Member Info for stt1

Hallsworthy,

At least you'll be happy TLY are gaining contracts, extensions/wins (another 3 today) and the Chairman, as well as IIs, there have been adding.

;-)

Have a read of the secondary placing rns from Feb:

Brokers Cavendish or Peel Hunt, would know if the Chairman has sold out, as they would have had to give written consent.

From the placing rns:

"The Selling Shareholders have agreed with Cavendish and Peel Hunt not to dispose of any further Ordinary Shares for a period of 12 months without the prior written consent of Cavendish and Peel Hunt."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xe1g9jw/export

Hallsworthy,

You obviously can't add up. Given you still haven't answered the red flags I posted, it's not surprising.

Readers can use their own calculators and will see that those 2 sells do add up exactly to the Chairman's remaining holding.

Try upgrading your abacus to a modern calculator.

Obviously all those rampers who said the he still retains a significant holding will have to come up with another excuse to make it sound positive.

Has the Chairman dumped all of his remaining holding?

Look at the 2 sells trades at 12.08:

18,844,109

2,315,068

Add them up and they equal the Chairman's balance holding after he dumped the majority in a secondary placing at 28p, 21,159,177:

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xe1g9jw/export

Oilbaggar,

You obviously have huge confidence in HVO's future.

Why post about trades or TU several months time?

Unless you're trading or looking for opportunity to sell out.

"The company generates large amounts of cash with upfront non refundable deposits and hence there is potential to increase the dividend."

Why didn't mention dividend in the TU last week. If they had any intention of announcing a decent dividend, dividend policy then they would have announced it.

Oilbagger,

"Mo under promises and over delivers which is refreshing. He is of course being incentivised by a generous LTIP but given the significant financial progress"

Does he? Where's the 15% yoy growth he was referring to in fy presentation?

He's got >7m options, reasons to talk up the company.

If the growth is so great, prospects are so great then why did the Chairman dump majority of his holding in a discounted secondary placing at 28p????

Not long before the CEO can start taking his options. The Chairman has already taken millions off the table.

Oilbagger,

"Some people fixate on revenue growth "

Yes, you have to question why the company, themselves, repeatedly mention revenue, whether it be for the year ahead or target, don't you????

Maybe someone should tell the CEO not to mention revenue so much. I'm only posting using their preferred metric. :-)

Look at the fy results, April:

"Outlook

Revenue guidance of £62 million for 2024, H1 2024 weighted, with sustainable EBITDA margins

90% of 2024 revenue guidance already contracted with good visibility into 2025

New medium-term target of growing Group revenue to £100 million by 2028 achievable through strong organic growth complemented by small bolt-on acquisitions that meet the Company's strategic and financial criteria"

and in his comments, the CEO mentions "revenue" 3 times in 1 sentence.... "revenue visibility", "Revenue target of £62m", "objective .... reaching £100m by 2028".

That's 3 times the CEO mentioned "revenue" in 1 sentence, without any mention of other metrics.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rggld0r

Then the TU last week, again revenue repeatedly mentioned:

"The Group reaffirms its full year revenue guidance of £62 million and anticipates that EBITDA margins will be at the upper end of market expectations on the basis of the strong performance in the first half of 2024 and full visibility for the remainder of the year. Its organic growth strategy is also underpinning the Group's medium-term revenue target of £100 million by 2028, the majority of which is expected to be achieved through sustained organic growth complemented by small, strategic bolt on acquisitions."

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/ryoe29x

Is the mention of 'revenue' only relevant when the metric is in favour and when referring to their targets years ahead?

So the company believes in repeatedly mentioning revenue as their preferred metric, don't they? Why shouldn't others follow the company's lead???

User

"We are seeing a flutter of activity here at this time after a long period of sideways action."

Given the CEO's >7m options, awarded only last year, back dated a year and excercisable from few months time, there will be a lot of talking up over.

My assertion has been they are talking it up to sell. Question is, given there's supposedly so much growth and huge barriers to entry, why would they want to sell now?

"The LTIP has been designed to reward, incentivise and retainMr Khan to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders. The deemed date of award is 24 February 2022, which is the date Mr Khan was appointed CEO. Under the LTIP,Mr Khan has been awarded 7,227,273 nominal cost long term incentive options ("LTIP Options " ) over ordinary shares of £0.001 each in the

Company.

Vesting of the LTIP Options is conditional upon a three-year total shareholder return ("TSR") performance against an initial 11p reference price. A portion of the LTIP Options will vest on the third anniversary of the date of award subject to the achievement of a minimum 10% CAGR TSR performance increasing on a straight-line basis to vesting in full subject to the achievement of a 22.5% CAGR TSR performance.

The award of the LTIP Options is also subject to continued employment, malus and clawback provisions and will vest in full on a takeover of the Company.

"

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/x21q5mw/export

There are several PIs here who were buying when HVO (as Orph) was in the 40s. They obviously want to talk it up as well to reduce their losses.

Given the supposedly huge growth prospects, which incidentally isn't what the company newsflow has been showing, why did the Chairman dump majority of his holding in a DISCOUNTED secondary placing at 28p only a few months ago????

It's understandable if an exec sells a few at full price but not dump a majority in a discounted placing.

They were supposed to sell 25%

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xlj8m3r/export

But the result a day later, showed the Chairman dumped majority of his holding

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/xe1g9jw/export

I believe the Chairman knows more about HVO than any II or BB poster. I see the Chairman dumping majority of his holding in a discounted secondary placing as a red flag.

The company newsflow shows growth rate has slowed significantly.

Challenge trials have been around for centuries.

During 2020, when covid hit and several companies around the world were rushing to produce Vaccines, how many covid contracts did HVO gain during 2020??? That must be a simple question for the regular rampers.

Several companies in India/China produced vaccines very quickly?

Where there's demand, other companies enter the market. That's a simple business basic fact.

Do some research, look at India/China.

Thompi

"Along with financial savings and providing a data framework for regulatory wins such as fast tracks"

Why did clients largely pay for the new facility? Was it out of charity for HVO?

No, Pharmas have the most to gain, pay a few million for a new facility and save much more, whilst passing on the risk and work in setting up projects to HVO. Pharmas benefit.

I think there's a questionable business model.

The benefit

Dino

"Considerable cash will allow such a start-up to develop similar facilities"

A rival Company doesn't need considerable cash as HVO has stated, the new facilities were largely paid for by clients.

And there is plenty of empty floors at 40 Bank Street, which I'm sure the landlord would love to rent out.

When covid hit, several companies/govn developed vaccines very quickly. How many covid contracts did HVO win?

When there's demand, other companies will enter the market. What's stopping a Chinese/Indian company setting up a similar company, spending a few million setting up staff & facilities. Lack of demand, as can be seen by the lack of revenue growth rate over the past couple of years.

"If a rival start-up wanted to achieve HVIVO models and results they would be better off buying HVIVO"

And yet, last year when the mcap was less than £100m, which is peanuts to big Pharmas, instead of buying out HVO, clients preferred to spend a few million to setup the new facility. Very charitable of the pharmas, isn't it? Do you really think Pharmas thought they must spend millions to setup new facilities for a 3rd party, HVO benefit, rather than think if it benefits themselves? Really?

"HVIVO also have the relationships with big pharma already"

Apart from the couple of clients who largely paid for the new facility, why would pharmas use HVO if alternatives were available? How many Chinese/Indian pharmas use HVO?

From my previous posts:

"If there's huge demand what's stopping other pharmas from setting up a rival business? A few million to setup a rival facility is peanuts to large pharmas.

HVO's clients largely paid for the new facility, despite the company claiming £37m cash. Why didn't HVO use their own cash? What's in it for those clients who paid to setup the new facility?

What's stopping pharmas taking over HVO and setting up a rival business and cutting out competition?"

Might explain why the Chairman dumped majority of his holding in a discounted secondary placing at 28p.

The CEO has huge >7m options, awarded only last year, backdated a year and will exercisable from few months time, Feb 2025. He has the incentive to talk up the company.

Lack of revenue growth rate.

Mick-b

"My only reservation is that big profit margins always attracts competition, sooner or later, if there isn’t a strong enough moat of IP. I’m not convinced the moat here is strong enough to prevent that happening eventually. After all, HVO built this business quite quickly in recent years, so why couldn’t someone else do the same"

Exactly what I've been saying.

;-)

Hallsworthy,

"I'll up my posting on TLY now as you've asked so nicely"

It's up to you where you post, isn't it?

TLY already have over £100m revenues, IIs adding, Chairman buying, Mcap only £18m.

Unlike HVO, TLY shares have more than doubled this year, in fact last 3 months on the govn plans to reduce waiting lists!!

My post highlights my opinions, the red flags, with links to the company newsflow.

I think there business model is questionable.

Readers can form their own opinion.

Clearly some posters don't want the company newsflow posted. Some of these were buying when the sp was over 40p. It might explain why they are desperate to hide the facts and rely on potential/jam tomorrow.

Rivaldo,

"Interestingly, they also feel HVO could reach its revenue target "largely organically"

Another way of saying organic growth is slowing, isn't it?

It confirms my assertion that revenue growth rate is slowing.

Unless they announce contracts, acquisitions falling revenues can become a real possibility.

Geordie,

You're misquoting my posts.

" Then he says no revenue growth, yet revenue is up 30% on same period last year. "

Where do I say NO revenue growth or you making it up, again?

I said LACK of revenue growth RATE. Revenue growth rate is slowing, as can be seen from company newsflow.

They now say est fy2025 is £67.4m, so that's 8.7% compared to 10.7% last year.

The lack of revenue growth rate, contracts and lower contracted order book makes a REVENUE DROP A POSSIBILITY.

The H1 revenue growth rate (30%) was also significantly lower than last year (52%).

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/hvivo/news/rns/story/rno86jw

Might explain why the Chairman dumped majority of his holding in a discounted secondary placing at 28p. I believe the chairman knows more about the company than IIs or BB posters.

Given the huge >7m options, I think the CEO has the incentive to talk up the company over the next few months.

These are their own figures, readers can verify from reading the company updates:

H1 2022

Order: £70m

fy 2022

rev: £50.7m

Order book: £76m

H1 2023

Revenue: £27.3m (+52%)

Order: £78m

fy 2023

rev: £56m

Order: £80m

fy 2024

Expected Rev £62m

H1 2024

Revenue: £35.6m (+30.6%)

Order book: £71m

fy 2025 est

67.4m (+8.7%)

Revenue Growth rate has continued to slow year on year.