Member Info for Strike123

Those are fantastic results for me with low debt and over £1bn in dividend for FY2025 which had gold avg $3500.

For 2026, gold will avg much higher and the numbers will get bigger and bigger!

I have added at 4749 and will add more if it drops!

There is a big instituational fund that got in at this level - $45 - $50 as per the RNS last week.

This can multi bag easily this year with gold at $5000.

As always I await for others to comment for any negatives that they see....

Just did AI prompt for FRES fair price with Silver and Gold avg $70 and $5000 for 2026. Note fair value is different from higher highs we see when there is momentum!

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Based on the preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2025 (reported March 2026) and the 2026 outlook, the fair value of Fresnillo (FRES) shares is complex due to record-high metal prices clashing with declining production volumes.

Given your assumptions of silver at $70/oz and gold at $5,000/oz—which are significantly higher than the average prices realized in 2025 ($43.6/oz silver, $3,532/oz gold)—the company would likely generate substantial free cash flow, suggesting a significantly higher fair value than traditional models might suggest. However, the market is tempering this with lowered 2026 production guidance (42-46.5 Moz silver) and high CapEx.

Based on 2025 results & 2026 Guidance (with stated price assumptions):

2025 Performance: 2025 FY saw Adjusted Revenue of $4.6 billion (+27.6%) and Adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion (+80.7%), with basic EPS of $2.058.

2026 Production Outlook: Attributable silver: 42.0–46.5 Moz; Gold: 500–550 Koz.

Key Driver: The 2026 valuation will be driven by operating leverage, as 2025 results showed that rising prices offset a 13.5% drop in silver production.

Fair Value Indication: While some analyst models in early 2026, based on lower price assumptions, suggested a fair value around £35.00, the sustained high-price environment ($70 silver/$5000 gold) would likely move this valuation towards the £45.00 - £50.00+ range, assuming the company maintains its high dividend payouts and converts its $1.9 billion cash balance into further accretive growth

So it is £45 - £50+ range if Silver avg $70 and Au $5000 for 2026

CRIMEX gang had all the opportunity to knock silver down to $70 this week due to the war but Silver is still rising and is now $85! So I believe atleast in the short term we will breach £40 once the market sense a relief from the Iran war. It could breach much earlier and within this week as Silver is hovering at $85.

JMAX, you were asking same questions when we said this will go to over 40s while it was in 30s remember?

You then came out saying you sold at the top £43! :-)

Now you know why this will go again to £43 and higher because you sold out! :-)

Over the pond US miners are up nearly 4% pre-market.

FRES has lot of catching up to do!

It went NT on opening managed to add at 3812 GLA

Trump is now realizing that the regime change that he wanted is not going to make any difference as the Iranians are not going to stay quiet. Infact no country would when they get attacked. There could be another Oct 7th attack in future. Spain, Canada and us do not want to get involved in the war. It could be because we do not want inflation to go up as it did when Ukraine war started. So in the short term oil is going to go up. Gold will go through roof hitting new highs IMO as it is safe heaven metal. We need to see if Silver would follow Gold. If inflation goes up then no rates cuts and that could impact the demand for silver. If the silver holds above $80 or $70 by end of this 4 weeks of war that Trump intended then FRES could hit £50 or at least stay in 40s IMO.

Today could be a downer but hopefully not in big percentages! GLA

JMAX/Democrat, why will the Q1 results be poor when PM prices avg all time high for FRES? Btw, today’s results are not poor either. At least JPM does not think so with their price target of $55!

They cannot employ whole nation to improve production. Just because they revised down the production doesn't mean that is what they could deliver does it? For 2025, they exceeded their guidance for Gold Production. Guidance was under 580koz where as they produced 600kz.

It is better to under promise and over deliver than viceversa?

FRES are doing this business since 100yrs so they know how to make the maximum out of the PMs.

Agree that it would be good if they could produce lot more but probably costs outweigh the returns.

For 2026, they may still exceed their production, you never know!

FRES will bounce for sure once the market turns blue. Trump statement about whatever it takes and going longer with the war is what panicked the Markets today. Market cannot keep going down. War news could become a normal news for market just like Russian war. The good news is that Iran is alone in this war so most likely US and Israel will demolish Iran like GAZA making sure they dont invoke the nukes. Thinking about nukes, now am actually bit worried what if Iran manages to launch the nukes! Probably if US can confirm that the nukes are not in Iran hands that should calm the markets and the bounce begins! Will need to do another top up at 3800p, I think missed it!

JMAX you will be surprised that when the market bounces FRES will do 7% rise easily and that will be due to the results. FRES will come back roaring.

JPM price target of £55 is based on the results! why do you think they upped their price otherwise?

JMAX if it was not the Iran war then your SP priced in view would have been totally proven wrong.

The whole market is down including oils. Hopefully tomorrow is a up day.

JPM have upped their target from £45 to £55! That is a massive re-rate!

Citi had FRES at £45 too and they would increase their price targets too!

I think £45 - £50 is a reasonable price for FRES and that should increase to £55 - £70 as the 2026 Silver and Gold avg price is double the 2025 avg prices.

Currently market is ignoring the results and ignoring the potential of high average prices for Silver and Gold in 2026.

May be market is thinking that recession is on the way due to the Iran war, which could impact the EV demand, AI and Solar.

But Trump mentioned that the war is NOT endless and it is going to finish in 4 weeks so the war is impact short term.

Ticking up now 4076 to buy

Craig don’t worry mate just give it time. It will go up!

I have added at exactly 4000p price!

I think it is a gift to get this price IMO

Gone NT to buy!

Yes I saw the holdings RNS. It is a massive stake!

They must have bought in at £46 - £50 region! They must be expecting massive rerate!

Any weakness today is a big top up for me!

They have a net cash of nearly $2bn and I think they are paying record high dividend of $790m+ from the net cash?

Their net profit increased by massive 600%

All this for just $40 avg silver for 2025!!!!

Now for 2026 just imagine all those numbers if the avg is $70 or $80!!!

Though silver price is down to $84 this morning, market should see the numbers with $80 avg for silver this year!

7 - 10% rise surely!

What is the relative AISC for each miner?

SILVER :

PAAS - $15.75 - $18.25 /oz

FRES - $17/oz based on 2025 half year report

Profit surged by 297% to $467M as per half year and now for full year just imagine how big percentage the profit increase would e for full year! Ofcourse it all depends on outlook and if they can maintain same margins and with reduced output for silver for 2026 but it also reduces the costs and I think that is what makes the difference in terms of cash flow for FRES! Just do the buybacks and I think that should stop these shenanigans!

What is the resource base of each miner?

SILVER :

PAAS - 25.0 - 27.0 Moz

FRES - 42.0 - 46.5 Moz

GOLD :

PAAS - 700 - 750 koz

FRES - 500 - 550 koz without considering Probe

I posted several times the revenue, net income, free cash flow for FY26 usinh AI and the numbers are incredible.

The simple fact is we produce double the PAAS miner but there is not much difference in mcao between both! How can it be?

How can market just not consider it?

I think some large institutional funds are day trading FRES with millions. We are seeing 3-7% swings!

We can only just watch and play accordingly. Bloody ridiculous how they are manipulating this.

It could be a big red tomorrow despite hell lot of cash and revenue!

Basically they want our shares panicking us retail investors. I will bloody add tomorrow if the SP goes down.

Same happened with HOC. Muted reaction with their last time update and next day onwards it went up!

I want FRES to do buybacks so that the number of free float shares are reduced and these antics stop!