Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
JWBellamy,
You are trying to hard talking this down.
I can't see this going down any low.
Price will start to move as we get closer to ex-dividend date. Interest rates will come down. Any lower then am a buyer.
"CPI and core hot again. PMs, you know what to do..."
If inflation is high then interest rates stay high so demand for PMs will stay low? or is it other way?
With gold, it goes up when inflation is high as that is considered safer haven than equities so gold goes up with inflation but not other metals?
I remember from an another share chat board that buyback will not kick in unless there is a drop of 5%. It looks like buyback programme runs until next year so there is ample time. Personally I would like dividends than buyback as a dividend announcement would attract more investors but also agree that cancelling the outstanding shares is a good outcome from the buyback.
Prospects are improving so can't see a drop or a new short opening. Infact a short position almost closed last week. Today's US CPI number determines the direction of SP for FTSE and US indices. If CPI number is good then ITV too will rally to new high this week otherwise buyback will kick in to support the price hopefully. GLA
Exited final position around 70 - GLA - keep the faith.
You could have held on to your shares bought under 60! This is clearly going to 80p atleast with media now calling ITV at bargain basement price and talk of takeover!
Great day for ITV shareholders!
If this rise is stamp of approval for the business direction towards streaming and content generation then SP should go back to £1.20 as it fell from there after the announcement of ITVX streaming launch. It fell at that time as days before that Netflix had lost some good number of subscribers and Netflix lost billions in valuation and that impacted ITV too after announcing ITVX.
Now in today's results ITV confirmed that they are on target for £750m of digital advertising!
This should race back to atleast 90p if not £1.20 IMO
68p close indicates it is going back to 70s in the short term. Dividend in April. I'm loaded up!
GLA
Bloody hell I should have stuck to my instincts. Seeing it rise above 500 and down a little in the morning to 497 so thought it is a buying opportunity considering gold price going up.
Numbers didn't look good for last year but I believe this year and next should be good provided China starts to investing more to boost their economy and not to forget India is growing super fast and will be for next 5yrs as per the forecasts so let's hope metal prices go up!
I will take dividend and will now have to avg down but no worries just bot annoyed to get my entry wrong and money is stuck. Will wait until this volatility settles down this week. I think 476 should be bottom considering dividend to come.
The article says mcap is down by 40% from the precovid level so too get back to the 2019 level(14bn)it has to go up by nearly 80%? So there is an opportunity here for SP to go higher by 80%. Just need patience for a year? Atleast 20% higher bare minimum in the short term but this can happen if the next 2 quarter results maintain similar fcf until then trade this share. So if it goes to 140-143 then jump in...
NuckyT, I remember the dreadful situation you, me and many others were when the price went down to 65p. I had £30k invested with avg at 127p and couldn't add more when it was down and sold most of it once it was back to 127p as this money was my redundancy payment! Now look where it is now!!! I was right in thinking that Rolls was in bargain when it was at 127p but couldn't believe when it was "taken" down to 65p. My wife says am the kiss of the death! I knew that the minute I sell, shares will fly and that exactly what happened "again". Bloody lost out the big opportunity but atleast I did not sell in loss at 65p! I now have just £5k worth at £2 avg. But clearly it was the shorts that took it down despite knowing that EFH will recover and that was the reason I didn't sell for loss. I can't see shorts jumping now considering cash flow to double.
Rolls price is only back to pre-pandemic level. There are many shares that are 20-50% higher than their pre-pandemic price so Rolls, EZJ and IAG are still in recovery with latter ones due for a big recovery. RR is sure to enter narrow body aircraft market soon and that will be a big boost to the further upside to the share price. Add to it SMR then £5 atleast is achievable IMO. GLA
$7bn for improvements is a massive money although they said it is invested over the period of 3yrs. I guess this is what is holding back the share price otherwise easily this would be £2+. They brought down debt by 2bn last year so probably the 7bn investment over 3yrs is not a problem and also they can put this on hold when needed. If they can come up with good numbers next week then SP back to £1.60
Is the Silchester stake a new stake? Is it not just the case that they went over 5% and it becomes public? So they possibly only bought a few million raising their overall stake to 120million?
Yes, it is possible that they crossed the threshold recently but either way they wouldn't have increased/bought the shares if the ITV situation is so bad? Even if this gets to 70p, they would be in 20% profit with their 120M stake! and that is a cool 2.4M profit!
I think results will not beat the expectations with advertising revenue down YoY but this is priced into the share price and that is why it is under 60 now. If they can provide positive outlook for 2024 considering the inflation forecasted to go down then that can help steady the price. I think dividend would be maintained and if positive outlook for 2024 is provided then I think current share price would be considered bargain and will start to move up after the results.
Probably the postoffice saga could have helped bring in some ad revenue. Also the recent update on the streaming numbers for ITVX in January, which seem to be highest recorded ever will also help on the results day.
Considering the new stake bought by a major fund recently, the results may not be too bad otherwise this major fund would have waited until the results before buying in? It is also interesting that they bought it this close to the results. I cna't see their £120M becoming half. Certainly they would be speaking to Dame just like how guys here have emailed ITV.
GLA
As per Nov update, digital ad revenue is up -
? Digital advertising revenue (a component of digital revenue) remained strong, up 25% at £283 million to the end of September (2022: £227 million)
Dame said Digital revenue will be £750M in 2026 but at that time market did not believe and SP nose dived from £1.20 to 90p.
Despite inflation, digital ad revenue was up at £283M in Sep'23. If the digital revenue gets close to £500M atleast then SP could bounce back to £1 ?
Today's drop is clearly due to a small possible chance that deal could be called off if the German govt blocks it but clearly HBR and BASF must have done their due diligence during the takeover talks.
Reuters article has this -
According to a government source, a review is not yet underway and the deal is not seen as being problematic.