Member Info for steward1

Seems that you're certainly touched with something to be posting with such veracity and apparently no direct interest in TCG!
If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then.....

Hey Buck,
You really are having to work harder today! I don't know where you get the perseverence and tenacity from especially when you've admitted that you don't have any direct financial interest in TCG!
I'm impressed!

Careful Buck - you might be giving holders some ammunition. 5% of a future new TCG!!! What might that equate to in a few years time (after all, investing is about future value) - a company achieving £10 billion of sales (or more), let's say a conservative £500m profit at a P/E of 10. That's 5% of £5b and I make that £250m - which happens to be over 2.5 times the current market cap!! Sounds like an investment to me!!!

Significant dilution does not equal being wiped out plus you can add into the mix whatever terms holders get for the recapitalisation... even less a wipe out situation. Placing a value on that just now is nigh impossible. What is clear though is that, after this morning's RNS, the market doesn't see the price as 1-2p. In fact, given the current market cap, the market is suggesting that Fosun's deal isn't anywhere near a done deal!

Buck - I'm missing the part in the RNS where it says that shareholders are being wiped out. I'm seeing this statement however - "The Board continues to proceed on the basis that a recapitalisation, achieved with the support of shareholders, is the preferred means of securing the future of the Group for all its stakeholders"

Buck - undoubtedly, the signs aren't good for shareholders but I was led to believe that once these deals are proposed, they're usually very quick to implement. Clearly, that's not happening in this case and it seems that no-one is legally committed to it yet - sounds like there's still a long way to go. I'd also suggest that it's important to note a couple of things from the RNS. 1) It says that shareholders interests will be DILUTED - it doesn't say that they'll be wiped out (and if it was their intention to wipe shareholders interests out then they would be obliged to state that now). 2) the 75/25 are approximations. Should the deal go ahead then there's a question of what % shareholders get and what terms will existing shareholders get to participate in the recapitalisation. I'll repeat, undoubtedly, it's not going the way that shareholders would want but it's not all lost yet.

I don't think that the RNS substantially changes anything for shareholders. The risk of being wiped out was previously there. The RNS does show the complexity of the deal and points to the value that Fosun place on it though - after all, they seem to be ok with forking out another £150m! And it appears that they're so unhappy with how things have been going that they're insisting that TCG pay some of their costs. Big question for shareholders is whether there is going to be a white knight... over to NK & co.

Good find, Balmus!

My question is what is the reason for the cold feet. I think Fosun had thought that they had engineered a clear run to get tcg on the cheap... it's not looking that way now with other parties taking a position and, possibly, disrupting their plans. The Fosun's CEO's clearly signal a change - it's very significant that they are also signalling that it wasn't their idea.
Next question is what are Fosun going to do next and what are NK and the Russians up to!
The TCG CEO must be feeling that he's being hung out to dry a little... time for a change!

Fascinating business this is... it seems Fosun are having second thoughts now. Is that based on the business case getting worse or a realisation that others are interested and they'll have to up the price and/or re-shape the deal or is it all of the above?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Nikkei-Markets/Fosun-Tourism-sees-much-difficulty-in-Thomas-Cook-acquisition
Looks like Fankhauser's coat could be on a shaky nail (as they say in these parts) if things collapse with Fosun. This article suggests that Fankhauser has gone to Fosun with the initial proposal rather than Fosun approaching TCG. It's getting even murkier!!
Personally, I think that it's still all to play for. If Fosun aren't going to take part in the restructuring, are they simply going to write off their holding or are they looking to sell it?

Hey Amers - I agree that, for holders, there's nothing changed and no need to panic. The extra £150m has been confirmed for headroom (that does seem a vague reason!) and the deal has been put back to October. It does seem that the Fosun deal isn't going as smoothly as some would suggest!
What is still unknown is the intention of those big holders. I doubt very much that Fosun would want any mention of them in this RNS so I'm expecting some news later this week stating what their intentions are... these guys wouldn't take a bite of TCG without having the appetite for the whole.

So GR is now saying that RHA will be delayed and that it's going to cost more!!

GR's incompetence strikes again!!!

Interesting point, jed. Because the RNS lacked the detail, I thought that it was a bit premature and, perhaps, some parties who are interested in the Nordic business and airline might take it as a signal to up their bids.
Wishful thinking, perhaps - once the lenders see an opportunity to take control, the outcome is usually not good for shareholders but it's not over until it's over!

Yep, getinthere, that would seem to be the best approach.

Getinthere - I think that the big question is what would the market valuation be after the restructuring has happened. With a much reduced debt pile and less of an interest bill (and making a profit... perhaps, a healthy profit?) then one might expect the Market Cap to be significantly higher than £83m! Roll forward a few years (post this Brexit debacle) and there could be a higher market cap still.
I'm certainly not suggesting that this is a buy but Fosun certainly see a future in TCG and are prepared to bet £750m on it. I have a very, very small holding here, not worth selling and, perhaps, the best opportunity here is if holders get the option to take part in the restructuring at the same price as the lenders and Fosun.

Jessell - clearly you're a better man than I. I bow to your superiority - well done on TCG. I did only post once though- not quite cheerleading.

Well Colby, sorry to state the obvious but Prem is giving them a loan presumably because they need the cash.., and they'll need to sell those shares to get the cash. If they don't need a loan then you can be even more suspicious about the nature of this deal.

Hey Jessell - sorry to upset your desperate attempts to get the cheerleading going!

Prem is still on my radar - at some stage in the future, GR will not be running Prem and, if it's still a public company, I might invest again.

Colby - have you read the RNS? Here's how Prem's part of the loan is being provided -
"Premier will provide the remaining US$1 million (as Lender) in the form of 1,763,668,430 new ordinary Premier Shares conditionally issued to the equivalent value of US$1,000,000 at an issue price of 0.045p, being the Premier closing share price on 5 July 2019 ("Loan Shares"). The Loan Shares will be subject to an orderly market agreement such that they may subsequently only be sold by MNH through the Company's broker to ensure an orderly market is maintained. "

Charlie,
I'm sitting on the sidelines watching on, having sold out over a month ago, but just have to say that this latest RNS beggars belief... yet again!
GR is not providing a loan here, he is selling a good chunk of PREM off to his mates and taking payment in instalments, imho! It is all very, very shady.
A highly unusual move, wouldn't you agree, especially when PREM's assets need cash?