Member Info for SuMkRaK

The two mines should be churning out millions of profit with the current gold price. Shame the inflated gold price didn't happen sooner - we might have had a piece of a highly profitable company.

Having said that, if Dan was still in charge, I'm sure he could have quite easily turned it into a loss making operation!

Really starting to dislike the man?! Wow....that's harsh. And why? Because the share price isn't increasing as fast as you'd like? The company has absolutely ZERO control of when warrants are exercised.

I also wish the share price would go north faster but sometimes you have to be patient. We're all invested in what is, quite frankly, one of the best plays on the market right now with a huge disconnect between actual value and MCAP. Mike Ralston has done a remarkable job over the last few years to get Blencowe to where they are now. I wish all the other companies I've invested in had a CEO who does what he says and continually delivers on his stated objective's. Lots of juniors on the market go nowhere fast and get properly diluted to hell and back through raise after raise after raise whilst making next to no real progress at all. Blencowe have pretty much met every stated target they have and produced a ridiculously good DFS to take to market. I've got no complaints whatsoever.

One of the biggest buys I've seen on here. 750k shares!

Worth remembering EEE did a 3 bag in 3 weeks (10p to 30p, roughly 1st June to 24th June) and a 7 bag in 3 months (10p - 70p, roughly 1st June to 4th September).

This looks likely to be the real beginning of the re-rate here. I'm sure by the end of Feb the share price will be far north from here.

Yahoo shows todays volume at 11.5 million against an average of 5.4million. LSE showing nothing but there's definitely lots of trading going through.

At the top end of my expectation this result. WOW! Not sure I've seen an IRR as high as 96% anywhere before.

I was invested in FAR a few weeks ago in the run up to their DFS release. In the trading day before the release, the price jumped from 9p to 14p. Unfortunately, the disappointing DFS release meant that the price dropped on announcement day.

I'm expecting a similar price action here in advance of DFS but obviously not the drop after the release!

I think if the price picks up this afternoon we may see DFS tomorrow. If not, I'm expecting a rally tomorrow and then DFS Monday. All on the assumption the DFS is released prior to the conference starting Tuesday. However, It may well be released before MR speaks on Thursday 4th to create a bigger impact at the conference - who knows! But we do know it is coming very soon.

The trades in black all look like buys to me looking at the price level.

LW, Yes I think for a £20k ISA subscription per year, £8k can be investment only (i.e. not held in CASH ISA's). You'd think more money would flow into the stock market as a result.

Candler, yes it is a bit confusing the way its worded and $20million does seem a little too good to be true. Hopefully the DFS will reveal all!

I did think the JORC would push us beyond 10p and the DFS would take us to 15-20p initially. Now it seems they might both land together so I'll go with 15-20p by this time next week....fingers crossed!

Candler, I thought similar but that's not how it reads in the document.

I think total Capex for all phases might be around the $100million mark but phase one only seems to be $20million total. The document also states that they are targeting an "all-debt funded" financing package but my be required to supplement with an equity raise also.

Phase one can be funded initially and by the time phase two comes around, raising further finance should be more straightforward and less dilutive.

Had a quick glance at the prospectus earlier.

Only $20million Capex requirement for Phase 1 production and there's $6million worth of "in the money" warrants that could potentially raise part of that cash leaving only $14million required for initial capex? Did anybody else read that the same? Seems very low and would be pretty straightforward to raise that kind of money quite quickly.

Absolutely love your confidence, but I struggle to believe this will be sold for multiples of NPV.

A post DFS bid of 15-20% NPV or a post funding bid of 40% NPV (figures that have previously been mentioned) I'd be delighted with.

A multiple of the NPV? Do you mean a bid in excess of the NPV valuation?!

To me personally, I wouldn't be selling shares right now ahead of what is likely to be a significant rise.

To an institutional investor its a different game. They may have internal rules on shareholdings etc. They likely manage their exposure and risk in a much more disciplined way than retail investors like ourselves.

I'm pretty sure they're probably sat holding a large proportion of the outstanding warrants that are "in the money". And, like ourselves, rubbing their hands together at the impending re-rate.

No necessarily true. They'll have warrants at between 4p and 8p (if I remember correctly). 4p warrants are well in the money.

Jangada have exited but not so sure about RAB Capital.

They've participated in most fundraises over the last few years and are likely to hold millions of warrants, all of which are "in the money" now. They might have an upper threshold of equity they'd like to hold in Blencowe and will sell shares in the market before converting warrants for a profit? It wouldn't surprise me to see them back above 3%, potentially well above.

Not sure why there's a lack of a TR1 - as far as I'm aware, it is mandatory to report to the company once the 3% threshold has passed. If there's no TR1 reported one of two things is true: 1. no holder has more than 3% right now. 2. a holder has more than 3% and the company hasn't notified the market. Not sure what the exact rules on this are really.

Legalwolf, very good point!

A few years ago, I managed (luckily, on a speculative punt) to 10 bag on GGP.

However, I've never before seen a share where the stars are aligning quite as well as this one is.

Chromo, it's not a JORC valuation as such. The JORC is basically a release stating what kind of ore reserves the company can use in their defined feasibility study (DFS). A significant uplift in the JORC reserves compared to their pre-feasibility study (PFS) should mean greater DFS value and is one of the indicators that the DFS numbers will exceed what was stated at PFS. Fingers crossed on this one!

The valuation figures will be in the DFS. The main ones to look out for are the Capex and the NPV (net present value). At PFS stage, Capex was $62million and NPV was $482 million. The CEO (Mike Ralston) has stated he's aiming to "blow these out of the park". There are some that think NPV will be close to £1billion, some (like me) are more conservatively hoping for $700millon+ with a Capex of less than $100million.

MR has stated that post-DFS valuations are usually in the region of 15-20% of NPV (no guarantees here).

At $700 million NPV, this would be $105- $140million (USD), which is around £81-£108million (GBP). Roughly equivalent to a share price of 21p - 28p.

At £1billion NPV, this would be $150 - $200million (USD), which is around £115 - £154million (GBP). Roughly equivalent to a share price of 30p - 40p.

The above figures indicate that potential valuation gain above the current share price could be somewhere in between 2.7x and 5.1x.

Hope that helps.