Member Info for Steve4077

Finally back on internet after four days camping in the forest. Will see everyone at AGM tomorrow. I am not going to comment on the usual anti-Colin rhetoric that seems to accompany any SP fall (but never any SP rise). However, I am confident that Colin is going to do whatever is best for shareholders, if for no other reason than he has 46m shares and options of his own.

>> I don't believe the excuses for the delay in the model. .... We have 5 days of opertunity for the model, If we don't get it this week, then what does that mean?

A) CB determined to sabotage investors, including his own 46m shares and options
or
B) CB trying to time release for maximum impact
or
C) Not finished yet.

There is a single MM at 4.4p (CNKS) and tiny trades around that level. A recent 5k share trade was at 4.41p, so it looks like that MM is effectively preventing buying at the moment. Someone will probably need to put in a best price trade to break through.

Yes, sounds like the CEO of AA is laying the groundwork for justifying an acquisition.

The only 'official' info we have on the buyback clause is in the original RNS and the wording is open to interpretation. Now we are getting close, we really need to find out the details at the AGM.

One option could be to announce a JORC with a higher cut-off that doesn't break 2mt, which would comply with market regulations and avoid triggering the buy-back. That gives the market chance to look at the asset, while we are still protected by the buyback, and allows time to do more drilling while we wait for market conditions to improve.

We could use the current copper price to justify a higher cut-off and then lower the cut-off when the copper price increases, allowing us to trigger the buy-back at our convenience. Although probably AA have thought of that ahead of time and specified a cut-off in the buy-back agreement.

>> one could just as easily make the argument that if you had been overly optimistic and unrealistic with expectations provided to investors

Well, if you think that is the case, you should probably sell ahead of the bad news.

>> Not sure he would be holding off on a deal at all if the resource is there, and the SP would not be at 3.5p, people in the know and all that.

If you have an asset you can sell for X now, but probably sell for double that in six months, and you have to sell once you announce you have that asset, what would you do? Say you have it now, or wait a while?

Don't forget that NPV and copper price do not have a linear correlation. Copper price going up 25% could easily double the NPV and therefore the sale price. Personally, I would be extremely annoyed if XTR had 2mt and then announced it now rather than waiting.

kwadoku is Pops1980 and an obsessive stalker of Colin Bird. Presumably he lost money at some point and became unhinged as a result . He haunts the forums for Colin's companies, issuing warning howls at intermittent intervals. Best ignored or reported. He usually gets banned fairly quickly.

Some others disagree, but I think that Colin is holding off from any deal due to economic situation. He stated the other day it was the worst market he can remember, so there seems little point selling a asset of this size during a worldwide recession, high inflation and a depressed copper price. Colin is reacting to events on the ground rather than blindly pressing ahead with a strategy that made sense 6 months ago, but doesn't now.

As we have income now from Manica and time on our hands, then we may as well increase the resource by doing a phase 3. As theiceberg notes in another post, there are some encouraging signs so the 'deal delay' might not be too long.

>> To sell ‘all’ their shares is rather brave though, to be tied into something else and miss out on a getting back in, just to chase the next big thing. Brave, stupid or genius decision?

I post an L2 update at close most days on Telegram and a lot of the down days are low to minimal volume and quite a few actually have more buys than sells or roughly equal. Also, some of the up days are quite low volume too. Given the small volume and number of trades, the share price is obviously sensitive to relatively small trades due to low liquidity.

TCofMC seems like a good poster so I have no doubt he thought it through. However, his plan to 'buy back in' might be tricky if wants a significant number of shares. Once it starts to move on good news, it will probably move quickly and it won't take much volume to push it up. I've considered tactical selling and buying a few times and done it occasionally, but it would be hard to do it for large amounts without a lot of risk involved. I've decided to leave it alone and trust in the long-term benefit. Trying to time the market often ends badly. I think I would describe his strategy as brave but risky :)

BTW I note TCofMC didn't attack XTR - he just sold quietly and then announced it. That also accounts for some of the selling, along with Captain Bob (who has finished now) and Gixxer.

>> Some suggesting we can hold tight and wait until the market environment improves or Copper goes up, but for how long and at what cost. The reference to other projects suggests we may raise at some point to take on the next big thing, which then dilutes any upside at BR. We also know with small caps that most projects shifted out of focus don’t amount to anything

We've drilled 35,000m in 18 months and are planning a phase 3 - that doesn't really look like being 'shifted out of focus'

We also have income from Manica. About a month ago, we had an RNS stating no raise necessary for 12 months.

As for waiting - the real cost would be acting now with the mining sector down massively, rather a waiting a few months. What's the rush? We have income so we can be patient and we have money to drill and improve the resource.

>> With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher

I think that was directed at me, so maybe check my posting history. I have posted many, many times about how comms could be better (and I intend to raise that at the AGM rather than rant about it) and how Colin is a serial optimist (that is just who he is and he won't change).

What winds me on here are what I might call the 'entitled whingers' (and that isn't you Andrew, so sorry you took a little crossfire). They have 'lost money', at least on on paper, and they can't accept it may just be bad luck (the economy) or their own decisions (no one forced them to buy), so we end up with cognitive dissonance - if it isn't bad luck or their own decisions, then that only leaves Colin to blame. Once they arrive at that conclusion, they then contrive any excuse to attack the perceived source of their problems.

Apologies for going back to poker, but that is like a fast-forward version of investing. You can tell the characters of the players by how they react to adversity or bad luck. Some accept it and don't let it affect them. Others blame the dealer, or the cards or the other players. Normally, I don't mind because emotional people who can't take responsibility make bad decisions and I make more money.

However, this isn't poker in one important regard. Its a team sport. As XTR shareholders, we all win or we all lose. So when people continually bash Colin unreasonably because they can't accept they might simply be unlucky or responsible for their own decision, it negatively affects all of us.

I am sure the response will be 'no one invests based on forums', but that simply isn't true. If someone does their research properly, then yes, they don't rely on forums but they also don't rely on Colin's comms or optimism. You can't have it both ways. Either they are influenced by fluff, such as forums and interviews, or they aren't. Look at how many people appreciate the contributions of theiceberg or Andy Mills and then consider that people might also be taking how board (actively or subconsciously), the continual assault on the company by a group of its shareholders. Why do you think paid trolls target forums - it isn't charitable work.

Also, if you plan to sell your stock then trashing it on a public forum it makes absolutely no sense beyond a childlike desire to stamp your feet.

I have lost significant money myself on stocks - last year in RMM due to the mine collapse and in KEFI due to kidnapping of mine staff by insurgents. I didn't trash the stock or the CEO. Instead of attacking my own investment, I quietly sold, then posted 'good luck everyone' comments on the forums and moved on without a backward glance. I would hate to be one of those bitter, ex-holders who haunts forums for years because they don't want anyone else to be successful.

I am probably not convincing anyone with this post but I am trying anyway because its actually in your interest too. Please consid

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/06/legendary-investor-warren-buffetts-company-posts-44bn-loss/

"Warren Buffett’s company has fallen to a $44bn (£36bn) loss after sharp falls in stock markets took their toll on the legendary investor’s portfolio. Berkshire Hathaway recorded the $43.8bn loss in the three months to June, down from a profit of $28.1bn last year. "

I assume its a problem with their comms.... :)

In fact, its quite ironic that the same people complaining about Colin's communication style are spending their own time ensuring that this forum, which should be a source of information and communication for new shareholders, creates a terrible first impression of the company and therefore damages their own investment (if they have one). Interesting strategy.

>> Steve... you clearly have not been in XTR long enough to pass that sort of unwarranted judgement on long term posters on here.

What has that got to do with anything? The forum is filled with complains and little in the way of the type of constructive discussion and research that we used to see. I don't need years of experience to see that. In fact, the people most influenced by the current state of this forum are the potential new investors that read all the complaints about Colin and XTR and go elsewhere instead.

>> I meant to add before... the SP is where it is WITH the FB boost.

What FB Boost? It seems that CB has deliberately said nothing about FB, apart from a throwaway line. Any potential new investor is unlikely to know anything about FB income. He appears to be saving that news for when it will make a difference.

>> lso Colin made a point of showing disappointment that cash raises are difficult with low SPs

Yes, but for BZT! Xtract is in a totally different situation thanks to FB. He stated only a month ago that we didn't need to raise in the next 12 months. As I said, distorted reality.

>> Tiny UTs have not put the SP down to where it is. Yes UTs can distort a daily close but are you really saying that the SP is heading lower because of occasional UTs ?

Lucky520 asked if the 10% share price on a specific day (as I quoted in my post) was down due to world events or the news release. I replied it was due to a small UT instead. It seems self-evident that if Lucky thinks the share price dropped 10% in response to news, that would give him a different impression of that news and the company in general than if the share price dropped 4%.

Combined with the near-constant complaints on here about Colin and attempts to play down the current massive disruption in the word economy in preference to a 'XTR is badly run' narrative, it can create a false impression, either accidentally or deliberately. Note we almost never get a small UT higher than the mid-price.

It seems to me that some people claiming to be shareholders are either consistently trying to damage their own investments by creating a distorted impression of the stock (which seems improbable), or have sold and are now trying to find someone to blame for their losses, or are trying to get a cheap buy price.

I'm investing a lot more time in Telegram now, which seemed to be an XTR forum for people interested in research, understanding their investment and having informed debates. LSE seems to have become a forum for people to complain that Colin is responsible for all their investment woes. Funny how they didn't complain about Colin when the share price was going up. How people handle adversity says a lot about their character.

>> Was the 10% drop the other day due to the world problems.... or the news release.

It was due to the small uncrossed trade after close that was outside the MM official bid-ask. Actual drop based on mid-price was only 4%. There was another tiny UT on Friday that appeared to cause another drop but mid-price didn't change so that was actually no change. Try checking level 2 to see what is really happening - or check on Telegram where I post the level 2 information every day.

Seems like a few people are going to a lot of trouble, either via manipulated post-close trades or misdirection tactics on here and other forums, to paint a rather different picture than the reality. I wonder why. I assumed the latter was just frustration, but maybe I am being over-generous. Plenty of money to be made here by encouraging people to sell.

At this point, I think it is easier to agree to disagree. We all have different past experience and perspectives and will weight our decision-making accordingly. I don't think we are going to change each other minds on this topic so I will bow out gracefully.