Crude price1 Apr 2024 11:10
Taken from MSN feed:
"Russian Deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that the country’s oil companies will focus on reducing output rather than exports in the second quarter in order to evenly spread production cuts with other OPEC+ members.
Drone attacks from Ukraine have knocked out several Russian refineries, which is expected to reduce Russia’s fuel exports.
“Geopolitical risks to crude and heavy feedstock supplies add to strong (second-quarter) demand fundamentals,” Energy Aspects analysts said in a note.
Almost 1m barrels a day (bpd) of Russian crude processing capacity is offline from the attacks, affecting its high-sulphur fuel oil exports which are processed at Chinese and Indian refineries, the consultancy added."
Appears that $85+ crude price will be here perhaps for the rest of the year and beyond. Certainly the above has a significant impact, plus years of global under investment on the supply-side, as well as, I also consider that the general masses have become accustomed to relatively 'high' petrol prices. Other demand side contributors include the rapid rise of the the middle classes in India and their demand for travel, which in turn is fuelling the momentum in the numbers of planes and aviation fuel. A further significant demand side affect is the current red sea Houthi attacks that have resulted in commercial ships taking longer journeys around the Cape of Good Hope thereby requiring more fuel.
All of the above means PTAL will be benefit from high crude prices for the foreseeable and in turn cash should be rolling-in. So that begs the question, why hasn't PTAL's stock price moved. Possible answers include: the price has already moved 232% during the past 2 years and it needs a breather, with long-term holders taking some profits and de-risking; ESG - oil is just not the flavour of our time and so large institutions will no longer invest in the sector (which also in-turn impacts of supply-side investment); and perceived regional instability. However in respect to this point, at national level and largely at the community level PTAL (but not with everyone) appear to be well respected; Then there are private investors who glance at a stock paying very high dividend returns and without analysing further discard it as "too good to be true."
So, what can PTAL do to raise the stock price? As far as I can see, very little more than what they are already doing. They are increasing production, engaging with the local community, communicating with their share holders and paying handsome returns. So, I am comfortable with the price where it is, and look forward to making a top-up at the start of the financial year, whilst collecting 12%+.