Member Info for Stevo12

Need to focus on free float of 4.3 billion as opposed to total shares in issue. On 1 October 2021 the selling restrictions lift on another 8.5b shares which I fear will impact price as former EIG investors seek to sell.

Accordingly, I believe their will be a golden window to exit between middle of August and middle of September. The creditor shares will have cleared, the dividend announced, the interim results published and hopefully FTSE 100 entry confirmed which will drive tracker funds purchases.

In the meantime we need to embrace the volatility which has not really started yet.

Bubble there is a complicated mathematical formula to work out market cap which experts have termed multiplication.

The number of shares in issue is a very tightly held secret, but if you promise not to tell anyone there are 18.5 billion in issue.

Now I have used the super computer and inserted the two parameters (share price and number of shares) and thanks to the magic of multiplication the answer is £3.7b. That is 370 billion 1 penny chews.

Sorry having a bad morning

Also I do not seem to have paid for 0.314 additional shares

Same for me but still waiting for cash element.

Thanks no fear. Slowly, slowly catch a monkey. It may still seem a long way off but the creditor shares will clear.

Jenni

Does you 64.4p include accrued interest on retail bonds.

More than likely Rocky.

Ovets

You are right and I am sure HBR will invest in multiple projects. North Sea will absorb $1 billion per year for next several years to maintain 200k bpd production. This will leave another €1b ish for dividends and other investments.

Sealion phase 1 would cost harbour approx $300m per year, without creditor or uKEF support. Accordingly would probably absorb 50% of post dividend free cash flow. If they also buy producing assets from likes of BP, Shell etc they would,be able to immediately access RBLs. So you are right they will have capacity to run 2 or possibly 3 large projects outside of North Sea.

Let’s hope FIG do everything they can to make Sealion compelling. Tax in Norway and Mexico can exceed 80% at higher oil prices.

SK

What did you expect. There are 3.3 billion creditor shares to flush through before we have a stable investor base.

This is going to take several weeks and with this volume of selling the share price is going to be range bound. I was hoping for bounces between 20 and 30p, but range might be tighter - possibly oscillating between 20-25p. Let’s give it a couple of weeks to settle down, the fundamentals have not changed.

SK

PMO’s failure was principally down to unsustainable debt levels on the back of failed Solan project combined with failure to sufficiently hedge Oil and gas prices in late 2019. Lack of ESG credentials and growing green sentiment had little to do with PMO’s demise.

I hear what you are saying about buying end of life producing assets. However my greater concern would be a management team who are not experienced in the renewable sector trying to transition away from a business that they understand, namely fossil fuels.

The last couple of years have been a great run for renewable investments and I have recently exited most of my renewable investments as prices are approaching bubble territory. A lot of people are going to get badly burned investing in the green agenda.

There will continue to be a significant demand for oil and gas for next 3 decades, although a declining percentage of overall global energy mix. A smart operator in fossil fuels (particularly gas) can do really well, while reducing carbon footprint.

The moment I hear that Harbour are investing in Renewables I will hit the door. However I do like that they will be using old wells for carbon capture.

Surfit

Super majors have all announced disposal programmes. BP alone is looking to raise $35b by 2025 in asset sales. some of these will have characteristics Harbour are looking for. In fact Linda Cook confirmed on last weeks webcast that they already have a number of inorganic opportunities they will be looking at.

Harbour have demonstrated their preference to buy producing assets and while Sealion is oven ready, it is still 3.5-4 years from FID before first cash flow. The deals they have done to date have paid back the entire purchase price in less time than it will take to get to first oil at Sealion. They got stung in their last development project (Solan), although they left most of the problem with PMO.

I truly hope they go for Sealion and we will get a very strong indication from Harbour when they publish their interim financial statements. If they write of the investment in Sealion as part of the fair value acquisition accounting, we will know their intent.

Agree with Cyan. Any third party interested in FI could have picked up 30% of a proven Sealion (on which pmo and rkh have spent over €1b to date) for no or little cost. Why spend €1b exploring and appraising Rhea and taking though to FID when it’s free next door.

You could probably take out RKH for £100m or 25p per share if arbitration is not successful and price drops back.

Although Harbour have indicated they will take their time and not make a decision until 2022, the quirks of reverse takeover accounting requires that Harbour assign a fair value to Sealion as of 1 April 2021. If they are unlikely to progress Sealion, they will write down the capitalised costs of Sealion as reported by PMO in its last financial statements. If they are more likely than not to develop Sealion, they will retain the costs incurred to date on Sealion Phase 1 as an asset in new balance sheet.

Accordingly we will get a strong indication when Harbour publish their interim financial statements in August 2021.

Thanks no fear.

That is a high volume of late unknown trades with several of 2.5m tranches of shares moving after hours.

I do not think the shares will go below 20p for any period of time. However as share price rises it will get heavily sold into by the creditor share holders. Accordingly do not expect a sustainable rise for next few months.

What we do not know is how many creditor shares are being sold to institutions off market. Hopefully lots.

Appreciate you are carrying scars from PMO days, but Harbour share price is not going to rise in a straight line and market needs to be able to digest current free float of 4.3 billion shares, compared to under 1b for PMO, before we see better value for shares.

Free float is 23% or 4.3b shares.

I am expecting cash of 60p per each £1 of nominal value of retail bonds.

If I am reading it correctly I have received about 70% of the top up shares I applied for. I have not received any confirmation but shares are in my account.

Ovets

There is no way Linda Cook is going to sit in the back of old airplane with a bunch of squaddies and 6 months supplies of chocolate hobnobs for islanders. What is she going to see when she gets there? Sail out to Sealion where someone will point out that 400m below the surface there is a lot of oil. All the info she needs is in PMO’s Aberdeen office. The only possible reason to go there would be to talk to FIG and she can do that via Zoom. If she eventually does visit FI it will be via a private jet.

I am hoping she is playing it cool to get a better deal out of FIG. However do not underestimate the number of opportunities to buy producing assets around the world. It is not just the NS that the majors are selling out of.

HL finally sorted both shares and retail bonds out. I have not got cash yet for retail bond conversion, but they have allocated the creditor share top ups. Really surprised and pleased that creditor top up shares only cost 7.2p per share. Did anyone else apply for creditor top up shares and I would be interested in how many shares they were allocated.

Agreed no fear. Although it was expected that all the shorts would close this week, it is still good to see. While shorts were initially a technical hedge against debts and latterly creditor pre-selling, they still both confused investors ( particularly on this BB) and presented PMO in a negative light.

However we are no out of the woods yet. 170m shorts closed, but 3 billion creditor shares to be sold. Hopefully many will move to equity funds in off market transactions.