RE: H2 movement π25 Aug 2025 20:10
There is little evidence to suggest things (either operational or bureaucratic process) have made progress.
The farm out idea is no doubt good, but realistically MB have been talking about JV and Farm out deals for years and until it has happened, it hasn't.
When certain posters quoting the 30,000bopd needed for the oil refinery currently being built and funded by the Indian, they never mention the delay.
Furthermore, to put into perspective, how many more H1 wells are needed to fill up the refinery. Let's do a basic calculation based on H1 production of 150bopd.
30,000 / 150 = 200. It means Matad will need 199 more wells like H1 to make full capacity of the refinery.
The question then becomes, how much time and money is needed to drill another 199 wells. Taking H1 for reference, Matad needed 5 years to sort out all the paperwork, licensing and other operational work to get it where it is today, and yet, the well did not perform to expectations.
To further my point about Matad needing 199 more H1 wells to fill up the refinery capacity, there is no information about how much the farm in party are willing to financially commit if the deal goes through.
Even if each well would have a cost of Β£1million attached to it, that would be Β£199millions to reach 30,000bopd to maximise the refinery capacity.
Except in reality, each well would cost more than Β£1million to drill, and the COS will probably be closer to 1 out of 10 wells, then there is the flow rate to be considered, not all successful wells will deliver 150bopd, take H2 for example, it's considered commercial at 30bopd. Lastly, the time required to reach 30,000 will take years of work.
MATD had taken 5 years to get H1 where it is today and still haven't sorted out the tax issues.
The point I'm making is this could take years even if everything goes towards MBs plan. Except I don't think it will.
It has been months and H1 production rate hasn't been improved. In fact it has further dropped. H2 hasn't been rectified neither and tax issue remains unresolved.
Factor in the winter shut down and any further work will take longer than many think.
No I do not trust MB quoting work will begin next week etc. It's all lies based on past statements and timescales.
It's not that all rosy as the rampers are suggesting.
All in my opinion and DYOR