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Share tanked by over 3%, what does that tell you? lots and lots of 'theories' - none true of course but what is certain is the SP is depressed and not just because they haven't paid more debt off or announced divs. IAG have done that on purpose. look at the SP and Buys carefully. They will start a share BB scheme in next 14 days then next results will show share BB and some debt paid off as they can't do anything else with the cash and Europa deal ain't going nowhere...
The lower it goes the better it is for guys keeping fthis share LT ( more than 3 months..!)
imho of course.
gla
Good post BV70, but there are two questions in my mind that are not yet answered. please indulge this IAG novice.
You wrote "This means its likely earnings per share for the year will come out at about 37p, meaning the shares currently trade at not much more than four times earnings."
So what is the effect of that on SP?
Another post earlier made a good point about their debt being hedged. If it is hedged at a lower price to current market rates then it would make sense to keep cash in the bank earning more than the debt costs. of course, I dont know if that is the case.
Your view and anyone else please feel free to chip in...
Gla
barc have 3 issues that i feel bear on the sp.
1. they keep getting fined for silly non-compliance issues which could easily be avoided. this is a management/training issue they need to get to grips with.
2. there are too many shares in circulation for the p/e ratio which makes this a poor return on share value/holding.
3. they need to ramp up their bb scheme to increase share value/pe's
sadly, i think the new ceo will just fire people, outsource rather than invest in training, all which will have a good short term sp increase but very poor medium/longterm when the fines and fcup's come to light. of course by that point he'll be sitting pretty drinking ****tails on a beach somewhere - just an opinion of course:-)
gla
It wont reach higher than 162. too much geo crap going on= uncertaintity and markets dont like uncertainty.
If IAG announced a BB scheme and a time frame for dividends that much push the SP above 170, nothing else will....IMHO
~Still a LT shareholder
GLA
I think this share is tanking as it's known in some circles affectionately as the flying pension pot. Gentlemen i am down like many of you, but to bale now would be foolish. I only wish I had more cash on hand to buy more...!
Am I worried? NO. What do I think will happen? i
Inflation coming down,
oil stable if a tad high (just a tad)
strikes petering out,
wages stable
economy still growing!
Russia loosing war of attrition
Oil & Gas already at highest stocked levels in over 20 years (+ mild winter forecast)
Forward pax bookings still STRONG,
Air-miles from covid (estimated at 500million USD) also expired.
IAG will pay down more debt (probably Government loans as a hint of ) but still leave cash balance much higher than last 3Q's
Kerching from here on but like all things and certainly this share -must be patient LOl
GLA
There very good reason for the drop, whole FTSE is dropping cos of headwinds from china Evergrande. 1/4 of chinese economy is based on property and all other areas of china 's economy also slowing down rapidly. Very real risk of global crash and that will lead to wars as Ping will do same as Pootin. Go to war to distract from internal issues. Its what all dictators do when in trouble....
The Share is a good share but now at the mercy of Geopolitics... I sold 66% @ 164.5 yesterday and bought back in with 33% @ 160.6 this am (obviously too soon). So now going to wait as I think this has a lot more to fall, especially given that Q3 figures aren't out til Oct... just an opinion of course.
GLA
Wishful thinking!
This share is still partly sentiment driven , that said great results and as already posted, the expectation is that the SP will slowly climb... no bang, just steady Eddy...
Nuggets I think have yet to be fully digested ...
Strong leisure market Q3 already booked to 80%...therefore significant upside for premium bookings/profits in all cabins
97% pre pandemic levels of pax numbers, only restricted by hull availability. so very good upside to increasing premium returns once new hulls come online (6 787-10's).
My expectation is if IAG manage to pull in delivery of 1 or 2 787's early then Q3 could easily beat forecasts again.
Q3 will be the big litmus test. Traditionally, Oct is a volatile month for markets, especially aviation, but the Q3 results could seriously buck the trend. Then I think it will go over £2/share.
GLA
IAG Long
I sold half my holdings this morning on the rise only because IAG did not share their forward plan re debt pay down. Given how this SP has failed to take off (excuse the pun) looks like many PI's and maybe big institutions have lost faith, not in the brand or the workforce or even the passengers but the IAG board who are pilfering all of the latters.
Given I still have a sizeable holding in IAG if it does well we all do well, I'm just not convinced, hence I sold 1/2. i havent yet put a buy in yet but if I do it will be below 145...
For those that are in negative territory makes sense to hold unless you can predict the SP on day trading (i can't) so i look to medium term.
The big issues affecting this SP are still there and until that is resolved SP or a credible plan put forward (IMHO) will likely not move much unless by big sentiment or big macro economics or geo politics.. And there is of course that shorters might start to bite rather than nibble and that's a danger in itself...
GLA
results will be very good (IMHO) BUT....
Inflation very high
world economy slowing down
Debt huge.
pension debt Galactic
IAG cant do anything about the first 2 but needs to share its plan on how its going to manage the last two. When they do that then SP likely to increase substantially (10%+) and with the world macro risks it appears their holding on to cash for unforeseen 'the things we dont know we dont know!!!) is the plan...
I'm holding but not buying in case it drops more...
GLA
for the last two years, every Q figures proceeded with a rise in SP then a fall in SP once figures were released. this time SP is lingering around or below 150. So looks like nobody wants to get their fingers burnt - again. The issue still seems to be DEBT and INFLATION. Until IAG SET OUT A PLAN to tackle the former (as they cant do too much about the latter except hedge) then looks like SP will suffer regardless of how good the figures will be!
gla