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Looks to me like SP at absolute low again. If it doesn't bounce of this like last time, it looks likely to head into the 3s.
I don't think Riverfort is going for "control", Popeye. They've been selling off the shares as soon as they get them following drawdowns. They've never appeared on the shareholder register for this reason. But I for one wouldn't invest in GDR until there's some clarity on funding for the next 18 months.
Hopefully. I've been following some of the US chatboards on this and posters generally seem to think the chart still looks very good, despite the pullback.
RENX will be talking to the main shareholders. What would they accept, the people who own a 10% chunk? 8op minimum? 120p minimum or 150p minimum, for example?
Obviously if they think the best offer is too low, they'll be looking at securing some kind of fundraise. Given there's an offer in the background to me it would be logical if any fundraise was at market price rather than discounted.
MAJ, ok, I get it the company has very little cash. But you're saying the firm has fabricated the whole thing and they don't even have an offer on the table. That's going a bit too far surely.
It makes sense. The RNS did say big diagnostics company. There aren't that many of them. And bound to be a US firm isn't it.
Way I view it, if it's takeover, offer will at least 52p based on share price of the RNS and a minimum 30% premium (I'm thinking maybe could go as high as 70p). Otherwise, it could be a fundraise at 40p or a bit below (possibly at as low as 30p given the discount with these things you can get sometimes.)
Obviously the cash is low. But on the plus side, it's got some long term II backing from Polar Capital etc, recent progress on regulatory/market access and now they say a possible bid on the table too. If the bid is too low, then the current IIs will want to support a fresh fund raise.
The reason doesn't matter and we can't hope to know exactly the reason either because we're not insiders and they don't tell us everything/much/and only what they want us to know/or what they have to tell us.
"Point-of-care (PoC) molecular technologies have emerged as a viable strategy for improving clinical management of HCV, as they facilitate diagnosis and treatment programmes with the possibility to work in rural, resource-limited settings."
Don't think so Jimi as GDR's test for this has been shelved completely. GDR probably did say that once though.
Jimi's post makes me think of that old TV programme "Tomorrow's World". Anyone remember that?
But I got to agree, that must be what will happen EVENTUALLY. Will be a long, long time before it does though.
(Interesting noticed advert on a bus the other day of NHS rolling out screening for Hepatitis! GDR was trying to sell this as a POC test for years. Yes, they were right about Hepatitis screening going into demand. But NHS aint doing with POC, it's decided to do it with home test kits instead (a bit like what happened in COVID).)
From RNS of December 20, quite clear initial overseas orders were for demonstrators. So you can show what kind of product you have on your books:
"The initial orders will support genedrive's international distribution partners in promotion and in-country evaluation activities in their respective countries, to provide more extensive access to this life-changing test."
I think it's 50/50 now in which direction this could go in the near term. I'm sure LONG term prospects will be good though. Argentina for instance could take a while......
It's just where GDR are in the "commercialisation" process. Still not really very far down the road. Adopters in the UK are the exception rather than the rule. More work to do to secure NICE or get specialist commissioning. In Europe it's similar. You try to appoint distributors early though so you can show investors and stakeholders you've got your ducks set up in line as much as possible. Inspiration for the UK was appointed years ago.
My view is that this could double in fairly short order. But there may still be a background seller to clear first.
On Nomadme's point: I've seen stocks move up quite significantly after these sort of conferences. Doesn't always happen like that either though.
Would become a buy again for me if they can get funding secured for the next 18 months.....
Really interesting situation. Commercial/regulatory progress has attracted major attention in the industry. Though coincides with point where they were due to look at raising cash. So now they've effectively got two options on the table. It might even work out better for shareholders if they don't actually accept a takeover offer (though we don't know what that is yet anyway).
I'm watching 3 similar type companies at the moment, GDR is one, the other two are Creo Medical and RENX. All three are going to need cash quite soon. But GDR is the one least advanced with commercialisation by a long way. On the other hand, it could be quite interesting when GDR does get its first meaningful sales (if it does) as you could see big increase in share price from that point. Trouble is, to get there they are going to need a lot more cash, so inevitable dilution coming on top of the dilution people have actually already suffered due to this awful death spiral finance. Has anyone ever come across another company in this sector (pharma/biotech) where they've had to use death spiral? Hoping they will do conventional fundraise and this will present a big opportunity to get in.
No Jimi, The £327k is the cash burn after they've factored in receipt of the £800k tax credit. It's on the presentation slide. The real cash burn is still £400k per month.
Giving them "a longer window for their planned financing activities."
Also key words.
£600k = 1.5 months in GDR cash burn terms, or if they've had the tax credit, they've currently got £1.4m = 3.5 months.
But I think they would still go with the original plan and do the main fundraise this quarter. Why wait much longer, unless you got no one to fund you?