Member Info for Steve4077

>> As far as I am concerned a Decision to Mine is presenting an verifiable model of an economical possibility of a mine

Yes, that is my understanding too. Its a specific term used in the Valmin code, which in turn is used for valuation purposes in the buyback agreement.

>> I much prefer ‘economically recoverable’ to ‘decision to mine’.

Under the Valmin code they are effectively the same thing, which is why that is a key phrase in the buyback agreement.

The difference in this case was the date estimation was in an RNS, not an interview.

You need to be invited, but I can't post an invite on here - last time I tried I was banned :)

You may be able to find an invite on Twitter somewhere. The Telegram channel is good though, especially as it is a lot easier to post pictures, documents, etc. so you tend to see more research.

>> The RNS wasn't clear to me whether the cores had been sent to be assayed.

I think they probably have been assayed because of the 'traces of copper' comment, but I agree it isn't clear.

"In addition to the Ascot drilling, two exploration drill holes, FTDD-22-001 and 002 completed at the Footrot prospect, about 7km south-southeast of Racecourse, intersected lengthy intervals of alteration and iron sulphide mineralisation along with traces of copper and possible gold indicator minerals. This could suggest proximity to a mineralised porphyry - further modelling of the geophysical results here will be required."

>> if we were 'short' and couldn't get a decent price for Bushranger, then I'm convinced CB would have ordered more drilling and done a raise if necessary.

Yes, completely agree. Its hard to find a scenario where CB is highlighting the release of MREs, creation of models and a decision to mine (while also holding off on more drilling) if the 'mine' wasn't economic - especially as there is income available to do drilling where necessary.

The only scenario I can think of is that CB doesn't want to make it too attractive to AA. It may be that XTR is looking for a 'no' from AA before conducting a phase 3 for infill and testing other geophysics targets before going to the wider market. That seems unlikely, but possible.

BTW if you really were a CEO working on large scale M&A, you should have already known everything that I had to explain to you in this thread :)

You were suggesting that negotiations couldn't happen without an RNS. I was pointing out that they can and providing an example. As always, you will find a reason to be negative about it.

And I wasn't a CEO - I wasn't even leader of the team in the example case, so not sure where you got that idea from if you 'heard this story before'.

>> Okay, so based on what you've stated; information of a material nature, possibly disusing a valuations in the billions of dollars, would be passed onto AA for them to peruse at their leisure. All before a release if that information to the public and entering into any buy-out negotiations.

I've personally been involved in three multi-billion dollar M&A deal negotiations. In one of those, a large company listed on the NASDAQ was engaged in detailed discussions to buy a FTSE 100 company. I was part of a team of three asked to provide a high level valuation of the target company and to estimate its future profitability. We had access to all the data of the target company and spent several weeks doing the review and interviewing the execs. In the end, the M&A didn't go ahead and no one outside those directly involved knows anything about it. Obviously I wasn't able to divulge anything and I wasn't allowed to trade during that period. There was no RNS for any of this and no information released to shareholders.

If all that can happen without anyone knowing, then I have no doubt that AA can talk to XTR about buying ProspectOre and shareholders won't be told until the potential deal is ready for release.

According to AIM rules:

"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance."

However...

"an AIM company may delay notifying information under this rule if it is an impending development or a matter in the course of negotiation provided such information is kept confidential. The AIM company must ensure it has in place, in accordance with rule 31, effective procedures and controls designed to ensure the confidentiality of such information to minimise the risk of a leak."

Anyone involved in negotiations, or anyone with 'material' information not available to the market, would be subject to a blackout order that prevents them trading. I have been under such a blackout order many times.

>> I was under the impression that ProspectOre is an Australian subsidiary of XTR , with the asset being the project not the company

XTR bought ProspectOre in 2020, along with the licences. The original buyback agreement was in 2017 between AA and ProspectOre and we inherited that along with ProspectOre. If we sell, it makes sense to sell the company that owns everything (ProspectOre) rather than the individual assets.

Is that actually true? If a UK-listed company transfers ownership of an Australian asset (ProspectOre) to another UK-listed company (for example), why would they pay tax in Australia?

Not saying that paying tax in UK is any better btw :) but I would hope a very good legal firm would be involved in minimizing any tax liability.

Buyout price, and timing of models, etc., is going to be strongly affected by the price of copper. If that starts moving back up in the short term, I suspect the process will accelerate. Otherwise, patience needed.

If copper goes back to earlier highs then 20p would be disappointing. If it hangs around this level for a while, then probably happy with 20p.

>> Or you could instead ask yourself why the SP is so appallingly low and always retraces after good news, even though we are supposedly on the cusp of greatness

Assuming you want an actual answer, lets look at this week as an example. Friday close was 3.425p. Volume each day was (screenshots on Telegram):

Mon 480k volume, with 210k sells.
Tue 350k volume with mostly sells
Wed 175k volume, with 100k sells.
Thu 425k with 255k sells.
Today (so far) is 80k all buys.

So in total since Monday open, we have 1.5m volume in total with less than 900k sells. Selling is therefore 0.1% of shares in a week, or about 1 share in every 1000 shares sold. Share price is currently 3.25p, so over that period we have a drop of almost 10%.

So is it mismanagement by CB that caused the share price to drop 10% in a week (due to people holding on to 99.9% of shares?) Or is it simply MMs taking advantage of minimal volume to push down the price - like they do all the time?

Maybe take a look at actual trading before assuming there is a lack of faith in the company rather than MMs playing games.

Also, bearing in mind that Colin has 14m shares and 32m options, including options at 10p, we can probably draw a couple of conclusions:

1) His lack of 'ramping' (interviews, constant RNS) suggests that current share price is irrelevant from the perspective of the medium-term health of the company. Unlike almost all other small-cap explorers, the drifting share price doesn't impact our ability to raise capital. In 2021 we saw a lot of that behaviour prior to raises. However, this year's June report and last years both stated no reason to raise over the following 12 months.

2) If there was any concern about the economic modelling, we would be engaged in a phase 3 drilling of Racecourse and Ascot. I guarantee if had 46m shares, income from Manica and concerns about selling racecourse, drills would already be in the ground.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled complaining and moaning about he company...

>> just compare xtr to 20 other little companies trying to do the same copper porphyry thing. This mob are laughable compared to what you can buy for half as much. Nothing personal, just business.

If there is nothing special about XTR, why is this the only board you keep commenting on apart from SOLG? :)

If there is no volume (just 480k yesterday, with 270k buys), then investors plainly haven't gone anywhere - they are holding on to their shares. What we need are new investors and that is likely to follow news on Fairbride, the Racecourse and Ascot MREs and the mine model.

Red just means below the mid-point, it doesn't mean sell. Based on level 2, everything after 9.45am at 3.407p or higher is a buy.

I think just giving my wife away for free would generate a lot of extra cash for investing :)

I monitor level 2 every day and usually provide a summary on telegram at close (with L2 screenshot). The share price often falls on days with more buying than selling or roughly breakeven. As long as the MMs can get relatively even buys and sells over time and the volume is minimal, they can move the share price around to generate activity (which is how they make money). Given how quickly it spikes when volume increases, It could go up rapidly once news starts to flow.

Of course, if you are buying, its a great share price :)