RE: Share price9 Apr 2024 13:19
Bigtimebilly > You're right, there's a seasonal trend in the stock market with historically better performance from September to April. But interestingly, election years seem to be somewhat separate from this seasonal pattern.
Studies have found:
Overall, election years tend to be positive for the stock market. Looking at historical data, the S&P 500 (a major stock market index) has on average gained around 7-11.6% in election years, which is equal to or slightly better than typical years [US News, BlackRock].
Performance might be even stronger in re-election years for presidents, with some studies suggesting an average gain of over 12% [U.S. News].
The second half of election years often see stronger gains compared to the first half [BlackRock].
So, while the September-April seasonality might hold true in general, election years appear to be a period where the market performs well regardless of the specific months.
As always things to keep in mind:
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Other factors like the economy, interest rates, and global events can significantly impact the stock market.
While election years themselves might not disrupt the seasonal trend, it's always wise to consider the broader economic picture when making investment decisions.