Member Info for SteveJones999

Yep that was the worry the other day, less so now.

Need a lower than expected or at worse, in line, CPI print tomorrow, else 10yr will rise, and we all know what that means

Oooops- PPI today, CPI tomorrow :-).

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Depends on cpi data released later today in the USA

I did say before the US numbers were released at 13:30 in the US yesterday that wage growth data was the most important- glad to see the analysts are now catching up and reporting this hehe.

Lower than expected wage growth generally means lower cost of production/supply of a lot of goods which means less inflation which means less chance of rate hike as all the fed care about is inflation - this is why I keep saying “inflation, inflation, inflation…”

SteveJones999

Posts: 1,876

Price: 79.10

No Opinion

RE: SP6 Oct 2023 13:28

It's all linked, the FED went to hit their inflation.

A miss on wage growth is more important to gold than NFP.

Not good news alas- data so far points to US doing better than expected, again (plus re adjusted last month up too), which means inflation concern monthly marker for FED, which points to continued hawkish stance on rates.

Wage growth not too high though.

It's all linked, the FED went to hit their inflation.

A miss on wage growth is more important to gold than NFP.

Waiting for US data starting 13:30UK Time.

https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Yep, inflation, inflation, inflation.

Needs economic indicators point to a less like raise by fed and more likely drop - or an RNS with positive news

The slight fly in the ointment so to speak, is it was their first hedge, which may have alarm bells to a few, that they are sailing very close to the wind finance wise and couldn't risk and cope with a big drop in gold... (somewhere well below the 1900 I mean).

Yes this was case early days of initial jump on inflation- then fed stepped in and the the rest of world followed in raising rates… a lot - to tame inflation despite it not being a normal reason for inflation- this is where all the debate has been.

So you could say yes, it’s inflation driven as the response is to whack up interest rates to resolve, and they have higher than expected and could go further (hope not). However, what’s been odd, is inflation far stockier than expected and the US economy and U.K. and others been far more resilient so far, so rates kept going up!

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-sector-eyes-recovery-september-production-picks-up-ism-2023-10-02/

Another marker that didn't help today...

All of these keep the stickiness for a lower fast rate cut- it's a fine balance, but another indictor leading to the FED keeping the next decision in the balance.

Thanks Mr T :-)

Mr T- so why have most PMs got whacked?

There is no doubt that inflation has has a massive impact- I recall a couple of years ago Vitaly at Poly mentioned the issue on it's way and immediately he said his SP got whacked (and he was criticised for saying this) but was clearly right. If I made a product and the price I could sell the product at was lower than it was 3 years and my costs had gone up due to inflation, then why would I expect my company to worth more?

Most PMs have suffered a similar fate alas.

There are a variety of estimates on what the new level will be and less money spent when waste overspill done.

It's interesting that the "pro" CEY brigade raved about the recent presentation from Jerrard, but it didn't confirm what we need eg when will the clearance end and what till the drop in AISC be?

This is visible in the presentations, sort of, and takes some delving and approximations, but these are out of date.

Equally, how much was the hedge on gold and when does it expire? Can you help?

I can't find this info and it's missing from my self developed s/sheet on CEY.

Their website still says no gold hedge, so needs updating:

https://www.centamin.com/investors/principal-risks-and-uncertainties/

It says here no hedge...

Gold price remains key- many of of the costs for mining have inflated massively more than than the price of the cey product, gold.

Yes, there’s the additional cost of the waste stripping and varying estimates of when this cease and what level will be the new norm- but if the product price they deliver (gold) doesn’t rise and/or some of the costs over and above the reduced waste stripping don’t deflate (rather than just inflate at a low level), the cey and other PMs will continue to struggle.

Gold is worth less so you’d have been better off with cash , which, of course has fallen in value since then due to inflation.

I'd never have predicted the US 10 year a couple of years ago to be at this level- why buy gold... this will, of course, change at some point!

Yep they keep stockpiling and yet the price is still below it was 3 years ago.... real terms with inflation factored in, gold has been a poor investment in last 3 years.

You can make money on trading this stock- but you have to trade it- I work on my strict rules on S/L and T/P, but sometimes let the T/P run over and this is sometimes a mistake.

I don't make all the time, for example, I got it wrong the other day and lost 1% which is a fair slug to some, eg I traded £88k that day.

I so not trade randomly, but around key data points and markers.

This represents a very small part of my overall investments, as I've said before- balance is key, and PMs are my second highest risk next to crypto.

I see PMs as a very high risk, but with every high risk there is, of course, very high reward.

Everyone has there own investment demands and strategies, and I wish ALL good luck with however they invest. It makes the world go round.

Have a good weekend and GLA.

And add Mr T- with your attitude, I'm gobsmacked that you have held all these years.

My attitude to this share Mr T? Have not read any of my comments over past few years?

I'm a TRADER!

I go in and out a lot.

So, had you had my attitude to this share, you wouldn't have been out a long time ago, you'd have been in and out multiple times over and still doing so.