Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The market has had enough of ' potentially exciting developments' and ' non - binding Memoranda of Understanding '. Mr Lyth and Hogan's Heroes, ( great sitcom about a POW camp) and where ANR shareholders are at the moment trying to break free from 0.4p, need to realise that we need to prove the 100- 140 MT of coal in Arkaringa first and foremost. No more hot air and RNSs which result in the SP falling.
Someone has sold close to 20m shares in five trades in the last four trading days. They've made a huge profit because they bought in at 0.05 last October. Tired expression I know but ' Wake up and smell the Coffee'.
Nick Lyth, if he had any hair, will be tearing it out after a succession of optimistic RNSs which have resulted in the SP down by two thirds since he took over chief executive. Unfair? On balance, yes. He's worked hard and we're in a much better position than we were. Still, he can't shake off the years of mistrust and over promising. He hasn't got a good team around him and the two big investors, Zorbas and Hogan, have more question marks around them than Brexit.
ANR is the next Whitehaven coal. If only were it true. Whitehaven SP today is Aus$5; it was 0.38 in Feb 2016. They have 41MT of proved and probable coal in the Gunnedah basin in New South Wales and a 18 year mine life. 2MT of saleable coal this year. The macro climate for coal is looking great. They have a sound operating history and strong management team. Oh well, we can only dream........
Give credit where it's due, Nick Lyth is working hard against the strong headwinds of investors' mistrust that he'd inherited - hence the collapse in SP since he took over. It's looking a lot more promising but we still need hard evidence of mineable coal. If so, ridiculously cheap at 0.3p.
Reasons to be cheerful - let's hope so. But, Reggie, we do need something to drill - preferably 100m tonnes of dryish coal,easily extractable that China or someone in SE Asia wants. We should know soon enough.
Nothing untoward Guzzler1962. For some reason I could not login last week as sunlituplands and had to reregister,but they wouldn't accept sunlituplands as ' already taken'. But I seem to be back to my original name. Sorry for the confusion.
No apologies needed from Investorworld. I suspect it was a put up job. I understand NL flies today to Aus for his rendezvous with fate: oblivion, or success. All we need to know is if there is enough economically viable coal. Anything else is hot air.
Reggie, I do admire your unbounded enthusiasm. You are the Captain Mainwaring of the Altona Home Guard. All this good news flow and someone is still selling. I think I know who. You can talk up the action but until it's a proven, derisked resource of 100m tonnes or so, the SP isn't moving. Remember the Chinese saying, ' The bird only sings because it's got a song'.
The share price will stay where it is until this resource is 100% proven. Altona has overpromised and underdelivered for too long and we've all been led a merry dance. I'm not sure Nick Lyth understands this, hence his frustration that the share price has tanked since he took over. Nevertheless, he's got a workable strategy, the global demand and sentiment for coal is increasing and RTZ sold an untapped coalmine, similar to ours, for $200m to Whitehaven. That's 40 x our capitalisation. Stand and deliver.
Seemingly no time to waste if you read today's Times business section page 45. Glencore buys two coalmines from RTZ in Queensland for $1.7bn. Both underdeveloped. Growth driven by Asia set to rise to 5.5 bn tonnes in 2022. If we the chutzpah, experience and credibility of Glencore's Board, ANR would be motoring to the 'broad, sunlit uplands'.
A good, focused RNS this morning which, along with the two previous RNSs, you'd reasonably expect to see a sustained uplift in the share price. Not so - in fact it's dropped quite a bit over the past 12 weeks. Nick Lyth and the Board must be rattled. They have overestimated their own credibility in being able to deliver a project of this nature, and underestimated the huge reputational damage to ANR over the recent years. Only a proven coal resource, and JV money from the Chinese in the bank matter now.
From the jaws of victory. Nick Lyth's poorly conceived PR campaign, ' We're up for Sale', but until we know what there is to sell, the market will blow a big raspberry. We need concrete news and fast. An MoU from the Chinese is just a piece of paper. The only thing that keeps us ' Old Timers' in the game is that the share price has to hit 2.5p for NL to make some decent dough. That's surely incentive for him to get his act together.
What's a CPR. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation? Seems appropriate.
We're going nowhere with this share price - a playground for AIM casino day traders to make or lose a few hundred quid- until the Board prove the resource, de-risk and sell it, either to a big player or we see Caterpillar 797F trucks trundling down to the Port ready to ship the coal to countries wanting to buy the stuff. Nothing else matters, MoU with the Chinese or fine words from the Board. After 10 years, nobody believes a word ANR or Northland securities say. Remember the film Jerry Maguire ' Show me the money'. Well, show us the coal.
The best news we've had for some considerable time and we're down 10%. First, the broker and Nomad, Northland Capital, should be fired. Clearly useless in presenting a positive message about its client and probably too associated with its murky past. Secondly, Nick Lyth needs to get out on a ' roadshow' with a credible broker to tell the story. He also needs to realise, as does the rest of the Board and the big investors, Logan and Zorbas, that the reputational damage to ANR in the past was deep rooted, and trust takes a long time to rebuild. Stupid time to sell; great time to buy.
This is good news. Upbeat and positive. Whitehaven Coal share price is AusD 4.91 - this is the Australian company in New South Wales - whose prospects and success the Altona Board wish to mirror. At this level, a strong buy for ANR.
This is good news. Upbeat and positive. Whitehaven Coal share price is AusD 4.91 - this is the Australian company in New South Wales - whose prospects and success the Altona Board wish to mirror. At this level, a strong buy for ANR.
Nick Lyth had to get something out after his trip because he promised to do so at the AGM in early January. I was interested that they've applied for another licence adjacent to Westfield. I know the Board is doing everything it can to get this up and running. I don't expect any really transformational news - operational plan/ funding etc till the end of Q1/ March. In fairness, that's what Nick said at the AGM.
I haven't heard a squeak even from my older cobber,Mr Croc Dundee, in the outback, but Nick Lyth is back from Australia this coming Monday. I expect an update/ RNS towards the end of next week.