Member Info for Strictlyslick

It may be a couple of days since I wrote this, but I have written an article about HSBC on my investment blog. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/03/rdsb-target-price-24-80/ I of course welcome comments about the research, tips and criticism

I have posted analysis of HSBC on a new shares analysis blog that I have recently started. Hope you guys will have little gander and provide feedback on here. As I'm bullish Sufcessex should love it lol https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/05/hsbc-target-price-6-50/

what a blindingly good recover this week - I posted yesterday saying I thought it would recover to £2 within a year - i may be eating those words soon!

You're unlikely to see an offer taken seriously by management - a significant portion of the shares are held outside of public hands (37%). when there was a takeover approach before the company gathered in excess of 52% to vote against before the EGM, and I'm sure thy could do so again. Noting that the company has traded in execs of 300p in the past year, i doubt the directors et al would see an offer of around £2.30 as a favorable bid. It would be more reasonable for a prospective buyer to purchase as many shares as possible at these subdued levels, then come in with an offer of 300p for the remainder of the shares. But would that happen...probably not as it would value the company at over £150m on the back of 1.9m projected profits for 2016. I was one of the ones who bought on Monday. I see it as a win win situation - if it drops further I reap the dividend of 6.1% - assuming a 6p final dividend - until a recovery, or I ride up on a rebound. Hell if the divi is less than 6p and the share tanks I have held back some cash to top up at lower levels.

I didn't even know about this company until I saw it on the losers board. Having gone through a shed load of the previous RNS's though it looks very interesting. Key issues goign forward are:- a. the battery in certain smoke alarms - cash set aside to deal with this. b. overstocking in France - will be dealt with through the selling of stock over time. b. sales falling below par in Germany. I think its b and c that have caused today's drop, despite the company reaffirming that a dividend will be paid. If the dividend remains healthy there may be a sustained recovery as investors use it as an income and recovery play. The company certainly looks to be a better investment that many AIM companies with it being in profit and paying out divis - indeed the growth over the past few years has been quite incredible. Arguably though the company was overvalued until now (guidance of profit circa £12m meant the company was valued at in excess of 10X its profit). anyone else have thoughts or analysis?

Just looking at the cost of a snoozebox room for Glastonbury - £1,199 for 4 nights, or £1,995.00 for 5 nights. This is based on two people sharing a room. Surely this price is excessive - if for 4 people it would be acceptable, but this works out at £200 per night - the same as a 4 star hotel would cost....

Its all well and good having the mining Lease restored, but it is pretty much irrelevant unless the company takes steps to getting the stuff out the ground. The JV agreement was put in place in October 2013. This included "Mine and power plant development will commence in the second half of 2014.". The MOU for the development of a power plant was put in place in November 2013, and all looked good for progress. No Objection Certificate" was been issued by the Environmental Protection Agency Government of Sindh in Jan 2014 in readiness - then no more progress has occurred to date. So in that months period that followed, up until the Lease was suspended, the company made no steps forward that was newsworthy. But wait, we've had two equity placings since then, and we've signed another agreement concerning the EPC....which as not been implemented in any fashion as yet - that being 5 months ago ...So the company is burning cash and moving no further forward. Todays announcement puts us one step forward after a step back in December. Can't say I have much faith in this company's ability to deliver (hence why I sold out a loooong time ago). Will keep watching to see if they can change my mind and get me to move back in.

"Off topic post here - I've just been looking at NOP, which has been crashing since the oil price environment changed. They are now valued below cash balance held, but they have been eating money for the past year ($36m Dec 2013, $22m at June 14, and $12m now, but with significant cost cutting now carried out and less capital expenditure now they are in production). It will be interesting see how they survive in the current oil price environment, and as oil rebounds a little it will be interesting to see how their share price reacts." So, in terms of ongoing survivability, how much has the company cut costs/ they were losing over $10m every six months - was that due to drilling projects that are now fully paid up, or is that cash burn rate expected to continue. If so I cant see production covering the costs (which if 500 barrels per day would give circa $760k per month at $49 a barrel). So, can anyone shed light on the companies long term plan...

The answer is possibly.....just not for the current holders. If they can raise equity they an keep going to hopefully realise orders - but the dilution will completely destroy the investment of anyone still here. Yes we still have the Heliocentris Contract, but without a significant order arriving in the next month or so the cash will be completely gone. They have....(or should I say had?) great tech but simply couldn't transform it into orders. Holding out on negotiations that clearly were going no-where was simply foolish. I shall continue to watch to see if they can make a last minute comeback, but odds are against it 99:1 in my opinion.

What a dilution that's going to turn out to be....still no further news on product sales and they propose this - c'mon ACTA - I wouldn't be surprised if this sends the price through the floor

Short answer...yes it was.

It's taken them months to come clean, that there has been sweet F All progress, but at least it's on paper now. The repeat statement that they have confidence in the tech is a ludicrous one - if they are confident, why haven't they got their product out there despite a year of negotiations. A year! Was looking to get back in when they proved themselves, now I'm just looking to see how long they can last for given the cash burn rate. But thank god they've decided at long last to look at cost saving measures....lol

And we got out head honcho bailing ship. Screams out panic to me. Open will be massively down, but where will in finish. No contracts still after so long, and now no leader....

...into a new month and yet still no Contract, no news. trades trickling few at only a couple of hundred at a time...No Autumn order from Mfield? No further ACTA power sales? and no cash saving measures implemented. C'mon ACTA, pull your finger out!

So when they say its been taken into account in the accounts what exactly does that mean - it certainly cant mean they had ring fence a million euros against this? I assume it means they have recorded it as a loss previously? If so that doesn't instil confidence as that a balancing exercise of the figures without affecting current cashflow in a positive manner. bit confused though First this comment: However the rejection of this appeal means the Company is now either required to pay the ruled amount, negotiate a settlement or could be subject to enforced actions. Then this:- The Board strongly refutes the claim and has appealed to the High Court, a process which is expected to take a number of years. So is the company going to have to pay now or is there a further appeal - or was the background info out of date and copied and pasted from a previous RNS. Regardless though, its another blow and another leg down on the sp. My sell out at 2.8p is looking wiser by the day, and the odds of a comeback shrinking. Having said that, ACTA has bounced back before and can still do so. Still need that big RNS with an order, and some clarity on past contracts.

Fine I'll let you have that - a misread in my ranting. So I change the statement Has the Dantherns system incorporating the ACTA EL1000 has been deployed in the Arctic yet. Would have thought they'd put out an RNS on that (seeing as reporting that the ACTA Power worked during a black out was deemed worthy)...or is this another dead end that not to be mentioned again. My point remains - scheduled for shipment in September means its been with them for upto 6 weeks - time to get it up to the near the arctic circle surely - as I'd have certainly expected an early September shipment seeing as the production facilities have been increased for a much higher output. Its a case of no news once again. I appreicate your comment on the Dantherm deal, and yes it could lead to great things. But then again, we all got excited about the photovoltics (good idea at the time, just a shame about the Italian government there), the engine applications, the gas wielding system, the £3m contract, the contract with Heliocentris worth upto 1.5m in year 4, ACTA Power etc etc, but there is nothing in the history of the company that suggests that this agreement with Dantherm is going to amount to anything. I would have thought the agreement in which we were in negotiations for bulk orders up to 100,000 a year would have been the best deal in the last 4 years....but wait, after the first mention that too did not amount to anything. We were not even informed who we were in negotiatons with - the subject of speculation for a few months on this BB. Quite frankly, an order of more than 3 ACTA Powers will now be the best order in news 4 years lol. Each agreement sounds great when first announced, but doesn't get anywhere. Even I remained optimistic until the accounts showed that revenue hadn't grown anywhere near what I had expected - particularly if each ACTA Power sells for upto 75k, and 3 sales (I think, haven't run back through and checked) were recorded in the half year....shows that we had very little of anything else going on. Either the company needs to cut back to pre-ramp up levels until it can secure contracts, or there going to be a further massive dilution coming our way as the last bout of cash runs dry in a couple of months as they pay 50 or so staff to sit around not building anything, and to provide customer support to....you guessed it...no customers. If they can prove they can sell, I'm back in, but now I just wait with more and more disappointment.

Did the ACTA Power get deployed in the Arctic. Would have thought they'd put out an RNS on that (seeing as reporting that the ACTA Power worked during a black out was deemed worthy)...or is this another dead end that not to be mentioned again... So we're still waiting on news for:- a. conclusion of the negotiations....ongoing for months on end with no end in sight. b. Information on the conclusion of "Trial for domestic wind turbine energy storage in the UK" (announced July 2013) c. Gas Wielding System d. Update on the MVS distribution agreement MVS Energy Solutions - they seem to let us know when Mfield make significant orders, so why not with MVS Energy? Has this amounted to anything? e. Future E supply agreement (Nov 2012). This was stated to have a £3m value over 5 years.We are now at the end of the 2nd year....and seeing as our revenue is only circa 600k per annum now, I have a hard time believing that this has materialised f. Oxygen-Hydrogen Gas Welding System - is this selling or again dead in the water. On reflection, the majority of 'news' released by ACTA doesn't seem to amount to anything, and a lack of transparency in updating shareholders on the news is very misleading. With the above, I am starting to doubt that the Strategic Commercial Partnership with Heliocentris (Feb 2012) (which purports to include an order of at least 500 units in year 3 of the agreement (i.e. starting in 4 months) with a value of £1.5m in year 4) actually has any merit either. Based on the company's history of losing/cancelling agreements and not informing shareholders, I have now no reason to believe that this Contract is still in place. Ergo this share is a strong sell until it can prove that contracts can materialise.

and still no contracts. No orders of the Acta Power since the 15th July...about 1.1m-1.3m euros left in the bank by my reckoning based on the last set of results. Enough to last until February. I'm now seeing this as a dead company for an invvestor. It had a good try, but a complete inability to generate sales after increasing costs dramatically is proving the death of it. They should have reeled costs back in at the point they realised that the 'sales cycle is longer than anticipated'. As its stands even if they get off the ground there will have been so much dilution by then that current investors won't see the benefit. We've already seen a dilution of 5X over the past two year, and the next out of £2m will pump 80m more into circulation at current prices, diluting by over a 1/3rd again. Such a pity, I had very high hopes for ACTA...

The fundraising in October 2013 - "The net proceeds of the Placing will be utilised alongside grant funding due to be received during 2014 to finance the continued growth of the Company's commercial activities with existing customers and new commercial partners around the world. Based on existing financial resources, expected grant receipts and the proceeds of the Placing, the Board believes that the Company has sufficient capital available to finance the working capital requirements of the Company's current business plan as it expands its commercial and production activities over the next year." This does not mention AT ALL that increases in sales are required - it says the funding is to fund the growth for existing customers and new customers. January 2014 - Larger "network evaluations" of the Acta Power system are currently under negotiation. Initial network installations are expected to be typically of 50 to 150 units per customer network with up to 50 units in the first call-down.' These negotiations started in January - we are now 9 months on without a single significant contract. The demand for Base stations, even if they have a 15 year life, would be constant. So we have a product that works, has significant cost benefits, now has CE certification, has been evaluated and proven to meet or exceed expectations. So with all those positives, how can the Company not secure a Contract. To me this says that the RNS stating negotiations were underway was our sales team making a phone call to a telecom and saying 'would you like to discuss our new product' and the telecom saying 'yes we'll discuss it at some point in the future'. Sales team then pops open the bubbly and screams 'yeah, we're in negotiations'... The company has a good product, but they clearly cant sell it. So I'm out until they prove otherwise.

and I'm sure I could buy back in for half the price in a few weeks...but definatley wont do until they put out an RNS saying only one thing 'Contract for 200+ ACTA Powers in place'