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I'm mostly out now having sold 95% of my holding but really hope that this climbs tomorrow.
I just couldn't take any more disappointment of it not flying again in the near future. made a few quid, could have made a lot more if I had kept my nerve! but don't want to be greedy, back in profit and hope everyone else will be soon.
might jump back in on the fall...but not sure there will be one now... upup and away:-)
GLA
Double edge sword for airlines,
Opec+ have just cut production by 2m bpd due to week demand
Weak demand because of high inflation AND china's demand going down due to Covid lockdown measures.
World demand for oil going down, inflation will plateaux but not before many G20 economies go into recession, if they are not already!
result is weaker demand for business class/premium tickets and aviation in general.
Tomorrows number will be crucial not for how many pax/Load numbers were carried as that is already built in to the SP but how strong are forward bookings for premium travel.....
my take on this imho
GLA
I sold half my holding today also -to bank profit.
Still yjink this will go up as previously posted but my risk appetite is less now I'm in profit.
Friday's pax figures should keep the SP up....
Gla
gla
gentlemen, much good said here so not much to add except context:
1. As pointed out ,the supply side of energy and goods (as they are related) will slowly peak then ease as demand also falls. Good example of that is oil over the last 6 months.
2. If the BoE is correct (and I believe they are), whilst the upcoming recession is the longest expected, it is by far NOT the deepest, thus as we can see already, it is mostly the poorer that will suffer not the middle classes ....Caveat
3. The caveat is the tax burden to be announced. Rishi dicki is well aware that if the recession last 2 years it will become the most important election issue (if its not already!), so he is more likely to tax very wealthy (even his wife!), windfall tax energy, dispose of triple lock, get all departments to find savings. Then he might tax earners of 100k plus more also whilst also lifting the tax threshold to directly help the poorest income earners...
rates are only expected to peak at 4.5%, that is a far cry from the 70's, 80's and 90's peak and with half households already locked in to fixed rates I think the 'middle class' pain will be muted.
Translation to IAG... I see strong demand continue in the leaisure sector and business demand pick up, plus IAG now has some elasticity in it's pricing ergo, still bumble at 120's. Once next results are out will climb to 130's if not a little before...
all in my mortal HO
Gla
i think this is the reason the SP fell...
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/air-france-klm-beats-quarterly-estimates-travel-recovery-2022-10-28/
gla
Gentlemen, i share your frustration but this is predictable, especially today where there will be some profit taking and a red day. All considering it's actually a small drop!
posted the below earlier expect 120 break and stay above by next friday... (two weeks at most)
Gla
Good results but even better forecast.
Although it's a red day today on the stock market this will start to pick up next week, especially after IAG announce the debt they will pay off. They are cash rich (for a change) so they will be very motivated to pay 3 billion of loans back asap. That will please markets and reduce debt burden.
I expect this to happen in the next 12 months,
Then Div announcement.
So SP will bumble along in the 120's then slowly 130's, for next few months, 150's by march. Expect big jump after that.
Caveat: not much holding this up by way of sentiment now which means SP is reflected on fundamentals. If sentiment takes hold could fly but I dont think that will happen.
Good results but even better forecast.
Although it's a red day today on the stock market this will start to pick up next week, especially after IAG announce the debt they will pay off. They are cash rich (for a change) so they will be very motivated to pay 3 billion of loans back asap. That will please markets and reduce debt burden.
I expect this to happen in the next 12 months,
Then Div announcement.
So SP will bumble along in the 120's then slowly 130's, for next few months, 150's by march. Expect big jump after that.
that's my take.
Caveat: not much holding this up by way of sentiment now which means SP is reflected on fundamentals. If sentiment takes hold could fly but I dont think that will happen.
gla