Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Reggie, I've always admired your optimism and you and I have stayed the course, but you're running away with yourself. It's highly unlikely that the 800m tonnes is viable. We discussed a more conservative figure of 100m tonnes at the AGM. That's still pretty swift at $100 a tonne and a share price way beyond 0.5p. As for Philip Sutherland, he's a political bureaucrat who has sat on South Australian mining Boards, but he's no engineer. He also knew what a crap artist Lambert was, and did nothing.
Wolferlaf and Joebop have raised a relevant point: the lack of mining experience on the Altona Board. This was raised this morning at the AGM. The Board is meeting the specialist mining consultants, RPM, next week in Arkaringa. Still, I'm surprised the share price has dropped off today. With the coal price at over $100 a tonne and and, say, just 100m tonnes of easily extractable coal from an original resource of 7bn tonnes, the arithmetic adds up to at least 5p a share. Still, sentiment is everything.
Shares won't pull much higher on this volume and, frankly, nothing much has changed. As Nick Lyth, CEO, said this morning, ' let's prove it up, de-risk it, sell it. We probably won't have more than 100m tonnes of saleable coal that is ' reasonably dry and reasonably shallow'. It's best to take a conservative view. At $100 a tonne that's $10bn. Glencore's production cost per tonne is $44. Nick is seeing Sino - Aus in Hong Kong on Saturday, then off to Australia to discuss report with RPM and start formulating a viable plan. Update - end January. End Q1 - business plan. There is still a credibility issue with the Board. Nick accepts this, but there is at last some drive and momentum.
I think we will see the report early next week, or on the morning of the AGM - Wednesday 10th at 1130 - 30 Percy Street, London W1T 2DB. I understand there is a Board visit to Australia shortly thereafter.
I understand a formal complaint has been lodged with LSE over the content and tone of some of Yasx's comments.
No great surprises here, but at least a sense of strong commitment to a more simple, coherent strategy. My only concern was there was no mention, or confirmation of Sino Aus financial support. I suspect the Chinese are waiting until the report arrives in early to mid January. Trust still remains very low in ANR, understandably given its awful record of over promising and under delivering. But the new Board are the only game in town and, more importantly, they don't really reap the rewards of their efforts until the share price reaches 2.5p. I remain optimistic.
Guzzler 1962, That's how I interpreted what my broker friend told me. Certainly a positive given Altona's lamentable history. No broker worth his salt would put a client anywhere near Altona unless they thought Its prospects had changed. We won't definitively know this until the report comes out.
Just in case you're wondering why the share price barely moves despite the huge amount of buying, a broker friend of mine tells me that those brokers who took part in the share placing haven't yet taken delivery of the shares yet,but are pre- selling them to their clients. Hence the huge buys, including one of 150k yesterday. This will be matched, in due course, by sells as they take their profits. It all seems a bit odd but that's the casino for you. If we get good news in the next week or so from the report on coal quality, then we should see a sustained rise.
With close to 6m bought so far today with just 400,000 sold; and 4m more buys than sells last Friday, it's hard to believe the share price rises just around 4% at this level. And yet some days, someone sells �250 worth of shares and the stock plummets 10%. Maybe someone who is more savvy on how mickey mouse market makers on AIM operate could enlighten us all?
Well at least things are beginning to happen. I'm pleased to see Nick Lyth and Philip Sutherland are not taking any additional money but are being incentivised through share options. That's an important statement and a break from the Lambert days with huge salaries and no measurement of performance. The next milestone is the report from RPMG. There seems to be a sense of optimism about this, hence the Board changes and new non executive in the experienced Mr Kloepper. Overall, good news and a promising future for a much underrated share price.
I can't share Reggie 72's unbridled enthusiasm, but nevertheless this study, long overdue, is an important and welcome step. The new investors mean business and want to crack on as quickly as possible to make the most of the big increase in the price of coal and the recognition that you can't store wind and sun, so coal is still in big demand both in South Australia and in export markets such as India and China. Remember the size of the resource : 7bn tonnes: even if the Westfield tenement has just 700m tonnes of viable coal at $100 at tonne, that's $70bn. Phew!
Apologies, I made an arithmetical error yesterday. Even if we shift 800m tonnes - that's about 10% of the total resource - that's £80bn not £8bn. Mind boggling. I've met the two investors at the General Meeting - I think they now own 30% with Kloeppers? - but I can't pass judgement. But they're the only game in town for Altona at the moment.
In answer to your question, Reggie 72, not until we see the report on the quality of coal. That hasn't been commissioned yet by Mr Zhang - the Chinese as we were told yesterday move in different ways. Still, the two investors mentioned in my post yesterday weren't too concerned. This is the second biggest coal resource in the world today. Even if we move 10% of the coal, well that's 800 million tonnes at $100 a tonne: $8bn. Take out all the likely costs and it still looks pretty rosy. Hence their involvement. I suspect we will have a clear plan and strategy by the end of the year.
The meeting went well. Much better than most of us long - term investors expected. The two big investors, John Zorbas and Liam Hogan were there and explained in a rational and credible way why they had pitched in to Altona. They know the trade off between risk and reward in junior mining companies. They know their stuff, have good contacts with all the people that matter to make this company succeed. They know how the Chinese like to work and said we are fortunate to have JV partners at this level who had cash - $35m - to get this up and running. A few hurdles to cross, but in essence: ' Huge resource, coal price great, get a coherent plan and management in place, de-risk the proposition, attract a big player to scoop up Altona'. Buy now. It'll be 1.5p by the end of the month.
I don't know but for those of us who turn up to hear the future strategy tomorrow, we may be in for a pleasant surprise. Certainly, I haven't been so optimistic for quite some time. Still, you never quite know with this company. Let's see.
1130am. The offices of Welbeck Associates ( Accountants), 30 Percy Street, London W1T 2DB.
After the frenzy of last week with day traders squirelling around at the margins and long - term investors seeing a glimpse of light, things are settling down. If you're keen that we get back to where we were so many years back, then turn up on Tuesday 31st at 1130 for the General Meeting and ask the right questions. More importantly, we should see Mr Kloeppers and the other new Board member, yet to be appointed. You need to see the whites of their eyes and listen hard to what the strategy and prospects going forward are; and where the finance is coming from.
I wouldn't worry too much about the placees making a lot of money. Risk and reward. It's still a big risk and frankly , this time last week, I thought we were dead in the water. If we have a good chief executive - new Board member -? then we will all be laughing - not to the bank but at least we might have a small grin on our faces. ANR has been bedevilled by chronically bad management. Let's hope that's finally behind us.
Market makers love messing around at this level on AIM. But it's clear, given the volumes, that people outside the usual ANR suspects are cottoning on to something that may prove transformational for Altona's prospects. And that's to do with fresh, experienced management who know what they're doing. We still wait for the report on the extent to which there is enough dry coal. But I can't help think that Mr Kloeppers and his colleagues would have bothered to get involved unless there were real prospects of success and decent profits.
The Boardroom has been disappointing, very disappointing. The new appointment is to be welcomed. Mr Kloepper might finally get a grip of this ' World class resource'. And why would he even bother himself if it was a dead duck. It's still twitching - just.