Member Info for Steve4077

I agree preliminary talks with AA is a possibility, but it could also be Colin holding off on any announcements until market conditions improve (which, touch wood, they seem to be doing at the moment).

Also agree that Africa news would be welcome, although it was 3 months before we got the Q2 update and its only 6 weeks since the end of Q3. XTR could be potentially lining up a series of good news RNS as a precursor to negotiations, although our past comms strategy has been a little inconsistent.

>> Would XTR have to announce an RNS had they entered talks/shown data to AA?

Not according to AIM regulations:
https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/AIM%20Rules%20for%20Companies%20%2801012021%29_1.pdf

Section 11:
"An AIM company must issue notification without delay of any new developments which are not public knowledge which, if made public, would be likely to lead to a significant movement in the price of its AIM securities. By way of example, this may include matters concerning a change in:
— its financial condition;
— its sphere of activity;
— the performance of its business; or
— its expectation of its performance."

However, there is the following exception to the above:

" Unless disclosure is required under Article 17 of MAR, an AIM company may delay notifying information under this rule if it is an impending development or a matter in the course of negotiation provided such information is kept confidential. The AIM company must ensure it has in place, in accordance with rule 31, effective procedures and controls designed to ensure the confidentiality of such information to minimise the risk of a leak.

In such circumstances, where an AIM company is able to delay notifying information about impending developments or matters in the course of negotiation it may give such information in confidence to the following category of recipient:
(i) the AIM company’s advisers and advisers of any other persons involved or who may be involved in the development or matter in question;
(ii) persons with whom the AIM company is negotiating, or intends to negotiate, any commercial, financial or investment transaction (including prospective underwriters or places of its securities);
(iii) representatives of its employees or trades unions acting on their behalf;
(iv) any government department, the Bank of England, the Competition Commission or any other statutory or regulatory body or authority; and
(v) the AIM company’s lenders."

From the study RNS:

"When the results of the Phase One and Phase Two drilling programmes are incorporated into the Racecourse mineralisation model, Xtract expects that the Inferred Resource will increase significantly in size, which will have a strongly positive effect on the overall economics of a mining operation at Racecourse."

Also that was based on the only the original JORC, so some of the 'dead rock' that would have been recovered in that original study now includes copper, which changes the economics and means a lower copper price required.

Close on Friday was $8780 ($3.92 lb)

https://www.ifcm.co.uk/market-data/commodities-prices/copper

I think everyone that has done their research is already invested. With no news for now, there is nothing to spark new investors, so the share price drifts down down on minimal volume. While it might have fallen to 3p-ish, the number of shares actually sold in recent weeks is only a small percentage of the total held. The MMs try to generate activity (which is how they make money) by moving the price around - usually down - far more than the trading activity would suggest.

Once news drops and sparks wider interest (assuming it is generally in line with expectations), the price is likely to move up rapidly, which is to the advantage of those already invested. Currently, its a test of patience and faith in your own research.

I don't think that is an unreasonable interpretation. Although if there is any standardization to incentives, it could also just be based on a certain amount above current share price. I'll check the price when the 10ps were awarded.

>> he lives in Dubai

I think Colin lives in Portugal. He has Dubai residency for tax purposes, but you only have to visit every six months to retain that status.

@LittleWing Its human nature to look at the share price and think "what does the market know that I don't"?

However, there are two factors to consider:

1) If you have done your research on the complex story here, it is far more likely that you know something the market doesn't, rather than the reverse. After all, achieving that is exactly how to make money in stocks.

2) The low share price is assumed to be based on lots of selling. That simply isn't true. The volumes are minimal and the share price moves down completely out of proportion to trading activity. See the screenshots I post most days on Telegram. The MMs only make money through trading so they try to stimulate that trading by moving the price around on minimal volume. The vast majority of shares have remained locked up throughout the recent gradual fall.

Also Caravel are going to seek financing to build a mine, rather than sell, so their share price is significantly discounted on the basis it will be a long time to see value.

Just had a quick look at their annual report:

"The Company raised around $4.7M in a ($3.0M) placement and ($1.7M) rights issue to fund drilling, technical studies and project development activities. The Company continued to enjoy strong support from new and existing shareholders demonstrating confidence in the Company’s copper assets and a clear focus on progressing the project towards development"

"A major milestone was the delivery of a Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) and a maiden Ore Reserve Estimate for the
project in July 2022. The Ore Reserve (JORC 2012) is 583.4Mt at 0.24% copper for 1.42Mt contained copper (at 0.10% cut-off)"

99% of potential investors have not heard of XTR. Only a small proportion of those with knowledge of XTR will have done the necessary research and some of those will have become bored and wandering away to the next shiny object.

You are also assuming that the current share price is related to the actual trading. If you monitor the individual trades and MM movements on level 2, you can see that the volume is minimal most days and its not unusual for the MMs take it down even on days with more buying than selling. XTR is in a holding pattern waiting for news with those in the know already taken their positions. The share price will move up once there is volume and that volume will only appear on significant news and a new buzz around the company.

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett

I was at the AGM. Colin stated something to the effect that he wanted AA to say no, so we could go to the wider market, and AA would have 30 days to decide once we stated the 'decision to mine'. I think howezap is remembering one of the 30m video presentations where Colin stated that if he was AA, he would be making an early offer.

If I was being Machiavellian, I might think that Colin didn't want any more drilling on BR at the moment, despite very good indications from the last Ascot surveys and money in the bank, because he wanted to force AA into a decision without the additional information available. Its a little risky, given he might give it away more cheaply than intended, but if he gets past the AA hurdle, then we have complete freedom in 2023 with money from FB and probably rising copper prices. I think that scenario would be my preferred option. I'm happy to be patient and the short-term share price is irrelevant as we don't need finance.

>> Shareholders are entitled to vent their frustration on boards like this

LOL. So your investment is doing badly (from your perspective), so your solution us to try to make other people feel bad about your investment too? Have you considered that complaining about your own investments becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy? People are selling and pushing the share price down because you are constantly telling them to sell? I believe you - because no one would ever make that up :)

Its seems that yourself and several other serial complainers have been invested with CB for many years. Did you suddenly realise recently it was a bad investment, or that CB is apparently misleading you? Did you not notice on the other fifty occasions he was optimistic? Or maybe his optimism is fine when the share price is rising?

The reality is that you have had countless opportunities to buy and sell over those years, when the share price was both high and low. You decided to buy and hold. No one forced those decisions. Blaming CB now after all those years, when you chose to remain invested throughout, is self-delusion. Yes, it can be hard if you feel you made a bad decision, but blaming someone else for your decisions - especially when you have had many, many opportunities to change them - or standing by them and taking responsibility instead, says a lot about someone's character.

BTW I am happy with my decision to be invested here and added quite a lot more in recent weeks. I might be wrong, but if it does turn out to be a bad decision, I am certainly not blaming someone else for it.

And BTW I would be furious if Colin published an economic model or tried to sell right now. Unlike most of the short-attention-span-brigade, I actually have faith in my own decisions and the patience to wait for the right time to sell.

I see we are back to a board full of complainers. If you really are invested (and I seriously doubt it for some), then do you think your investment is best served by constantly denigrating your own investment?

Who exactly are you complaining to? Are you trying to persuade other investors to sell and reduce the share price? Do you actually think the company will change its strategy because you are complaining? Is it simply a childish desire to stamp your feet in public with no regard for consequences?

You made a decision. Even if you think it was wrong, at least be adult enough to take responsibility for your decisions and don't try to blame everyone else. If you think there are better investments out there, then sell here and buy there. If you stay, then you must think this investment at this price is the best place for your money.

Its a shame because this used to be a really good board. Now its just trolls and serial whingers. Telegram is the only place left with actual decent debate.

>> The only reason I keep posting is I know Colin reads the boards and it makes me feel better knowing everytime he misses another deadline he unnecessarily set, I will continually moan and he will likely be reading it.

Yes, I am sure that when Colin is making decisions, he is influenced by the frequency of complaints from a random person on an internet forum.

It's not SOLG that News is talking about but GGP. There was an independent valuation of $60m for a 5% Newcrest option on Havieron. Newcrest declined to take the 5% (in August I think), which meant they thought the independent valuation was too high. I suppose that could be good for us if it means independent valuations don't automatically favour the major involved, but not sure that was using VALMIN code anyway.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GGP/option-for-5-havieron-jv-interest-set-at-us60m-9pannefn7vzy985.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GGP/havieron-joint-venture-update-zf81twol25peprd.html

Incidentally, even at $60m it suggested that the GGP market cap was too high.

>> Steve4077... can I ask... what is your SP target here for your investment and what have you read in the RNSs that makes you conclude that target is reasonable ?

Firstly, its not based just on XTR RNS, because there are other sources of information, such as Empress RNS, copper/gold prices, Chinese copper purchases, the licence applications on the NSW system, recent sales such as Jose Maria and Eva, comparable grade mines such as Cadia, other economic indicators, etc.

Unless there is some form of industrial incident, it seems reasonable to assume that Fairbride will be close to max production by the end of the year. That gives us a pessimistic estimate of around $5-6m income after tax, which is way more than our 1.3m annual burn rate and makes us a profitable exploration company. That in itself puts us in very good shape in the current economic environment and doesn't include other hard rock and alluvials or future growth in MOZ. In effect Fairbride de-risks the company so there is a little apparent long-term downside - apart from some Black Swan event.

On the upside, we have Bushranger. Even with a super-pessimistic view, that is at least 1m tons for Racecourse at 0.3% (same grade as Cadia) and probably more like 1.5m tons. We've also seem some very interesting results at Ascot, including 15 g/t gold intercept and a 1.8% copper intercept that was lined up with the 0.58% from hole 35. I would really like to see more drilling at Ascot, but the fact that Colin is not following that up suggests the team is very confident about what they already have. Otherwise, with income available I can't see a logical reason why they would not drill it.

Next Racecourse is in a perfect location. Its a low-risk jurisdiction, in a known mining district with existing transport, power and housing infrastructure, close to a major port. You couldn't really get a more attractive location for a mine. Its also ideal for open pit, which is the cheapest and easiest extraction method, and we even have confirmation that metallurgy is suitable for 90%+ extraction rates

The main concerns for me are copper price and interest rates, both of which will have a major impact on the NPV calculation, but I think Colin is old enough and wise enough to take that into consideration and conduct a sale when those are more favorable.

So that gets us to NPV for Bushranger. Even at $500m, which is a very pessimistic estimate, we probably sell for $150m, which is multiples of the current market cap. If we have more resource than expected, or gain a premium for the rest of the licence due to potential, or copper price goes back to similar levels to recent months, we are looking at $1b to $2b NPV and getting up to hundreds of millions in sale price.

The current share price could be frustrating if you want to sell now, but why would you? I have patience and confidence in the assets so in summary its hard to see a downside and the upside is anything from very nice to amazing.

Colin is an eternal optimist selling his company. He can say whatever he wants (within reason) in interviews. He cannot provide misleading information in an RNS. Read every word in every RNS and treat interviews as occasionally informative entertainment. Do research on the many external factors affecting the company. Become as informed as you can be about mining in general and the circumstances of XTR in particular. Make decisions based on that knowledge and take responsibility for your own decisions. The constant whining because you didn't do that is simply tedious.

I think ZM is saying that time could be more profitably spent researching the company in which you are invested, than going on a forum, complaining and asking other people to do that work for you. For example, you asked about salaries. Just look at the company finances in the annual report:
https://xtractresources.com/wp-content/uploads/Xtract-AR2021.pdf

If you make investment decisions based on what someone says in an interview or on a forum, rather than doing your own research and reading the RNS in detail, then the consequences of those decisions rest entirely with you. Complaining about it won't change that.