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“What’s been a challenge for us to manage is really the combination of scale of Russian sanctions well beyond anything we have seen in comparable sanctions regime to date and the pace of work,” Giles Thomson, director of OFSI, said during a webinar held last week by law firms Peters & Peters and Brick Court Chambers.

Asked how long it takes for OFSI to issue a license, Thomson said any answer would become “a hostage of fortune because each case is different.”

“What’s been a challenge for us to manage is really the combination of scale of Russian sanctions well beyond anything we have seen in comparable sanctions regime to date and the pace of work,” Giles Thomson, director of OFSI, said during a webinar held last week by law firms Peters & Peters and Brick Court Chambers.

Asked how long it takes for OFSI to issue a license, Thomson said any answer would become “a hostage of fortune because each case is different.”

Liz Truss, the UK’s new Prime Minister, repeatedly stressed the need for tough penalties in her previous role as foreign secretary, vowing to deliver “surgically targeted sanctions that will hit Russia hard” on the eve of the invasion.

Yet lawmakers have subsequently criticized the country’s sanctions regime as “under-prepared and under-resourced” in a report released at the end of June by the House of Commons influential Foreign Affairs Committee.

OFSI’s current headcount of 70 lags behind its target of 100 employees, according to a statement by Thomson, the agency’s director, to the Treasury Select Committee. In its statement to Bloomberg News, the HM Treasury spokesperson added, “OFSI is on track to at least double in size to 100 staff over the next financial year.”

Prior to the invasion, the UK sanctions body was already under fire for having issued just six fines since its inception in 2016 -- worth a combined £21 million ($24.7 million). It has issued only one fine since the war started, although it had nothing to do with Russia.

This number stands in contrast with its longer-established US counterpart, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) which issued a total of $1.53 billion in fines between 2017 and 2022.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-13/investors-fume-at-uk-treasury-s-license-delays-for-russian-firms?srnd=premium-uk

Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, these firms have required special licenses from the UK’s Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation (OFSI) -- a part of the UK Treasury -- in order to pay their non-Russian stakeholders. But as requests swamp the sanctions body, many Russian firms have yet to receive their licenses, which are required -- among other things -- to pay back bondholders.

And so around $28.9 billion of Russian-issued, foreign-denominated corporate bond debt has fallen into technical default due to non-payment, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News, in large part due to OFSI’s delays. Investors in the metals company Evraz Plc, Russian Railways JSC and Alfa Bank AO are among those affected by delays at OFSI.

“Our main concern is that we don’t know what’s going on,” said Philipp Bauss, who is part of a lobbying network of around 500 retail investors in Evraz, the majority of whom are UK residents. “There hasn’t been a way forward, any communication. If OFSI could tell us, we would appreciate to know what’s going on.”

In response to questions from Bloomberg News, an OFSI spokesperson declined to comment on the specific number of applications received and licenses issued until the publication of its Annual Review.

The spokesperson added that the UK government has implemented an unprecedented suite of sanctions targeting Russia and that OFSI would “continue to reprioritise resources to ensure we are well equipped to implement such sanctions,” the statement added.

How come 553.75p price is printed!!! ???
Does it mean there is too much demand for the shares and price goes up for such a huge trade?
It looks like a purchase than a sale ?

Not everyone sees it quite like this. In the medium term, things may shift back to the old normal a little. The new UK government is suddenly mad for fracking and Liz Truss appears to have something of a “drill baby drill” mindset (no bad thing at the moment). But for now at least you may have an opportunity to buy into oil stocks at very attractive prices — something that makes perfect historical sense.

This won’t be the first time a commodity bull market has offered second chances to those who have been a little slow on the uptake. Look back, say the analysts at Schroders, and you will see that corrections of 15-20 per cent in commodity markets are “completely normal during bull cycles”. There were seven of these in the 1970s and during the commodity bull market of 2001 to 2008 there were five that took prices down more than 10 per cent.

I can’t quite bring myself to suggest you buy stocks that are up 1,000 per cent or more but if you want to buy in there are plenty of good ETFs in the sector. One to look at is the iShares Oil & Gas Exploration and Production UCITS ETF (SPOG). It’s up 50 per cent year to date but off a little over the past few days.

I can’t promise you that the profits will get you an underground ballroom or a house with 1,000 windows. But they might help you make a start.

I guess we should add on any weakness in the price from now on. Chances of breaching 500p are increasing! GLA

Look at the dynamics of the oil market. The key point to remember, says Robert Mullin at Marathon Resource Advisors, is that for the past 40 or so years, oil prices have had a pretty firm ceiling and no obvious floor. When oil prices rose they were met with a combination of new supply from Opec, which never wants the oil price so high that the west invests too much for itself, plus a little from the west and demand destruction (the cure for high prices was high prices).

That’s just not the case any more. The Opec countries no longer have excess capacity to throw into the mix. At the same time the “increasingly high share of global energy company capex” diverted to green and carbon capture initiatives in the west, alongside the endless investment disincentives created by the talk of price caps, windfall taxes, export bans and an inconsistent regulatory environment means they have a much firmer floor and a vastly diminished ceiling.

Opec no longer needs to create low prices to dissuade the west from overinvesting — we have banned ourselves from doing it with “fossil fuel shaming”. It can now allow prices to stay high with no risk to its long-term revenues. At the same time our collapsed levels of investment have removed any price ceiling.

In the old days if you looked at a chart of oil prices and capex spend you would see them pretty much tracking each other. Oil prices up, capex and future supply up. Look at that same chart today and they don’t. Even as the oil price has risen sharply since late 2020, capex has fallen.

The cure for high prices is, for now at least, no longer high prices. The story of 2023 will then be one of dual realization, says Mullin. We will see that we cannot cancel fossil fuels on the timeline our politicians have promised and that “the potential outcomes for crude oil prices have moved up from their historically downward bias to asymmetrically skewed to the upside”. The structural bull case for fossil fuels, driven by climate change policy, remains entirely intact.

Phillip came to me today,
and said it was time to go.
I looked at him and smiled,
as i whispered that "I know"

I then turned and looked behind me,
and seen I was asleep.
All my Family were around me,
and I could hear them weep.

I gently touched each shoulder,
with Phillip by my side.
Then I turned away and walked,
with My Angel guide.

Phillip held my hand,
as he lead the way,
to a world where King's and Queens,
are Monarch's every day.

I was given a crown to wear
or a Halo known by some.
The difference is up here,
they are worn by everyone.

I felt a sense of peace,
my reign had seen its end.
70 years I had served my Country,
as the peoples friend.

Thank you for the years,
for all your time and love.
Now I am one of two again,
in our Palace up above. ????

From Facebook, just sharing it to make feel better.
RIP Your Majesty

Phillip came to me today,
and said it was time to go.
I looked at him and smiled,
as i whispered that "I know"

I then turned and looked behind me,
and seen I was asleep.
All my Family were around me,
and I could hear them weep.

I gently touched each shoulder,
with Phillip by my side.
Then I turned away and walked,
with My Angel guide.

Phillip held my hand,
as he lead the way,
to a world where King's and Queens,
are Monarch's every day.

I was given a crown to wear
or a Halo known by some.
The difference is up here,
they are worn by everyone.

I felt a sense of peace,
my reign had seen its end.
70 years I had served my Country,
as the peoples friend.

Thank you for the years,
for all your time and love.
Now I am one of two again,
in our Palace up above. ????

From Facebook

Rest In Peace Your Majesty, it was an honour to serve you!

Yes, very sad about the Queen passing away. Truly a Great Lady!

Shaun nice post on the charts!

Nice post BH!
I believe we will make nice profits here with ITV too like with HBR! I bought ITV in pandemic at 74p and did not sell in the highs of last year as I was thinking fair value is £1.70 considering the revenues being much higher than 2019 levels and with dividends back. In 2019, ITV was £1.60 and higher. Considering the current market, we should be atleast £1. It will come. GL

Yes, very sad about the news :-(
I was watching Sky News since 4pm in the hope that they would give good news but was keep wondering why they were covering only about the Queen. The message in the afternoon was Queen is under supervision and she is comfortable so was hoping a good news. Sadly turned out to be a bad news. My heart was broken hearing the news. I'm still looking at the pictures of the Queen. I'm too emotional. But really what a great lady is our Queen! At the age of 96, she still was able to attend the events and walk around on her own without help! She survived the Covid too but I think Sir Philip's death last year must have shaken her. She had other family problems too. At last, she is relieved of all the troubles. She will always be in my heart forever. Sorry had to write this to make myself feel better.

Morgan Stanley throwing finger in the air number.
Why just 55p ? Why not 5p ?
Bloody scumbags

CINE could have done 30% today in UK too but sentiment was killed by some since yday evening with the "balanced" posts.
CINE did 40% rise when there was a risk of suspension and now that risk is gone so we could have done 40% today.

May need this to go down a little lower for it to spring back up.

With travel and leisure sector not doing good, CINE down.

Tomorrow is another day. GLA

Tom, I will add if it goes lower. I took a chance today and expected it to go up after Liz announcement on energy as that will contain inflation. Once the news spreads about inflation being contained, all beaten down stocks like ITV will bounce.
You can time the market and wait for 55p but it may never go down that much.

I think CINE will be another success story at the end of this C11 process.
Lenders could have easily put CINE into Administration and immediately could have done the fire sale but they didn't.
What C11 did is that it helps with the Cineplex case where appeal judge would now start to look at broader side of things and may not grant full award.

If this happens then it changes whole situation for CINE as it will be a game changer.
The outcome of the judgement may not come until new year and that could be the reason why they are seeking protection with C11 outcome next year.

If CP outcome is positive for CINE, which most likely could be positive for CINE due to C11 so I think shares could be worth multiples more than what they are now.

Until then it is the case of accumulation. Also there could be increased trading as Sep 22nd results approach.

let's see who will be the idiot Tom.
Shorts have closed the position for a reason. If you think this is going lower then why shorts have closed?
I guess you will buy at the top and sell it for measly 1-2% profit and takes joy?

I have topped up at 62.5 this morning
With dividend date approaching, world cup and Liz Truss plan for controlling the inflation, I think we shall see 75p again very soon! GLA

I think it will go only one way that is up as this is now a meme stock like AMC, proof is the last few trading sessions.

It went up to 6p when there was as risk of suspension but now shares remain trading until Q1 2023 so 6p will be breached easily I think

One thing for sure is that Cineplex is not going to get anything for their claim even if the judge rules in CP favour as they will be last in the line and they won't be getting anything. As C11 is filed so CP may withdraws it's claim to save their own legal expenses as they will only have crumbs left to pick. Even if they foolishly pursue, judge will not be foolish to award billion dollar damages considering C11 or may award few hundred million, which anyways they will not get until all other creditors are paid.

So with CP claim ditched business suddenly should look promising to the creditors in 3 months time. Now creditors may ask Regal assets to be floated on US listing and UK shareholders could be awarded some percentage of the shares in US listing albeit it may not be significant number. If the US listing is valued at say $3bn considering the rivals like AMC, Cinemark then creditors get their money back with US listing. The higher the valuation the higher number of shares UK shareholders could get.

To me the only reason they said UK shares not suspended with C11 is due to the above situation. UK Shares will trade until outcome is concluded in 2023. So I "guess" if one has say 10k shares then you may end up having only 1000 shares with US listing or may be less we don't know. We don't get this confirmation until next year.

Until then UK shares can be traded freely. With no short attack now, it is upto the traders. Seeing the price action last few days, I guess there will be a jump in price tomorrow.

PT, we both should have sold today morning when it hit 473-475p briefly but I thought that tomorrow Liz announcing her energy plans would help push price higher as today she said outright that no more taxes on energy sector. All of a sudden oil tanked by 4% after US opened.

If oil can regain to $90 by the morning tomorrow, we should be OK I guess.
Too volatile at the moment.