NPV15 Oct 2025 12:51
I’ve been wondering what kind of NPV we’re going to end up with once the DFS is released. We’ve seen recently that FAR has gone from a PFS Capex of $100million and an NPV of $2billion to a DFS Capex of $520million and and NPV of $748 million, which puts into perspective that these things don’t always go the way we envisage.
Having said that I’ve been looking at the Blencowe PFS and wondering how these numbers might develop as we approach the DFS release. MR has always stated that they want to “blow these numbers out of the park”, which gives some confidence the numbers will be impressive. He also stated that the ratio of Capex to NPV is probably more important than NPV itself, as the FAR case clearly highlighted. Therefore, I don’t really see a FAR situation developing here.
I do see some increase in capex from $62million at PFS and would assume through inflation and additional costs (as the build scope becomes more defined) that this number will approach something closer to $100million. However, I also see the NPV increasing due to the likely positive impact on the basket price ($1307 at PFS), partially due to the SPG facility, which wasn’t included at PFS stage. I don’t think drilling results / extra resource definition will affect NPV too much as MR has already stated that they are limited by what they can sell, not what they can mine, so any plan set out at DFS stage should be governed on that basis. The basket price outlook could see further improvement with China’s recent actions in restricting supply to western countries, although this might not be included within the NPV.
All things considered, I’d be happy with a $100million capex and NPV anywhere above $500million (but hopefully closer to $750million). All in my humble opinion of course and my fingers are well and truly crossed!
Anyone else had any thoughts on this?
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