focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
The trades going through are tiny anyway.....end of the day, there's the short term and long term. This benefits no one in the very short term (except someone who was lucky enough to have a short position open this morning..)
I basically agree with Bermuda and will look to hold on.
Somewhat ironic. I have large holding here. I chose cause I really thought this was a quality biotech play on AIM, rather than one of more sketchy ones. Obviously short term hit to share price/value, but not sure on long term horizon. As their quality here. So I'm thinking I should get a lot more than this current price further down the line....
That would make sense. They want to be bought by private equity company. But what will be the price agreed to do that by the IIs? They obviously the ones making the decisions here.
I been investing for a long time, but never had this happen. Just looked up what someone said about C4 and shares when down about 25% when they made identical announcement 5 days ago. But the IIs seem to want this to happen. So at some point they obviously think they are going to get much more than previous value for their shares??!!
I love this line from the article. Comedy gold:
"Summing up Genedrive's interim results, the company delivered solid revenue growth, narrowed its operating loss significantly, and achieved material operational progress for its lead assets MT-RNR1 and CYP2C19. "
Crooty, Northern Rock used to offer mortgages like that before they went bust. You never know
I might buy some GDR after the fundraising. Expect it will be at a discount. I don't think GDR have ever done a placing at market price or a premium in their history!
Ah HE1 very similar types of companies aren't they Jam. GDR has loads in common with company that aspires to mine hydrogen in Africa. lol
"Finally, we will seek to raise further equity funding in the coming weeks in order to provide a longer-term financing solution for the Company's exciting growth plans."
Presumably that means an equity placing is coming in April. So why is anyone buying this share today?
Lol Gloria, double check your medication dosage
I didn't write it. It was from an extract from a veteran analyst's report for Hardman published on 12 January:
https://rtfilesprod.blob.core.windows.net/originalnotes/Hardman%20HI%20review%20of%202023%20-%20%20Jan%202024.pdf?sv=2019-07-07&sr=b&sig=o3wCbq5RCZNEbNkSwqjX0c318J0p721ayMUq8g200Lo%3D&se=2024-03-26T21%3A24%3A24Z&sp=r
Hardman report:
From recent Hardman report:
Genedrive
As the old saying goes: “if it is difficult to understand, it is almost certainly detrimental
to shareholders”. Never has this been more true than in the case of Genedrive (and
more recently, Sareum). Although I accept that the board was probably in a difficult
position with a shareholder list of mostly retail investors, but desperate for cash, the
loan facility announced in March 2023 with Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC Ltd
(Riverfort) is extremely complex. After more than 35 years as an analyst, I consider
myself reasonably financially literate. However, I can honestly say that I have read
this agreement at least 10 times and I still do not fully understand it!
In summary, Riverfort made £5m available to the company. £2m was drawn down
immediately with the remaining £3m available for £0.3m monthly drawdown subject
to certain conditions being fulfilled. The loan capital is being repaid through the
issuance of new shares to Riverfort priced on a specific calculation (reference price)
and can be sold in the market, based on a series of conditions related to daily
volumes traded. On each drawdown, Riverfort also receives warrants equal to 40%
of the drawdown at the recalculated reference price, exercisable at 140% of this
reference price. The following table shows what has happened to date.
In my opinion, this deal is very bad for shareholders. To date, the issue of shares to
repay the loan capital represents dilution of 32.3%. The main reason for this is that
Riverfort is not a long-term shareholder, as evidenced by the fact that it sold down
its holding of 6.5m shares received in April to only 2.95m (-55%) by July. Even
though it has received more shares, its holding is not disclosed as being >3.0%
declarable threshold. Therefore, it is continually selling shares, which, in turn, causes
the share price to fall, making the next drawdown even more expensive.
Based on the current share price, Genedrive will need to issue an estimated18.25m
more shares and a further 8.0m warrants, which would provide the potential to raise
another £0.85m. dilution of 56% and in the
event that all the warrants are exercised, this would increase to 78%, but potentially
raise a further ca.£2.8m. However, given that most of the warrants are out of the
money, there is a high probability that the warrants will not be exercised.
Amazingly, Sareum announced a similar deal with the same investor in November.
On the evidence of GDR, guess where the share price is going!
From recent Hardman report:
Genedrive
As the old saying goes: “if it is difficult to understand, it is almost certainly detrimental
to shareholders”. Never has this been more true than in the case of Genedrive (and
more recently, Sareum). Although I accept that the board was probably in a difficult
position with a shareholder list of mostly retail investors, but desperate for cash, the
loan facility announced in March 2023 with Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC Ltd
(Riverfort) is extremely complex. After more than 35 years as an analyst, I consider
Takeout price looks good compared
with fund raise…
…but many shareholders forced to
crystalise losses
Two shareholders could end up with
98.5% of company
Avoid when its too complicated to get
your head around
Hardman & Co Healthcare Index
12 January 2024 14
myself reasonably financially literate. However, I can honestly say that I have read
this agreement at least 10 times and I still do not fully understand it!
In summary, Riverfort made £5m available to the company. £2m was drawn down
immediately with the remaining £3m available for £0.3m monthly drawdown subject
to certain conditions being fulfilled. The loan capital is being repaid through the
issuance of new shares to Riverfort priced on a specific calculation (reference price)
and can be sold in the market, based on a series of conditions related to daily
volumes traded. On each drawdown, Riverfort also receives warrants equal to 40%
of the drawdown at the recalculated reference price, exercisable at 140% of this
reference price. The following table shows what has happened to date.
In my opinion, this deal is very bad for shareholders. To date, the issue of shares to
repay the loan capital represents dilution of 32.3%. The main reason for this is that
Riverfort is not a long-term shareholder, as evidenced by the fact that it sold down
its holding of 6.5m shares received in April to only 2.95m (-55%) by July. Even
though it has received more shares, its holding is not disclosed as being >3.0%
declarable threshold. Therefore, it is continually selling shares, which, in turn, causes
the share price to fall, making the next drawdown even more expensive.
Based on the current share price, Genedrive will need to issue an estimated18.25m
more shares and a further 8.0m warrants, which would provide the potential to raise
another £0.85m. dilution of 56% and in the
event that all the warrants are exercised, this would increase to 78%, but potentially
raise a further ca.£2.8m. However, given that most of the warrants are out of the
money, there is a high probability that the warrants will not be exercised.
Amazingly, Sareum announced a similar deal with the same investor in November.
On the evidence of GDR, guess where the share price is going!
Popeye, Where did you get that figure from for RF shareholding? They not listed on this page at all:
http://www.genedriveplc.com/investor-relations/shareholders.php
I think day to day moves we've had lately are mainly just down to low volumes. If there is a background seller, they can only be selling small amounts....
Why worry? Bound to be some really positive statements on Thursday. Just don't think about the numbers...
What you say is true Crooty. I wondered if this had changed, so I thought maybe some IIs were going to come forward "early in 2024." Of course, that doesn't seem to have happened...
Should be good on Monday. Just had great session in the USA.
If specialist commissioning was near, you would have already heard something from NHS England. Reason being is they have a process to consider these things, including a public consultation phase. As for the FDA, GDR is meant to be announcing how they propose to fund the necessary testing to secure it. They haven't even applied for FDA. They just had discussions with FDA officials to understand what they'll need to do in terms of data generation etc to secure it.
PR people are meant to make you feel better....it's what they're paid for.