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Personally think if NHS want more lab capacity they will just add it (that might take some time though). Having more lab capacity available also theoretically makes country more resilient to any future pandemic as well.
Price unpredictable these last sessions, especially if more big buying emerges.
BTW, what do people think is the probability of success for the RXC007 Phase 2 trial that's meant to be concluding within the next two months or so?
It's getting a full recommendation for stroke product. But problem is that full recommendation for this is basically saying "only use when lab test not available". I think this stock is very unlikely to delist as not much for them to get from that as things stand right now.
I'd be far more convinced if a major health fund/II bought in again or helped directly with fundraising as long-term investor. Even CEO/CFO buying would lend a little confidence to this. Guess they'll probably announce another drawdown from RF at the beginning of next month to keep the lights on.
The recent big buyer was Tang. If they or someone like them start that again, price will rise. But at this precise moment, it feels like it's mainly trickle of sells going through by people who presumably can't/don't want to hold this anymore due to delisting.
Seems like Tang could easily afford to buy REDX outright. Even if they end up having to pay multiples of current SP for much of the shares.
Rayte's question explains why a lot of people sell in this situation (especially if smallish holding). Mine in a SIPP but also hassle as I'm having to get it transferred to a different provider so I have the option of trading it on the Jenkins platform (though wouldnt be surprised if more brokers sign up to Jenkins now). Also does anyone think some IIs will try to sell now because they have shares in a fund where the mandate is for holding listed companies (rather than private companies)? My guess is II like that with smallish holding will offload - would be surprised if Polar would sell all at these low prices as they have more to lose?
Roger, It's going to be a full recommendation for stroke product (not EVA like for AIHL). But you have to look at the wording of the guidance. It says "when lab testing not available". Who knows what actual demand will look like.
"getting at"
One thing that's obvious is a lot of people have been sceptical of the motives to delist. But I've seen this share on days when liquidity is really low and it can just drop in price with few little trades. I think company is getting out the outlook if they remain on AIM. i.e Having to do fund raisings at dumb price levels just because.
Not sure where you get the 90% number from though Kevin. It's basically 100% PIs. You might see firms mentioned on Bloomberg etc, but I think you'll find these are actually just the brokers for people like us. You can't count anything RF may have at any one time as they sell on their shares straight away. (They've never been above the 3% threshold anyway.)
Some larger ones might not consider it due to small market cap, but there are specialist investors. Like tkevin says, none of em see GDR as an investment!
Bighammer, There are specialist healthcare funds that could have invested something in GDR within the past couple of years, but they don't. They choose not to. GDR used to have that kind of back a few years back. If they still don't come back within next few months would be sceptical about prospects for either product (it might just be down to timelines and uncertainty). GDR may engineer some kind of placing without a named investor I suppose - a kind of fast in and out by bucket shops as they did in their last traditional placing some time ago. But that's not quite the same as having a couple of long term iis on board.
Yes, and also just read this bit in a Times article from mid Feb:
Lisa Anson, the chief executive of Redx, said that most of the large specialist biotechnology investors were based in the United States, “so inevitably you start to look more and more towards the US investor base. And in order to access those pools of capital you do need to be ultimately US-listed. So we will look at that as a board. We have managed to attract US investment, notwithstanding the fact that we are listed on Aim.”
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Asked whether Redx would look to switch its listing from Britain to America or would have a dual listing, she said: “The board will look at quite a number of options.”
As you said yesterday moniman, perhaps the reason to delist is just to get the valuation up private - before a US listing within 12 months from...?!
Interesting how C4 seems to have held up better with similar type of announcement. Guess the PI shareholder base here was just weaker at the onset...
I didn't expect the SP to fall again today! But from the share trades looks like someone is taking advantage of it.
Good point Jimi. Might be difference between short and long term though. I noticed NHS are now ADVERTISING for people to get hepatitis tests. So it seems like they have expanded lab capacity for that quite a lot. Just saying, I think this could go the same way in the end.
Slacker, I think my post not clear. Was actually talking about prospects for the stroke test. If you read the guidance it says to recommend "when lab testing not available"!! (That's why I think it a bit different to AIHL)
Jimi,
I think different to AIHL situation as guidance seems to be saying that it's just to be used when lab testing not available and also for certain stroke patients. But it seems you're right, if trusts want to use, they should be able to get funding for it from the central NHS budget is my take. How many of them will take it up straight away? Who knows. Makes me think a bit like what happened with their hepatitis solution could happen, where in the end the NHS basically goes all in on lab testing instead.
Interesting this time people have negative sentiment after presentation, when many on here seemed to be quite up beat after the last one. I not watched latest yet. The obvious thing is they not yet saying how they going to keep the lights on beyond next month, right!