Member Info for Surfit

That was for Nig, not Nig himself.
I agree though Goz, there is a need show decency even on this wacky bb.
(-:
Its all getting a bit OTT on this place.
This bloody virus has f'd up a very volitile sector.
Hope the devil's right though...we are drinking at the last chance saloon.
Rgds sft

3rd 82 surname Melton. Know his first name.
Rgds sft

Ye, bugger bought today thinking the Ruski's would step up...but they just do not need it up like the Saudi's do. Their EU customers need ze gas n oil.
This could be a rough few months. Time to put head in sand and hope Zama get flipping sorted.
Markets traders want this: They make money on every sale. Going down or up.
Sft

All depends on the Russians. Talks ongoing.
The talk is people are not flying but are airlines cutting flights yet? Are people cancelling hols, not that its really holiday season at the moment are are people using their own transport i.e cars more rather than public transport?
ARCM if it is part of their policy to cover debt with a counter i.e. a short, they still have the debt so maybe they may adhere to the policy..or (hopefully) reduce that exposure some. If they are going to reduce it would/ should be before OPEC+ make a call. ARCM must be able to make some profit now?
Will be interesting to see what they do..I am starting to feel they may hang in...thinking the virurs has more to run. These shorters have some cajones.
Added 2x small amounts at 63.4 and 64.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Good discussions from Lat/Sch/cyan on their bb
Thanks gents
Intresting points:
1. Time scales for PMO to restucture their debt
Note: Zama sale and PoO will be crucial (a successful find in Alaska would add to thier ability to borrow more).
2. Time scales for PMO to raise the required 300Mil
3. Time scales for Navitas to raise their hefty %
Still a few variables.
Please note I do not think those lads on the ADFN are deramping at all they are (imo) correctly identifying hazards. Including our own "hazard" i.e. Moody
In doing we can all assess the risk (as best possible).
IMO there does not apprear to be much chance of sanction for 2020?
Any constructive thought? We can have signiture but as usual no good with out the cash.
Still intrested in the past post ( sorry forgotyon postets name) about the US new dept and funding ( to counter Chinese and Russian overseas OnG expansions) That could be Navitas's investment Angel?
Anyway as usual GLA to us Rockys renamed "The Forlorn Hope": death or premotion (-:
Kind Rgds Sft

The hold on the sale of Zama due to the reported cross into Mexico's section?
Would have thought that the seismic surveys would have been fully completed and the reservoir/formation boundries known ages ago.
So why have PMO not made any mention or is this not a real isdue and they are just confirming it to Mexico...who may not want to beluve results. Still strange that there is no real news on this, if it is an issue.

Thoughts / comments anyone
Rgds Sft

Glam, thank you for filling in some detail on Nig. Can appreciate his commitment totaly if he was down there in 82.
I think he just lost it.
I only filtered him when he started mocking the ill ( ill in more ways than one). That is a risky path to go down...if some have metal health issues.
Well, still think the RKH BoD are totally incompetent, the inability to see and consider that worried me to the point where he lost credibility...blindly defending those 2 of the 12+1 monkeys...is a worry.
I have seen and worked under good snr management in the OnG and poor....I know which bracket Moody fits in....results are ALL that matter...and their desions have been inept at best.
IMO of course.
Rgds Sft.

Paul Drayton, thank you for contacting and the post.
Will be interesting if anyone in RKH can be right....
(-:
Rgds Sft

Hi EmeraldCarrots...yes but posters were thinking ARCM position was around where they are now.
The Virus can send it lower but (IMO) not much more ( people will want to take advantage of the drop). The virus is a slow burn with a probale vaccine close. Not like subprime 2008.
So ARCM could start closing soon i.e add the prispect of the March Opec+ looming ahead??
Thoughts?
Rgds Sft

Genuine question: was it not thought that ARCM were challanging the new deal as this was related to their short position? With the sp coming into a position where they can close the short. Would it not follow that their position would change or do they see a problem with the deal that all the other lenders do not? (For their benifit of course)
OR........?
Rgds Sft

Alexios
Wrong on your price and if your into and "following closely" RKH you know the deadline.
Sft

Interesting news LkyMn2
"The Energy Department sale announced Friday is part of a regular drawdown schedule intended to raise $450 million for government programs in fiscal year 2020........"
"Earlier this month, the Trump administration proposed selling 15 million barrels of oil from the emergency stockpile as part of its fiscal 2021 budget plan and has previously proposed reducing it by half. The oil reserve, set up after the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s, has also been tapped in response to emergencies, such as Hurricane Katrina"

Artical says its a REGULAR draw down from the US emergency reserves. So googled it:

"Emergency Drawdowns: The SPR exists, first and foremost, as an emergency response tool the President can use should the United States be confronted with an economically-threatening disruption in oil supplies.
2011 IEA Coordinated Release
2005 Hurricane Katrina Sale
1991 Operation Desert Storm Sale
AND
Crude Oil Test Sales: The SPR has also conducted Test Sales to ensure the readiness of the Reserve and its personnel to carry out a Presidentially-ordered drawdown.
2014 Test Sale
1990 Desert Shield Test Sale
1985 Test Sale"
https://www.energy.gov/fe/services/petroleum-reserves/strategic-petroleum-reserve/releasing-oil-spr
So Trump is either trying to drive the price down further...pushing OPEC+ into making a reduction. Could he be then using that to push a clamp down on OPEC+. I remember he was trying to make their organisation illigal a while back
OR
Is cronically short of cash for goverment spending after signing for the federal employee pay rise in 2019
Federal employees officially averted a second government shutdown in 2019 — and secured new paid parental leave benefits and a 3.1% pay raise for the next year — with a few strokes of the president’s pen Friday evening.

President Donald Trump signed a trio of must-pass bills late Friday night, with little time to spare before the current funding deadline expired at 11:59 p.m"
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/federalnewsnetwork.com/budget/2019/12/trump-signs-shutdown-averting-spending-bills-makes-federal-pay-raise-law/amp/
Rgrds Sft

Dont have such deep pockets Nig
(-; latters
Rgds Sft

Hey FI, I agree. Left another small limt buy at 13.4p
Will revist again Monday. See what happens over the weekend regarding market sentiment with regards to market sentiment over corona virus.
Will look at PMO in Monday. i.e. Opec meeting March/ARCM potential for closing short? This would affect them more than RKH. Which as NigOil is indicating could be a more immediate affect.
GLA, I am away for the the next 4hrs.
Rgds Sft

ARCM have to be a very happy team right now, they through this Corona Virus have been handed a get out of jail card for free.
IMO they have to start settling their shorts at some point. It (IMO) could be before OPEC+ make their next meet. Market panic on the virus could make them hold but they can now support TD's moves with out loss potentially?
Zama funds still going only for debt reduction.
The virus is the wild card.
Rgds Sft

Just added small buy at 13.99p
Rgds Sft

Just have to monitor the PoO
Could be the Ruski's do not mind it heading down a bit more? Winter in Europe good sales on the gas. Could they view it as their chance to stick the knife into the USA fracking (debts/loans) that they know are rearing up for 2020.
Brave soul to sell RKH now....with so many "reported" actions being realised? BUT the only ones of real sp significance are (Only IMO) a large OM payment and FID / sanction. The latter still some way off though? Q3/Q4 Correct?
What to do, what to do.
GLA
Rgds Sft

Interesting find and post CitizenTS.
Thank you. As Auson commented Navitas could have "some" support from this new dept.
A BIT better than as carroteater was proposing way back i.e Chinese CEO for RKH.
I admit I considered the chinese as a posibility for funding but if the US supported Navitas that could significantley reduce an Argentinian threat.
Obviously all conjecture, but could be part of the same jigsaw.
Rgds Sft

Now of course it would be crazy to even think ARCM could have "donate" to a mexican official to look at Zamas position. I mean there is not that much money involved and Mexico is renowned for its incorruptible politicians.
I cant go as far with the CoronaVirus...but damn it that DID come from China!
Serioualy will they start to exit soon, they have had a lot of luck thats for sure...more press next...but in what form and what direction will be interesting I am sure.
Rgds Sft

I would not say they are gutless, what it is (imo) is the finance markets reacting to the verbage used by reporting parties that contantly scaremonger. Sell off some when shorting the other side?
Was chating to a pal, he remarked if there was a world wide ban on shorting and a min hold of 6 month on any shares bought..what would that do for stability? Never happen of course...its all about turning a quick buck/pound/euro etc etc
Seems to work for Buffet though? But he is a fundementals man and not a day trader hey.
Just thoughts
Rgds Sft