Member Info for Strictlyslick

The market may be getting spooked by the results of CYBG,posting losses for the last 6 months. This may undermine their ability to increase their offer substantially from the one on the table. I say if they cant up the offer they can walk away, but nonetheless that will push down our SP until further notice. I'm not fussed, am happy to hold as divi slowly increases and use significant drops to top up. I wasn't planning on selling until at least the �4.00 mark

A reader asked me to do a note on SUMM, and this can now be found at: https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/28/research-note-summit-therapeutics-aim-summ/ To be honest it doesn't add anything you guys don't already know - the company is quite straightforward with its projects and its goals. Still, I hope you enjoy reading it and my other articles. ATB

reflects the profits halving from a year ago when we were already new the low price regions that we are now. Capital spending is reducing to suit the current environment, but I think we're seeing a short term shift of investment from BP. into Shell as it has posted profits far beating expectations and has the BG acquisition trump card still in play. One could of course argue that any share price weakness here represents an opportunity to top up with a decent dividend yield, if you don't believe the divi is under threat. I have written a News Snippet on BP and Shell here for those who are interested. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/11/01/news-snippet-royal-dutch-shell-bp/

...but I am getting more concerned about the dividend being maintainable as oil remains stubbornly low. The companies debt gearing ratio is almost that the company's self imposed limit - what will they do if 30% is breached. Will the company allow debt to rise above this level, or take the decision to impose a dividend cut. Or, will the BG acquisition provide enough fruit by them to keep the divi sustainable. There are many questions as we head into 2017. These points are raised in my most recent snippet https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/11/01/news-snippet-royal-dutch-shell-bp/ ATB

..the markets reaction to this mornings update from Virgin. Update indicated that despite the current economic uncertainty Virgin is performing robustly and, more importantly, in line with its targets. I'm certainly rating the company a buy at present. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/11/01/news-snippet-virgin-money/

Hi Miker, Thanks for your comment. I say it's irrelevant to ONZ as ONZ no longer have a holding in GWIK. You will also see a revised note on PREM today taking into account some of the critiques I received over the weekend. My aim is to generate articles that are balanced, and I appreciate that with PREM I may have been overly negative without taking into account the speculative nature of aim. Future notes will also address the speculative element of AIM, but if I'm asked to do a piece on a company and I wouldn't personally invest in it - I will say so, but always give my reasons. This note I have put onto a couple of other boards only because the respective companies are mentioned therein. Of course I want a reaction, I want people to read the articles that I took the time to write at the end of the day. I also want comments and critiques so I can develop the format of my work to appeal to readers. I'm more risk adverse nowadays and don't hold any positions in AIM companies, so am only researching them on request from readers. I'm sure I will come accross ones that I would invest in as time goes on, and my opinion of the stocks covered are always subject to change. Thanks you for taking the time to read the article. ATB

Hi all, A reader of mine asked me to do a research note on ONZ, and as this is an investment company which had an interest in GWIK, there is an extract about GWIK in the note. I haven't gone into great detail as its not really relevant to ONZ now as the company only invested in GWIK for a month, but you may like the read. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/24/research-note-onzima-ventures-aim-onz/ ATB guys. Comments and constructive criticism are of course welcome.

A reader asked me to prepare a research note on this company, so i have obliged. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/24/research-note-onzima-ventures-aim-onz/ Hope you enjoy reading, and best of luck with your investment to all who are here (hopefully the suspension will be lifted within the 6 month window). Comments ans constructive criticism are always welcome. ATB

Not really much to be said about HSBC at the moment - we seem to be pausing for breath between 610p and 625p before deciding which way to go (hopefully more of the up). In the meantime, we've got another divi coming soon which is always a plus in my book! Whilst there is no news on HSBC, I have done a research piece on Solo Oil yesterday, and a further update today. I know that its a dirty AIM share, and a sub 1p one at that, but there is an investment case there if the company consolidates its shares and continues its recent successes. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/18/news-snippet-solo-oil/ SUFCESSEX - is the deluxe parrot cage gold plated - or is that why you need above 700p? ATB.

The share price rises in response. Perhaps the market was foreseeing a drop in profits, not just a slow down in the increase. Still, good for Ryanair holders that's for sure. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/18/news-snippet-ryanair/

@Gerry557 - True - its position in a defensive sector and its huge reach is of course a big plus. I see your point about the 80p ordinary dividend cited as being payable until the end of 2017. Which patent is coming to an end that's going to cause that to drop? As an income investor i wouldn't be happy with half the divi, and that would place significant downward pressure on the share price unless other news dramatically outweighed the loss of the divi. At current prices a half divi would cut the yield to way below the FTSE average so could cause an exodus of investment. I think I'll stay on the fence and look ahead to future newsflow. @Pokerchips - a fair comment to make.

I'm looking forward to the cartoonists getting a hold of this news and creating some comedy gold. I think that this is excellent PR for Tesco - which they do need at present. Not so great for Unilever of course and it will be interesting to see why this row went public, seeing as prices are always fluctuating... https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/13/news-snippet-tesco-vs-unilever/ ATB

Does the rise in the share price over the past couple of months mean that new investors should stay away, or does the slump in the pound support the price as GSK sees improved earnings in 2016 and 2017. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/12/glaxosmithkline/ I'm wondering if I have missed the boat for this if I should wait on the fence for the time being....hmmmmmm......

@Gerry557 - from the £ perceptive there is now scope for a dividend cut without reducing the £ payout. as London is the primary trading market for Shell could that be a possibility? a 10% trim on the divi now would make a hefty difference? Just thinking out loud there - I don't think its actually going to happen as it is a transparent move and is still a cut no matter how they spun it. Bearing in mind the market consensus is that oil wont rise to sustainable levels of $70 plus till at least 2018, Shell must have budgeted for the medium term at least so I think the divi is safe for at least another year. ATB

Not following me - you keep telling yourself that :-p. looks like you got in just after me (Jan for me initially). I bought in for this share to be an income investment only, but over the year got more and more concerned abut the future of oil prices so looked to ride the peaks and troughs if things went a bit pear shaped. However as mentioned before, I called it wrong so am waiting for a better buy in price if the OPEC deal fails to have the appropriate effect. My long term target is based more on the strangling of investment in the sector coupled with Shells cost cutting and divergence into LNG. I find that having a target price gets people reading more and encourages comments - and we all need a target at which we say we're going to definitely sell or buy - If I was in shell (and I will be again, just you wait!) that is my sell up price ATB

You may well be right there. This will translate into a even bigger dividend yield - great for HSBC investors. Question is, will the pounds dramatic fall have greater repercussions on the world economy which could nullify the upside of the increased divi...That's the question I'd love to have a crystal ball to answer. ATB https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/10/pound-slumps-further/

Towards my target price of £6.50. I think the price rise is being heftily compounded by the pounds devaluation making the dividend look more and more attractive. Certainly not complaining about that fact though, and this is nicely offsetting the drop I'm experiencing over in Easyjet. - though I think the drop there is way overdone. The question is soon going to be for me, will I sell up when my target price is hit - Or do I hold on and enjoy the dividends moving into 2017... ATB http://bit.ly/2dRsxXI

looks like everyone must be selling out of Easyjet and jumping into Shell instead. I'm currently holding on to a petty few A shares from dividends before I sold at £19.30 back in September. I really thought that there would be a further buying opportunity before the share rose up towards my target price (https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/03/rdsb-target-price-24-80/). But looks like I missed the opportunity to buy back cheaper. I'm going to sit and wait for a new buying opportunity. which may occur is the OPEC output cut has a limited effect on the market, or if cartel members break the agreement as has been done in the past. Time will tell if I can get back in at lower levels. ATB. https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/10/pound-slumps-further/

Nice to see a rise in response to the falling £ over the past couple of days. The news has been quite quiet on Virgin Money recently. So, I've done my own analysis: https://riskybearinvesting.com/2016/10/06/virgin-money-target-price-4-00/

Meant to say RDSB, not HSBC of course :-)