Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Zooropa, I agree with you, there. No need - whichever side you are looking in from. Regards Stotters
Freestyler, Cheers. I am not totally convinced that the court notes that I posted were an accurate reflection of what went on in court. However, people were only getting one side of the story on LSE. I thought that it was important that an alternative to the LGO position was available on LSE for people to read, so that they could make up their own minds. From your post, it is clear that you are a MOG holder. What is the big change that you are referring to? Is it the Malta Area that is currently in dispute (a genuine question - I'm not being funny). Also, I am genuinely in wonder that a company that states that it has over £10m in cash (or equivalent) in reserves has an MCAP of only £22m. How is that possible? Regards Stotters
does not necessarily indicate whether a trade is an actual buy or sell. Plenty of LGOs “sells” are “buys”. At the time of writing this… According to LSE: LGO's sp down 0.6% whilst MOG's sp remains the same. According to Google finance: LGO’s sp is up/down 0.6% whilst MOG’s sp is up/down 2.56%. LGO has traded 10m shares, which is a low volume. MOG has traded 850,000 shares. I am under the impression (I may be wrong) that this is also a fairly low volume for MOG. I do not think that there is any indication of a trend either way from a chart that consists of less than one day’s data. However, a look at the 12 month chart shows a very different story: LGO’s sp has fluctuated between 0.64p and 1.25p. The shape of the graph shows that there has been three clear spikes, followed by a period of slow decline. MOG’s sp has fluctuated between 4.04p and 10.09p. The shape of the graph shows a clear downwards trend. So what is your point? I do certainly do not think that there is any evidence that people are aware of what tomorrow’s verdict will be. For anyone to be aware of this information would suggest that the respected judge has leaked his verdict to advantage of one party over another. Is that what you are implying?
What clear trends are you referring to? The sp chart for each company over the past 12 months look very different to me.
I appreciate you taking the time to share your research and opinion. Are you a LGO holder? You should post on the LGO board - they are a friendly lot. It is probably better to discuss LGO matters over there, rather than on this MOG board. I initially posted on this board to show an alternative point of view in relation to the court case (rather than doing it on the LGO board) - no one else seems to post much on this board, so someone had to do it. The only reason that I have posted a few more times is in response to you and Tipsy. In order to keep this board MOG focussed, I have some questions, if you would be so kind as to answer them. I see from the end of year results that MOG's operational profit fell from a @4.1m profit in 2012 (sorry, can't find the Euro symbol button on my iPad, so I'll use @ instead) to a @4.4m loss in 2013. What is the reason for this drop of @8.5m within a year? Cash (and equivalent) increased from @8.7m to @12.4m over the same period. It is good to see the cash increase by @3.7m, but not when the op profit has dropped by more than double this figure. If Genel are not successful, where are MOG's other areas of strength? Are they enough to cover the operational losses, if the operational losses continue at the current rate? At the moment, @12.4m is £10.37m. MOG's MCAP is £22m. I am not aware of another small company whose cash reserves are almost 50% of the MCAP, yet the sp is pretty much at an all time low. What do you think the reason for this is? As always, kind regards Stotters
Before anyone points out the mistake - "I do not think that there is ANYTHING for me to worry about." And....due to the fact that there is a month before drilling, I fully expect LGO's SP to drop a little, as day traders take advantage. The upside for me is that i can now put some more LGO shares into my ISA. This will be an excellent opportunity for MOG holders who are sat on a loss to invest in LGO in order to recoup some of their losses. As soon as the first well is spudded, LGOs sp will quickly rise above 1p.
Ok, unfortunately, my estimation was a little wrong. On the whole, I think that my research was pretty good - just 2 weeks out. I do not think that there's nothing for me to worry about. There is plenty preparation for LGO to do for the other drilling sites (of which there are many). The future is looking very promising. In answer to your question, I am not worried about the costs, as I think that LGO will win. LGO have already paid their legal fees, so we have no more bills in that area. LGO managed to find the money for that, didn't they? Also, if for some reason LGO were to lose, that does not automatically mean that LGO will have an obligation to pay MOGs costs. Has that occurred to you? The issue of costs will be part of the judges verdict. I had to laugh at your Wednesday post. If by some chance MOG won the case, I don't think that that necessarily means that BH has the right to "proceed with a libel claim" against NR or LGO. That seems a little naive. If that was the case, then every person that was cleared of an accusation would be suing the person/persons who made the allegation. The courts would be inundated with these cases. I see that someone is still dumping MOG shares via yet more delayed trades - 470,000 shares at well below the going market price. They clearly do not share your optimism. MOG's MCAP is pretty much at an all time low, after declining for the past 18 months, or so. You must be sat on a fairly sizeable loss at the moment (maybe that is what is making you so touchy?). You will have to excuse me for not heeding your investment warnings. Stotters
I will restate that I do not wish for investors for either MOG or LGO to lose money. However, I was just challenging some opinions. And I do not agree that LGO is being sold, whilst MOG is being bought. I believe that the trading for MOG and LGO since the court case has been rather unusual. I have been looking on L2, and the LGO trades appear to mainly have been buys (despite being shown as sells), but the sp has fallen a little. I am not too concerned about this, as the volume has been low. The MOG sp has been rising. However, this is on larger than average volumes, which have regularly included large delayed sells. I genuinely do not know how to interpret this. The sentiment that you are mentioning does not correlate with the trades that are occurring. I guess that things will only become clear in the future. If LGO did drop to 0.7p (which it won't), I will be filling my boots. I think that we have all had our say on this, so I'll wish you all well and leave in peace. Stotters
My posts were mainly in response to Tipsy. However, as you ask a question....No rig timeline has been unfulfilled. It is true that mobilisation is later than we would have liked, but this delay was down to the Environmental Management Agency taking over 6 months to issue the Certificate of Environmental Clearance - I am sure that MOG holders can understand the frustration that LGO has experienced in this area, as MOG has had similar issues in Italy. This meant that the rig was not available and we have had to wait for it. It is not too much of an issue, as there are many drill sites for the LGO staff to prepare for, in anticipation of the 30 wells that we are about to drill. Rig 20 will be spudding shortly - I reckon the drill will be on site by 2nd April. You can hold me to that one. As soon as the first well is spudded, a sub 1p sp will be a thing of the past. Your claim of 0.7p will just not happen. True, I would rather that LOG was not tied up with YAGM. But c'est la vie. It's only for another 11 months. It was good that NR put a clause in the deal with YAGM, preventing them from dumping their shares on the market. Who do you think may have been dumping all those MOG shares since the court case started? Genuine question for you there, Mogger. There have been some very large sells going through for tens of thousands of pounds. Quite a number of them have only been reported after the market closed. A bit sneaky, that. Clearly there is at least one investor who does not have the same level of confidence in MOG that you have.
Yeah, a £22,500 sell, followed by yet another large delayed sell (£47,500). There have been quite a number of those delayed sells now. That must be the change in sentiment towards MOG that you are talking about. I notice that you didn't answer my previous q.
I am an LGO holder. However, if LGO win, I will not gain any satisfaction at the expense of MOG holders. We have all invested our money (hopefully after sufficient research) - we are not able to have control over the actions of the execs of the companies. No one wants to lose money. I think that both LGO and MOG are both decent companies, and both look like they will be profitable for investors, especially from the current sp's. I do not have too much knowledge about MOG (as I am not a holder)., but they are pretty much at an all time low sp. I believe that (whatever the outcome) MOGs sp will increase. If I had the spare money, I think that I would be tempted to invest here. I do not think that MOG will win the case (but that is only my opinion). The case is not 50/50. Whilst nothing is a certainty in court, I do believe that LGO are more likely than not to win. LGO (which being an investor, I am more knowledgable on) are on the brink of a large drilling campaign, that I am confident will increase production x4 or x5 in around 12 months. There are also several other operational areas that look very promising (read the LGO page if you are interested - especially from the 19th/20th Feb). I have no doubt that LGO will have a much higher MCAP in 12-24 months. The biggest risk that LGO have over the next 12 months is YAGM playing with the shares. However, their placing price is 0.76p. As such, they will not want the sp to drop this low. LGO will most definitely not drop to 0.7p. The Goudron rig mobilisation is due at the beginning of April - this is the last chance that YAGM or the MMs have to play with the sp before the LGO sp moves above 1p permanently. What are you basing your assumption that LGO will drop to 0.70p on? Thin air?
I spoke to NR at the Proactive Investors presentation. He reckoned that the judge would take about 30 days to give a verdict. I think that LGO have proven that MOG withheld information that should have been divulged to LGO, in order for MOG to materially benefit. The question is, is this illegal, or just immoral? That is what the judge will be deciding. Firstly, i think that this scenario must have occurred in British courts many times before, so this should not be too complicated a case. Secondly, I cannot believe that a precedent could be set where a business can deceive their partner in this way - how could business function, if there if no trust? Thirdly, I believe that LGO shareholders have been cheated out of potentially millions of dollars. NR has an obligation to his shareholders to try and get this back - if LGO had been given a fair cut of Genel's money, they may not have had to do a placing and got involved with YAGM.
Tipsy, what are you basing the claim "Sounds to me like LGO wished they had not brought the case" on? LGO did want to bring the case to court, evidenced by the fact that they brought the case to court! You finish your paragraph, stating "Boy do both side wish they'd come to an arrangement before this all got started!" If this had been the case, it would have implied that MOG had a case to answer and paid LGO to keep it out of court.
JM comments that ERC has a different function to Stellar. TZ says that the easiest way to keep LGO in the dark would to have served a Default notice but delayed serving in good faith. Clarified that a "closed period" was not the same as closed to a deal as hinted by LGO. TZ again says that LGO are behind on debts and NR is not being paid a salary for period Sep2011-June2012. TZ talks about the LGO accusations and I write "Beyond elaborate". Finished 3.50 NK has another bite. He says their case is not elaborate and the most straight forward in the world. More of the same. Finishes at 4.30 ============ Judge says "I will Reserve Judgement" and that's it folks. The judgement could easily take 6 months. I have tried not to mislead and off to watch Line of Duty. Will come back after. Bobajob will hopefully write more tomorrow. I must admit to not reading his stuff because he is a dyed in the wool LGO fan and I can only take so much of the legal arguments. He has a gig this evening and I doubt he'll write anything until tomorrow. We had a game of "footie" in no man's land afterwards. Hostilities are over for now, plus he owes me a pint.
JM commented regarding the phone call "nobody says, "how's it going"" regarding farm out. NK says NR was "blindsided" and only told negatives, no positives on the 10/7 phone call. Sergio Morandi NOT IN ON FRAUD says NK. Around this time NK drops emphasis on Comfort Letter and some comments about DCF in the ERC report is the only way to value the asset. JM says he has to accept NR evidence that it would not have helped LGO with Zeus being kept in the dark. JM adds "we're talking to people" is all that NR would have got if he had asked the question on farm out to BH. [inference, he wouldn't have been any the wiser (my words)]. For those who care; NK mentioned the Parabola case and Downs & Chappell as being precedents. Finishes 12.32 TZ starts and says "We utterly reject the wide spread accusations which are of a sweeping nature". Which does kinda sum up the LGO case imo. He again suggested that NR has reverse engineered his view. He highlights that NR says farm out not always essential which contradicts NK's earlier assertion. TZ says a data room tells you nothing about other discussions happening and that is normal in the oil business. Formal marketing should continue whatever as MOG is under pressure and if this failed, that was it. On 6/7 MOG could not possibly know the Genel would do the deal and could pull out at any stage (Dominion example given). Another example of evidence hidden by MOG in plain view was the 9/7 proactive video about the new data room. Farm out continuous since 2010. Invention or recreation with hindsight after the event was a reference to LGO evidence. I've then got pages of stuff which argue the opposite to NK, all old ground imo. One item I did note was the accusation that the OpComm agenda hid positives. Apparently it was covered in P and L's which mean plays and leads. As NR didn't read them it was obviously a clever part of the MOG Fraud strategy. NR had lost focus on what he was being told or shown. Apparently the Stellar website had Jurassic leads/plays as well as the bulletin. Carefully hidden in plain sight. Mention of positive economics on website but not sure which one. TZ says DCF NOTACCEPTED as valuation (one for Eagles, didn't understand). JM comments that ERC has a different function to Stellar.
Groundhog day: That's what it felt like. At one stage, our brief Tony Zacoroli (TZ) said after following the LGO brief, Neil Kitchener (NK) that it was like listening to two different cases. The judge Justice Males (JM) said "that's not unusual". I must say that it gives you an idea when the only humour in Court does come from the judge. When asked by NK if "Your Honour" was happy with the arrangement of yet more copious document files he replied "ecstatic". NK stareted off the closing submissions. His opening sentences said that this case would not turn on law which completely threw me. English law does not allow one man to mislead another. Intentions of representation and is BH an honest man? His main import was that the 10/7/12 was not a courtesy call but the basis for the Fraud. A mention was made here by JM that the call/meeting was set up on the 6th when the Genel interest was not known. NK then said that BH then fed negative info about the asset. Important info about positive economics was suppressed. JM states that the deal still has an 89% chance of failure. Then there was a lottery ticket analogy from NK which I didn't get. The bulletins that went out (not sure of date) from Stellar mentioned positive economics but LGO said they never got them. The proposed OpComm agenda suppressed positive economics by leaving two columns out. At 10.52 chaos as Kitchener hisses "I need those documents now" to his staff. Panic ensues, people disappear and NK develops a pronounced stutter. I made a note here that judge starts helping Mishcon. I make another note in capitals "flogging a dead horse" (my words). It really was that dire but eventually NK got the rhythm back. NK says that MOG have all the info and LGO are totally reliant on them. He himself accepts that it is not a widows and orphans scenario. JM says "is it a case of MOG fed up with LGO not paying their bills". NK replies LGO not legally in default but it could be a psychological explanation for (not sure which side). Another analogy or demotic as NK like obscure words. Two share a house that needs repairs. Formal sale in one weeks time, ad placed in gazette. Other party sits on an existing good offer and says nothing. That's fraud. NK says nod, wink, unsaid many ways to Mislead. BH gave inaccurate info. JM says to NK "NR didn't ask BH, are you talking to anyone". NK replies that BH is trying to forestall that question. JM mentions that is he saying "you should hear from the owner, not the estate agent's window" as more info was in the bulletins. I thought this was telling from JM when he followed up with "my impression is it's quite a small world" in reference to farming out. NK says that farm out is essential. JM commented regarding the phone call "nobody says, "how's it going"" regarding farm out. NK says NR was "blindsided" and only told negatives,
I think that both shares are currently undervalued, due to the impact of the court case related uncertainty. Both have good prospects. Once the judge has given a verdict, the sp's for both companies should rise (although I am hoping that LGO's will rise more quickly after a verdict in our favour) The main problem for MOG holders, is that it is going to take quite a hefty sp increase just for quite a number of PI's to break even, after the persistent decline that MOG has been experiencing for the past 18 months or so. Fortunately for a lot of LGO holders, most PI's will be in profit fairly soon.
That is only one side of the debate from the MOG bb on iii. Both sides are arguing their position. Even if you read all of the information provided by those who attended the court case, there is still conflicting information. To be honest, I do think that NR was deliberately deceived. However, whether this is considered to be illegal, rather than just immoral, well, that is for the judge to decide. I do not think that this is a particularly complicated case for an experienced judge. Surely this sort of situation must have occurred lots of times in the past, so there should be lots of precedent. Hopefully, one way or the other, this matter will be resolved by the end of tomorrow, then both companies can get on with producing oil - so that we can all make money.
10:49 - Afterthoughts - Romaron ****************** I missed mentioning an observation in my last post. It revolves around a lack of communication which neither side zeroed in on. A lot of what came up could have been avoided by NR just ringing MOG and asking the right questions. Has anybody else noticed this phenomena. When sombody owes you money and is late paying they tend to not call you as often and avoid meetings? Sufi - I would liked to have met you yesterday. That is some beard, man. I saw pictures of you all over the place when I went for a trip on the Nile a few years ago [for LGO readers; that's the river I'm talking about not denial]. If its OK with you and with respect, I'd like to call you The Pharaoh. Are you going to the Court tomorrow? I am.
I've been thinking about today being cancelled and I feel an approach has been made by LGO. It looks like the experts are not needed as the extra expense will probably only increase costs for them. They would have to prove a loss and Quantum (not MOG) and frankly nothing has come out in Court to help them. My best guess is that they will say that they accept that Fraud never took place and MOG will own up to overstaying on a double yellow. Both sides will pay their costs and life will resume. MOG have a lot to catch up on and NR will be having a long chat with DL. I think the case by LGO has been reckless and that NR is a poisonous little straw-clutcher who has cost two sets of innocent shareholder considerable amounts of hard earned money. Am I right. How do I know? We take a view on what we read and hear. That's why we invest. There is a buy of MOG shares today of 500,000 (2 x 250,000), that was me. I was out later with a few pals I'd made (Sid inveigled his way in again) and later (quite a lot later actually) I was stumbling towards Chancery Lane when I spotted some familiar faces (beer glasses on so no guarantee) from the Court gathered around an old Bentley with the hood up They had sat on the LGO side so I have assumed they were drowning their sorrows. One looked hazily across to me and waved. I asked if they were OK and he said "piston broke". I answered, "that's why you should think twice before giving money to lawyers."