Member Info for Stevo12

Reasons for difference between lundin,/ Aker BP and Harbour share price:

1. We don’t pay a dividend yet.
2. We have 3 billion shares held by distressed debt investors who want to sell and have been selling in advance of merger completion via shorts
3. We have not yet published a set of consolidated results proving the revenue and profitability of new group

We also have advantages such as lower UK tax rates than Norway and Sweden and also benefit of Pmo tax losses.

The good news is that the three big factors holding back harbour share price relative to peers will all fall away by Q3.

New company not launched yet Blade! What has held this share back over last couple of weeks us the size of the pre-selling of creditor shares via shorts. Increase again last week and how over 172m shares shorted. While I predicted the shorts will largely close by end of this week or early next, we will still have downward price pressure with creditor shares sold into every rise until majority of shares held by equity funds. Need to prepare for and exploit volatility until underlying value is unlocked in Q3.

Godders

Facts re OM. The case has not yet closed but arbitrators had confirmed that case should close in early 2021, unless they have further questions. Once notification is given that case has closed, there is then up to 120 days to finalise award.

We have not yet won. My personal take is that it is looking good to get a positive result but the range of settlements could be huge. RKH is claiming $29m for reimbursement of costs and 0ver $200m of lost profit. Lots of assumptions in lost profits calculations (oil price, oil volumes, operating costs etc) and accordingly the settlement could have a very broad range. The recent increase in oil price will be a big help.

I beg to differ. The existing ordinary shares are being delisted and Readmitted on 1April along with new shares.

Have a go at trying to buy pmo shares tomorrow morning!

Kraken.

PMO shares ARE suspended for 2 days and you will not be able to buy or sell PMO on Monday or Tuesday. I have no idea where you get you information from! The reason we have got 5% as opposed to 5.5% is a sort of good thing. The debt holders have opted for more shares rather than cash and while we have a smaller % of the Group, Harbour now has $175m more cash.

The one factor that will influence the share price in the short term (other than oil price) is how many and how quickly the creditors sell their 3 billion+ shares.

Talos and Premier have notified the Mexican energy ministry that they have been unable to agree unitisation (split of shared oil field) with Pemex re Zama. accordingly it is now up to the Mexican ministry to decide on split. I wonder who they will favour - their own state owned oil company or a bunch of money grabbing gringos looking to pillage their country’s assets.

Fortunately the ministry’s decision is not mandatory and Talos can refer for international arbitration. The bad news is that this could take 12-18 months if it goes to arbitration. Hopefully this makes Sealion and the Falklands more appealing than Mexico. I would love to see Falklands Oil developed and give the Islanders true independence. Many soldiers and sailors lost their lives for the independence of the Falklands.

Citizen

Talos confirmed today that they were not able to reach agreement on unitisation with Pemex. Accordingly it is going to the Mexican energy ministry to decide. I wonder who’s side they will be on - the state owned energy company or a bunch of Gringos. There decision is not binding and Talos can apply for international arbitration if they don’t like the conclusions. Pemex is pushing for 50% of combined fields.

I think this is good news for Sealion as this could go on for another couple of years if Talos do not agree with Mexican energy ministry decision . Feeling a little more positive on Sealion tonight.

Until case is declare closed it is a guess. Once case is declared closed, the judgement is issued within 120 days.

The arbitrator stated the.case would be declared closed in Early 2021 unless further questions. I recall that someone on the BB askedSam who informed them that he had not received any further questions.

Sorry. I meant to add that I fully agree with your view of long term underlying value of Harbour and I absolutely believe the shares will be north of 40p by Q3 even if oil stays at or around $60pb. My hypothesis us that there is going to be a short term disconnect between price and value driven by the need to clear the creditor share overhang.

My goal is to hold my equity position for 12-18 months and trade the volatility in April / May.

Pearls

I beg to differ. The debt holders as you state will receive 3 billion plus shares on Monday and it is these creditor shares which will create the overhang. They will be selling them as quickly as they can. These 3 billion shares will need to move from the debt holders to institutional long term investors before trading stabilises. Many of the debt holders are dedicated investors in distressed debt and they will no want to or be allowed to hold equity, other than fir a short period. There will be lots of off market matchmaking going on at the moment to try and place these shares with institutional holders.

There is no agreement with Shorts in the prospectus ( I think you are getting confused with warrants and debt for equity conversion) and indeed the shorts have risen from 120m at time prospectus to 170m as of today. The daily reporting of short positions is a requirement of FCA and failure to do so results in multi-million £ fines - Ask ARCM. Movements in shorts are reported each day (although with a small time lag) and are public record. Please take a look and you can see the daily increases over the last few weeks. The last increase was on Wednesday of this week but we will not see Thursday or Fridays movement until next week.

My hypothesis is that the creditor share overhang will create extreme volatility over first couple of months . Let’s carry forward this conversation to end of April and if I am wrong I will acknowledge my incorrect analysis. If I am right, I will be booking my much needed summer vacation.

Reminds me of the old days when I was being chased around the office by horny traders looking for a quick grope. Did not like it then, but miss it now. I’ll ask hubby if he is up for a short squeeze this afternoon but he looks busy cutting the garden.

However if you meant PMO shorts closing - sorry you are going to have to wait until next week. Share moving up with general market sentiment - Even BP up 3%+

Thanks Rocky. So no way to differentiate between normal buy and sells and shorts opening and closing?

This afternoon is the last chance for creditors to pre-sell their shares. The question Is will they settle for today’s price or wait for next week and hope that there is a bounce on Wednesday morning. PMO is currently moving in line with other Oil companies so currently all quiet on Western Front.

The only driver for a big increase this afternoon is a macro event such as a major hike in Oil Price. There will be billions of shares to buy on Wednesday onwards so no Big buyers will step in this afternoon. No shorts will close to drive price.

In my view, the major risk for the rest of day is a downward price movement as a result of more pre-selling of creditor shares.

Rocky.

Serious question. I have been looking at various ways to track shorting activity, both increases and decreases and would be interested to understand how you are seeing PMO shorts being closed. I have tried to look at trading patterns and quantum of buys and sells but really difficult to see whether driven by shorts being opened ( volume of shares being sold) or being closed through share purchase or just normal buying and selling activity.

Would genuinely like to know whether you have another way of tracking short positions other than through the FCA required reporting. Always looking to learn.

Good to hear Rocky - hate to see PI’s getting creamed.

Supporting North Sea investment to reduce UK’s future dependence on imported Oil and Gas and providing financial support for foreign countries to develop their oil and gas are two very different propositions..

There are a backlog of UKEF applications to provide finance for oil projects in Brazil, Africa etc but PMO have not even submitted an application for Sealion. I know we all see Falklands as having a different political and economic imperative but the boat has sailed and with Boris more concerned about hosting COP26 in November, he will not want to damage his green credentials and give the Argies ammo.

Rocky

Sorry to see you are losing money on almost all of your trades. Fingers crossed some of these positions will turn around for you. Keep the faith on PMO/ Harbour but i would recommend taking out a few more long positions when share price hits 22p in April and then going short at 32p. you should be able to rinse and repeat that trade several times over April and May. Volatility might be slightly tighter 24p-30p range - we will see when trading starts in Early April.

I am a LTH by nature and an occasional trader when odds are stacked in my favour. Traded Oil from April lows and will be trading Harbour volatility until 3billion creditor shares flush through.

Krak

I absolutely believe Harbour will be worth at least £7b by Q3 (valuing PMO shareholders’ 5% at £350m minimum).

I also believe there are going to be opportunities to buy in post 1 April at below the current share price unless Oil takes an upwards only trajectory from today. There will likely be a significant disconnect between value and share price during the next 2-3 months as creditors sell their shares. As a PI we are competing in a loaded casino with odds in favour of the institutional investors. There are rare occasions when agility and non-algorithm driven trading can benefit a PI. This time is coming for us over next 2-3 months with Harbour. Buy the dips and sell the highs on what is going to be a stormy ocean and let’s see the little guys making some money for a change

Rocky

Only 24 hour lag which is the time required for large shorts to report their positions. Your YouTube clip is of a trading position several weeks old.

Agree these are only the large shorts but they make up the vast majority of short positions.

Thankfully it will all be irrelevant from Wednesday as shorts will close very quickly. Never want to talk about shorts again unless it is the sexy denim ones I will be wearing this summer. However the downward pressure in share price of 170m short positions will be replaced for a few months by 3 billion creditor shares being sold. Need to hang on tight in April and May, going to be a rollercoaster ride.