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I’ll be honest, I didn’t expect this rise. I thought we’d be straight back to c29p after no RNS. Interesting! Early Friday FOMO or people hoping for intraday?
There is no guarantee of a sale. They need to include that wording for exactly that reason. Google “There can be no certainty that an offer will be made, nor as to the terms on which any offer will be made.” and you’ll find other companies that use the exact same wording. It’s standard.
Many people here are confident of a sale, or even very confident, but that’s different to it being guaranteed.
Depends whether you'd think there would be a leak. If no leak then I don't think there's any reason to think that the share price would rise in anticipation.
Even just looking at this board, some people think the meeting might be relevant to us, some people think it definitely isn't. So it makes sense that the rumour isn't strong enough to affect the SP.
It's very vague speculation and could be absolutely nothing. I don't think anyone thinks it is definitely the sale. It's a case of "could this be relevant? could this be it?" not "this is it! this is definitely the big news!"
F4F (aka FFS?) - I was saving you some steps.
1. Go to the original meeting note that Dickie just posted
2. Find the ONLY point on the agenda
3. In Russian that looks something like "1. O CAENKE KOMNAHNN" (I can't post it here as LSE will show Russian characters as question marks)
4. Highlight those three words, right click and Google search
5. You then get the result that I just shared. You know, the one you said is "No way relevant to anything at all".
That result is all about M&A.
My point is to do the translation last, to avoid introducing uncertainty. For instance, you could translate it on the original website, which comes out as "On the company's transaction". Google search that and you get all kinds of non-M&A things. However, you've introduced inaccuracy unnecessarily by translating then Googling, rather than Googling then translating.
I hope that helps clarify for you, though somehow I suspect it won't.
Don’t translate it then Google.
Google the original Russian.
That gets you this:
https://www.google.com/search?q=%D0%9E+%D1%81%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%B5+%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B8&safe=active&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB793GB793&ei=2lqhX4qqAdGigQbV_7vYDQ&start=0&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwiK_6SkvebsAhVRUcAKHdX_Dts4ChDy0wN6BAgbEC8&biw=2133&bih=1076
Which, for me at least, are results entirely about M&A.
Is the NN meeting definitely about EUA? No, of course not.
Could the NN meeting be about EUA? Yes, it could.
Would that breach an NDA? No, a company saying that their board is going to meet doesn’t breach an NDA when it doesn’t mention any specifics.
Why is there such strong interest in it? Because of NN’s close links to EUA as a potential buyer and because all signs point to the NN meeting being about M&A in some way.
Does a lack of RNS this morning mean it’s a “red herring”? No, because the meeting has quite possibly not happened yet. They’re not going to RNS “Another company is having a meeting today”. The point is that something may result from that meeting in the near future.
This is not difficult.
Trying to post a link to the Google search directly, but might not work as I know LSE can be funny with links...
https://www.google.com/search?q=%D0%9E+%D1%81%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%BA%D0%B5+%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B8&safe=active&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB793GB793&ei=2lqhX4qqAdGigQbV_7vYDQ&start=0&sa=N&ved=2ahUKEwiK_6SkvebsAhVRUcAKHdX_Dts4ChDy0wN6BAgbEC8&biw=2133&bih=1076
The meeting might determine/finalise whether there is news ready to be announced.
So we know that the NN board are meeting on Thursday, we know that they're meeting to discuss "? ?????? ????????" (leaving in Russian to avoid debates about the exact English translation) and we know that googling that phrase produces results that are entirely about mergers and acquisitions. I think we can safely say they're meeting to discuss an acquisition.
So the only question that remains: is it EUA?
I don't normally buy into these rumours too much, and so may be getting carried away this time... but I'm starting to agree that this might have some substance to it.
Some people are too quick to shout leak... If you didn’t think the drop from 30p to 28p was a leak that the deal had fallen through, you shouldn’t think a rise from 28p to 30p is a leak that the deal is about to be announced.
I think the chance of a sub-28p sale is essentially zero. There is however a risk of no sale, which would cause the price to drop below 28p.
Personally, I think that risk of no sale is very low. But as people say, WTFDIK?!
Beware of people that say it’s 50/50 because there are two possibilities. That’s not how stats work of course.
Every time we went on holiday when I was a child, my mum would worry that our bags would get lost. At our destination, we’d stand in the airport at the baggage carousel and she’d get increasingly worried, soon she’d start to say “there’s no sign of it... there’s just no sign of it...” as other people’s bags appeared and ours didn’t.
Until, of course, it did. There was never going to be “a sign” - just an anxious period of waiting until it would suddenly be there.
On twitter yesterday I saw someone saying that there’s no “glimmer” of EUA news. There’s not going to be.
The news will just arrive suddenly, like a suitcase (full of cash).
Vlad’s quote is by far the most important part of this RNS.
They initially agreed not to release EL’s name. They then got permission to release it in relation to auto immune work, but haven’t for CDX. So they say EL for the former, GlobalCo for the latter.
A bit silly, given what we know, but easily possible given legal agreements? More likely than two GlobalCos?
Very happy to be wrong, of course!
Reminder, for those who need it, that we know it’s Eli Lilly.
26th June RNS
“ GlobalCo is the same organisation with which the Company is collaborating to develop its CDX antibody product candidate and with which it also has a research agreement for the development of the Company's humanized mice.”
Same here @dufry - waiting on both! I’m hoping EUA first to be honest, to then invest in HEMO for the longer term, but can’t be too choosey about these things I suppose!!
I think you could click on someone else's post, then change the name in the URL?
E.g.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/rmr1969/
But put their name instead of yours. Does that work?
Just noticed he sent this 8 minutes ago...
@amsandler9876
Nine years of happiness and more!
Thank you, my love!
Did the share price just rise 10% because Vlad is having a happy anniversary?!
Hi all,
Do we have any idea of a minimum length of time that DLA Piper would be involved to get the legal side of a deal like this sorted?
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe they were appointed in September (30 Sep RNS said “recently”)? And a month seems quite quick?!
I know people make the points about not wanting expensive lawyers involved for too long, and that they’d only come in for the final stages of a deal, hopefully, but still... are there any examples of other deals that suggest around about now is a realistic timescale?
Thanks and all the best
Hi all,
Would you say there is any reason to expect "the" RNS to land at a particular time of day, whether before opening, intraday or after close?
I'm asking because I have no experience of a sale process like this and - I admit - I quite like the thought that the RNS could drop at any moment. It's impatient and arguably a bit sad, but there you go... I won't deny it!