Member Info for stewart1964

Agree with previous posts, it's about sustainability of the Dividend and then comparing a possible reduced dividend to cash rates that look likely to be elevated north of 5% for years not months. Clearly our own MPC haven't got the balls to tackle inflation, and that will likely lead to sticky inflation persisting longer along with higher rates. The Market are right to have lost faith in the MPC's ability to control inflation, they have made simply dreadful decisions over the last few years, Cath Mann excepted.

As most of the capital here was raised from sub ipos as high as 130p..it's getting to the stage that if you had invested pro rata from the initial offering and subsequent sub ipos you would be looking at a woeful return including dividends. Indeed if you had missed the initial share price surge and then continued to invest in the sub ipos you are almost certainly looking at a loss atvthsws distressed levels.

The problem here is that better quality assets also attract big discounts. 60% maybe overdone but why risk it. GCP Infr ( middling quality)...40% discount...TRIG ( premium quality) 20% discount. Or heck you can just bang it in NS and I at 6.2%.

Hugh Pill's comment last week that he intended to stick at 5.25% did wonders for adjusting rate expectations and indeed GCP stock price.

Reality maybe dawning again. CPI should come in at a woeful 7.0% this month, UP. We are still behind the curve and trailing the FED ( 5.5%) that have inflation under control. Anybody would think it was the other way around and is was this side of the Pond we had inflation under control. Meanwhile we cowtow to the commentators that beg for cuts, Liam Halligan in particular, like the MPC are imbeciles for considering rate rises. No consideration for the fact inflation has been four times over target for two whole years and that you we need five years of deflation to get back to target. Of course the 2% target is meaningless now. Over the eighteen year cycle, inflation has averaged 2.8%. The Chumps on the Committee have missed target by 40% and nobody believes in the target anymore.

Amazed the drop has continued down to 68p.I'm afraid the Doves have caused this negative sentiment on Bond proxies. Instead of a short sharp shock the Bank have messed about with quarter point rate rises..Dinghra and Tenreyro tried to stick at 3%, which now seems laughable in the face of record service and wage inflation . Meanwhile debtors are moaning about negative real rates and the Establishment make all the wrong noises which the Market perceive have an inflationary bias, not even close to a 2% target. Sorry but if you are behind the curve the pain will last longer, only Cath Mann on the MPC appears to realise this.

It's been riding at a 4% yield discount to the maximum available one year fixed bond on the open market, where you can currently get 6%. So hitting a 10% yield was to be expected.

The inflation outlook is frankly beyond awful, record wage inflation this century, record service sector inflation and a core rate mired at 6.9%. The BOE have basically completely lost control, they will have to keep raising to probably a 6% base, and no relief in sight until 2026. Meanwhile the Market is mindful that journos are putting pressure on the Bank to pause rises . But all this quarter point slowly approach does is mean rates will have to stay higher for longer (years). Debtors need a 6% immediate base rate rise, because restaurants are rammed, you can't get a trader for love nor money. There is simply a chronic labour shortage and billions sloshing around in unearned Covid printing. 90 % of consumers are still loaded.

Shocking wage (record raises)and inflation data.( record service sector inflation, unchanged core), plus the spectre of a Labour Government in 2024 killing the price now, sub 2017 ( Covid crash aside). And heck you may well be able to get 6.5% risk free on a bond soon. Boe will have to keep raising, forget the hype on yesterday's CPI drop, the figures were beyond dreadful. I guess BBC journos with their big mortgages were clutchimgvst straws touting 6.8 as a success. Look at Core and Wage inflation.

Absolutely agree 4% + over SONIA looks harsh

SONIA currently 4.4% / GCP 8.8%......meanwhile the 7.2% wage rise for the year was another real shocker. Base rates are 4.5% are lagging horrendously to get ahead of the curve. The fact that Bailey is showing no remorse or apoligy for his imbecilic comments that the post Covid inflation was transitory shows how little accountable the MPC have for their massive errors and loose Monetary policy back in 2021.

My comment that this had tracked the base rates 4% over Sonia was based on approx. 9% over 4.5% currently. Were Sonia to go to 5.5% as predicted then this would need a 10% yield which means a price of 70p.

I bailed out of GCP at 91p on the day the Bank of England yet again admitted that it had got its inflation forecast badly wrong. As this appears to require a 4% premium over Market rates then the direction of base rates suggested to me that another revaluation was coming. It may now have hit the bottom, too late for me have locked into FSCS 5% bonds.

Unfortunately the MPC are the nine foolish men ( Cath Mann excepted), they have been totally wrong for three years now, they are accountable to no one and there are a couple of idiots that have been voting not to raise for months now. That against the backdrop of the fact we are in a league of our own with Turkey and Argentina in the incompetence stakes . I think this is a hold at these levels, but redemption may be a long way off until people believe the MPC is prepared to bring down inflation.