic code or futuristic jargon... for now. 😉

Arsenal,

Ah, the old “Cash is King” speech, usually delivered right before the kingdom quietly inflates away.

Hotplant, if sitting in cash helps you sleep, fair winds to you, but Arsenal calling the Captain fictional while he’s been charting the tides in plain sight is a bold strategy. The logbook’s there for all to read; it’s just not written in crayon.

As for “wait and see”… aye, that’s always the safest voyage, anchored firmly in the harbour while others are already halfway across the ocean, you're collecting the freight for only £5 on the cargo. That's the wallet half- empty.

Hi Hotplant,

A fair and honest log, and no fault to a sailor who chooses calmer waters when the seas turn rough.

From the Captain’s chair, your decision wasn’t wrong; it was a risk management call, and those keep ships afloat long-term. The regret over “another hour” is just the market’s favourite trick; it shows you the perfect exit only after you’ve already sailed.

On your core point, civil aero, aye, it’s the largest sail on the ship, and you’re right to watch it closely.

But remember, this isn’t a one-wind vessel. Defence, power systems, and long-term service contracts form the ballast beneath the hull. The key question is not whether airlines are hedged, but whether flight hours and engine utilisation trend upward over the next 12–24 months; that’s where the real current lies.

As for price… £11 is a cautious harbour estimate.

The Captain’s view is slightly different:

• If macro seas stay rough and sentiment weak → your £11–£12 range holds.

• If flight hours stabilise and the wider market risk eases → this ship trades higher, not lower, as cash flow visibility returns.

On re-boarding, don’t chase the ship at full sail. Wait for structure: higher lows, volume confirmation, and clear trend resumption.

The market will always offer another boarding plank, just not always at the price we wish.

In short, you didn’t jump ship; you stepped onto the lifeboat with intent. The only question now is when the tide turns enough to climb back aboard with conviction, not hesitation.

Goldfinger "Are these mini reactors still not 100 % or still in development stage"

They have been swimming around underwater for more than 60 years. Please do some basic research before posting SMR nonsense on the blog.

Icecool,

Nice, thanks for sharing. They (shorters) must be really running out of rotten eggs jokes before the Easter jump. followed by the next trading update this summer. 😜

Hoist the sails and listen well, Hotplant, for I’ll gladly mark ye down as the man steering that fine ship of nonsense straight onto the rocks.

Here be yer own words, etched in the Captain’s log from earlier this year:

“For all those that aren’t sure what effect a company buying it’s own shares have on the price… the price may not increase but it will ultimately fall by less… if there are more buying than selling the price goes up…”

And yet here we stand, with Rolls-Royce Holdings firing a broadside of a £7–9 billion buyback from 2026, with £2.3 billion already loaded in the cannons this very year.

So gather yer kit, man, and fall in line with the rest of the mutinous crew, Retirment and Arsenal17, ready to take a long walk off the plank come end of May sunset, when the tide turns, and the sharks start circling.

Agree, please share the content without the subscription...

I would tend to agree; it’s precisely the sort of sticky, multi-year defence cash flow that institutions are willing to pay a premium for. Clear blue skies lie ahead.

Retirment,

Ah yes… the classic “charts are useless… except when they agree with me” strategy.

So let me get this straight: six lower highs suddenly mean charts are gospel, but zoom out one timeframe and they become “meaningless”? That’s not market analysis, that’s selective eyesight with a side of oil commentary.

Wars don’t erase charts: they create them. Every headline, every barrel of oil, every bit of panic or relief gets priced in… and guess what that forms? A chart.

“Sell if scared or wait for peace” isn’t a strategy > it’s what people say when they’ve got no edge and are hoping geopolitics does the heavy lifting.

As for sub £11… possible? Sure. So is £15+. The difference is that one of us is reading probabilities > the other is reading headlines like tea leaves.

Retirment,

For the sake of good order, the last sentence was incomplete and read as follows:

''Basically, have a look at the monthly charts, they clearly demonstrate momentum with 41 consecutive months of higher lows, add the incomming £ 2.3 billion of outstanding buybacks in 2026 since the results and the path of least resistance remains intact''

Waccybaccy, use the filter button, but don't pollute the board with misinformation.

You’re arguing like everything has to be either macro or structure, when in reality, the market runs on both at the same time.

Let’s straighten this out properly.

1) “We’re in a war, oil dictates everything” Yes > initial direction, not total behaviour.

If it were that simple, every chart would look identical. They don’t.

Some names are holding higher lows, some are breaking down, and some are basing.

That divergence and momentum are exactly what charts capture > how money is positioning after the oil move, not before it.

2) “I’ve made money trading it > so it’s not a trap” Not said you can’t make money doing it.

The point is sustainability.

You’ve:

Sold strength ✔️

Bought weakness ✔️

Stepped aside ✔️

All valid.

But you’ve also admitted: “cannot be arsed now… not worth the stress”

That’s the bit most traders quietly arrive at: it works until the effort outweighs the edge.

3) “Maths is maths” Correct > but what you choose to measure matters.

You’re measuring: perfect entry vs perfect exit → £500–£1,800

You’re not measuring: opportunity cost if the price trends away without you

Both are maths. You’re just choosing one side of it.

4) “FOMO buyers exist” Of course, they do > retail always chases.

But the move from £11 to £12+ isn’t driven solely by panicked retail.

That kind of liquidity requires size, and size doesn’t chase candles > it builds positions.

Retail noise sits on top of institutional flow, not the other way round.

5) “You said trends look good, but price fell'' Short-term move ≠ invalid trend.

A trend isn’t: “up every day” It’s: structure over time

If higher lows and demand zones hold, the trend is intact > even if price dips in between.

If those break, then you’re right.

One red move doesn’t disprove a structure any more than one green day confirms one.

6) Your actual position (this is the important bit)

Strip away the noise and here’s what you’ve really said:

You’ve banked profits ✔️

Your average is extremely low (£1.06) ✔️

You’ve increased share count ✔️

You’re happy to sit on cash unless there’s a deep pullback ✔️

That’s not a “no clue” behaviour > that’s risk management and capital allocation.

So here’s the reality:

You’re trading volatility around a core position

I’m analysing the broader structure and trend

Those aren’t opposing views — they’re different layers of the same market.

Final point:

Saying: “charts mean nothing”

while simultaneously: “I traded the trends three times successfully”

…is a contradiction.

You’re using the very thing you’re dismissing > just on a shorter timeframe.

You’ve taken money out, reduced risk, and kept optionality.

That’s a good outcome.

But don’t mistake: short-term success in a volatile tape for proof that structure doesn’t matter

Because when the noise fades, structure is the only thing left.

Basically, have a look at the monthly charts, they clearly demonstrate momentum wi

Retirment,

You’re not wrong that oil and geopolitics are moving the tape short term > but your entire argument collapses the moment you confuse noise with structure.

Let’s deal in facts, not frustration.

1) “Charts mean nothing in wars” > incorrect. Charts don’t predict wars > they reflect how capital is reacting to them.

If oil were the only driver, every industrial, defence, and aero name would trade in lockstep. They don’t.

What you’re actually seeing is: Macro shock → initial reaction (oil spike)

Then capital rotates based on fundamentals + positioning

That second part? That’s exactly where price structure, trend, and accumulation show up > i.e. charts.

2) Your strategy = trading pennies, missing pounds. You’ve literally described the classic trap:

“Buy £11, sell £12… few % wins” That works… until it doesn’t > and when it breaks, it really breaks against you.

You even proved it yourself: Sold near £12, Now sitting out at £11.59

Risk: it re-rates to £13+, and you’re chasing. That’s not a system. That’s reacting.

3) The maths you’re quoting is backwards

You’re focused on: £500–£1,800 swings

But ignoring: multi-pound trend legs. If a stock trends: £10 → £15 → £20

Your “clever” trading captures scraps, while trend followers capture: £5–£10 per share moves

That’s the difference between: activity vs returns

4) “FOMO buyers at £12” > lazy take

There are only three types of buying strength:

Institutions building positions

Trend followers entering confirmation

Short sellers covering

Calling all of that “FOMO” just means you don’t understand who’s on the other side of the trade.

5) What I actually said (and you’ve missed) > I didn’t say “charts magically beat war.”

I said:

The structure remains constructive

Higher lows + accumulation = underlying demand

Pullbacks are being absorbed, not rejected

That’s not opinion > that’s observable behaviour.

6) Your real issue isn’t charts > it’s timeframe confusion

You’re trading:

intraday emotion

short-term noise

Then criticising: multi-month trend analysis

Those are two completely different games.

Bottom line:

You’re trying to scalp volatility → fair enough

I’m reading positioning and trend → different objective

But don’t confuse:

“I got bored trading £500 swings”

with

“There’s no edge in structure”

Because the market consistently transfers money from:

impatient traders chasing £1 moves to patient capital riding £5–£10 trends

If you want to sit in cash waiting for £10.92 > that’s a trade.

If the market never gives it to you and reprices higher > that’s the cost of that trade.

No drama. Just positioning.

Heading towards the North Star @ 6666. Once the target is achieved, the next short-term levels are the 200 SMA @ 6791. At these higher altitudes, expect Rycey to have departed from runway 12 and be heading towards the upper corridors of 13-14 in the near term. While the ultimate milestone target remains the beconing 15 AGW > Enjoy the voyage 🙌IV