Member Info for stewart1964

The buyback appears to be at a quarter of the rate as the pre Merger debacle. At that rate it would take a year to acquire about 18 million pounds worth of shares ( on my calculations) or just over 1% of Market Cap ( 1.6 billion). It might be accretive over a year by about +0.4% on NAV taking the difference between 68/69p against 110p NAV. A bit of a drop in the Ocean. Not that I expect the share price to stay this low for a whole year. However, we are knocking on the door of XD territory, so we could easily be in the 66s come 12th February if it doesn't respond soon. And heck, this has been flat on its back now for 6 weeks, whence the price fell heavily.

Absolutely understand the attraction of getting 20k income off a mere 200k outlay.

Wouldn't fancy risking that much but bought 20ks worth just. Had a good run on Trig today and switched. I actually like this one better, because there is less Equity risk and it's more of a lender. Switching between Trig and GCP works for me with zero stamping.

Bunsenburner..I too am looking at a switch from Gilts to here or Trig. Even though yields on the 10 year have risen from about 4.65% to 4.8% on the 10 year over the past few weeks the capital value has barely changed, 1% at the most once you take into account interest accrued. Meanwhile the rise in Gilts has slaughtered capital values by over 10% on Bond Proxies. It's just a question of the chart and a falling knife just now as opposed to fundamentals.

I doubt it this time, just pointing out how low caputulations can go. But the backdrop of Bond yields just now is the worst this century. A whole percentage above Truss levels.

Sorry for all the typos on a mobile.

I think not Bind yields ar cataclysmic levels...5.8% on the 30 year, 4.7% on the 10. Good job Reeves's leftist Oxbridge mates on the MSM and BBC are msnaging the news, the Truss crisis was a walj in the park by comparison. And renember this sunk to neatly 60p a couple of years ago.

Not withstanding the 3p trim on NAV shocker, I am still surprised this is stuck in the doldrums at circa 71p. Every indication is that interest rates are coming down aggressively, and the NAV fall is only what we have seen at Trig and UKW ( where prices have gonevinto orbit recently.

Take today , nearly every transaction is a buy, GCP are buying their own shares; yet there is clearly a counterparty aggressively selling to meet the retail buy demand, otherwise the price would be firming quickly.

Repost...low gearing of 11%, UKW 30%. That matters in a high interest rate environment. Market is pricing Trig like an indebted basket case in the mould of a Saga or Regional Reit, when it is far from it.

The one advantage Trig has is low g

Juggling figures, 9.2% doubles in just 8 years assuming no increase to dividend and sp doesn't fall further. Worst case scenario is that this is a basket case that is paying dividend entirely from nav, in which case dividend would last 16 years and pay out 120p. That's still a return of 2.25% so long as dividendscweren't reinvested. ie there is a return yo be had with zero earning forever from the massive nav premium.

I get 9.2% off an 83.5p bid... compounding out 1.8675% quarterly comes to 7.68%....

7.68x100/83.5= 9.2?

"Comprehensible" not comprehendable, I really need an edit facility.

I doubt the land has much value at all, assuming it is owned and not leased, and some of the windfarms are offshore. Depreciation isn't often covered, but I gather solar panels have a lifespan of 40 years and turbines about 35. I seem to remember that NAV was upgraded not so long back on the basis that they had underestimated the lifespan of a turbine. Meanwhile, the main driver in the ongoing fall of NAV appears to be electricity prices and stubbornly high interest rates and not deprecation. Tbh I don't think it's a fully comprehendable enterprise, hence the differing opinion between a NAV faur value of 121p and the Market opinion of 88p. I'm just putting my faith in the integrity of the official nav and the fact the current 8.5% yield is sustainable. But I could be wrong and the Market knows better.

RJ Engineer..yep agree 20 million profit to book doesn't make a huge difference on 3 billion of assets...less than 1%. Just showing my frustration at the nav revisions. Really hoping we have got to the end of those, otherwise we aren't getting a recovery in share price.

I've dug back into the accounts and the 210 million of disposals were over a 12 month period and so I can make some sense of it now. Opening valuation at June 23 was 3671 million, disposals were 210 million, making inadusted value 3461 million, but came in at 3358 million, a loss of 3%. Meanwhile NAV fell 7%, but there may have been acquisitions in there that made the loss greater on assets than the 3%. Debt had meanwhile fallen 77million over the 12 months to June.

OK about the not understanding H1 2024 accounts bit. Can anyone help me out? It's the balance sheet, there is 200 plus million of disposals at a premium to NAV. The portfolio has gone down in those 6 months from 3509m to 3358m. Hang on if 200m has been disposed of the valuation has gone up ( 3358m + approx. 200m is 3558m). Contra debt or cash account you might ask, no debt has improved just 30m, cash has actually gone down. So where has this 200m gone to, unless the disposals are still within the closing portfolio valuation and not completed. That would make sense.

Doesn't feel like we will get any redemption from these all time lows until we have notification of the 2025 dividend, it has to be raised ( as it has been for 7 consecutive years) otherwise, even a frozen dividend, would be seen as Trig having difficulties. My chief worry is the continual downgrading of NAV, with electricity prices on the rise and interest rates falling I think they are running out of excuses in that regard. I also can't understand how you can have 200 million of disposals at an 11% premium to NAV and that not at the very least arrest the fall in NAV. I have tried to make sense of the accounts, and tbh I'm struggling.

Spindok, favourable tax and low interest rates have artificially inflated house prices. Trying to inflate supply and depress prices is a bit of a sledge hammer to crack a nut. Personally with about 25% of our Equity tied up in sn unmortgaged house, I'd live to see my house crash in value. Trouble is the majorit of the population see their home as an investment not someonevto live, and wie betide a Government that doesn't prop up prices.

There's no reason for yields to be twice the Bond yield unless there is a debt problem or the portfolio is garbage, such as office and retail rentals. Neither apply to Trig. It just doesn't make mathematical sense. The main problem with Trig is the steady fall in NAV. There is only so long the Market will put up with excuses for Outages, Power Prices and Gilt yield, leaving NAV adjusted earnings at zero. Nevertheless I am fairly optimistic this nibbling into NAV can't carry on forever and I still see it as a Buy.