RE: 1p must surely be the absolute MINIMUM26 Aug 2025 11:32
at 0.22p (~Β£19.5m mcap) looks completely out of line with where this could head over the next 6β12 months. on a straight sotp today you can already argue for 0.28β0.34p (wce mcap), but the upside if both flagship projects deliver is far bigger.
elizabeth hill: if wce pushes on to a$120mβ150m with a maiden resource and defined processing route, alienβs 30% free-carried stake + 30.5m wce shares adds roughly +0.18β0.24p/share to ufo on look-through. han****: prior study showed npv ~a$146m, irr >130% at 1.25mtpa dso; even a modest 0.2β0.3Γ npv credit for ufoβs 90% stake implies ~+0.15β0.23p/share. stack those on a conservative base and youβre staring at 0.5p+.
best-case 12-month price (my view): ~0.8β1.0p. assumptions: wce re-rates to a$140β160m on eh resource + processing clarity; han**** lands a jv/offtake with the market crediting 0.25β0.3Γ npv; commodities broadly supportive; and no material dilution beyond working capital. if these legs land, the current 0.22p looks like a gift.