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I would never say we have reached the bottom any incremental bad news and it will fall further why wouldn’t it. Also market is composed of all different trading motives - quants contribute much more to the trading volume.

As for the analyst estimates those are point estimates and usually pretty bad ones specifically for anything 18 months +. You can show that previously high estimates for Wizz of 1200m where basically unreachable because you know what the fleet would look like and the RASK they would have to reach was completely unrealistic. Now it is turning the other way. Looking at FY27 estimates at call it 7800 Rev/580 NI. This would imply a 10% reduction vs. the delivery implied revenue of 8700 at somewhat softer pricing. Now if this would happen trough Airbus delays this is a positive, if you model this on pricing entirely this is completely unrealistic and does not match the modeling of any other airline yet the pricing is fairly consistent within the short-medium haul market. On profitability - analyst do not model EU ETS, they do not model the impact of different fleet compositions on overall pricing sensitivity. Sell-side is a lot about covering your ass - you usually don't want to be out there with a 150%+ price target (like Bernstein) and you want to be right on next quarter, half year or FY numbers.

Lastly Wizz not wanting to compete with Ryanair. I would defiantly not say they want to compete with Ryanair, but I strongly disagree with your comment. They are moving east because the market is under penetrated, the aviation market is opening up (which has been the point where LCC/ULCCs enter the market looking at the US/EU history) they want to have different seasonality patterns etc. Also they don't avoid Ryanair. If you look at where they expanded most over the last couple of years it is Italy a Ryanair stronghold. And both are doing well there. Actual capacity deployment in east is fairly low as of now.

Yes I am building a position hence why I am interesting in any bear perspective. Though I am not as optimistic as some hear. Bankruptcy a realistic scenario my perspective. So I personally will limit the position size. I just see an attractive expected value based on the data I have as of this point in time.

So you can pay non IFRS 16 debt with cash on hand. For JOLCO or IFRS 16 debt I don‘t see why there would be the necessity to do so.

Agree if they don’t earn money they will at some point.

But is Wizz not about expected return i.e. I think there is a 5%-10% default risk at the same time I think there is a >30% chance I get to stage length adjusted (ex-fuel) CASK levels on par with Ryanair. I mean just the pricing benefit of EU ETS fully implemented by 2026 would result in more than one percentage point of relative competitiveness?

I mean it is about probability of different scenarios. Going bankrupt

I would be interested for the "bears", what the thesis looks. So I get the downside scenario. War in the Middle East, problems in deploying capacity, potential CASK cost creep etc. obviously there is a risk of bankruptcy over the next couple of years. On the other hand there are straight forward scenarios that would imply 700-900m profit in FY 27/28. So how are you weighing those scenarios to come up with your bearish stance. What data points and expectations is that based on.