Member Info for steph

annoying

we did not have 7% dips for no obvious reason when in AIM.

just speculators coming in and out amplifying regular smaller dips and gains

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/19/ftse-100-markets-live-news-strikes-oil-gas-inflation-davos/

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/18/cazoo-founder-steps-97pc-collapse-value/

As Sage correctly identified this firm was not really a tech firm and the competitive retail market it operated in was low margin. Business plan was more hope and hype than strategy.

It was madness for GROW management to not exit well before IPO and someone just was drinking the marketing cool aid. Substantial reputational damage for GROW management as stock pickers in each sector to have this very public failure. Hoping we jettison last few shares and get this off the books soon. Whatever might be gained by hanging on for a bit offset by the reputational damage of ownership.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/16/central-banks-risk-setting-financial-earthquake-constant-rate/

I suppose this is number 1. Always good to check Italian 10 year bond rates. If over 5 caution, If over 7 panic. Never saw japan a a big risk compared to Eurozone default.

War in Ukraine spreading beyond Ukraine or becoming nuclear number 2 but after nearly a year no sign of that.

Great time to invest in GROW but not for the faint hearted. best times to invest are unfortunately alway accompanied by higher risk.

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/venture-capital-dry-powder-2022

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/

I’d suggest that the us 10 year bond yields are the benchmark for our sp as the money that chooses unlisted tech have a 5 to 10 year investment horizon. They might park money “dry powder” in a short term fund but to permanently invest elsewhere at only 3.7% maybe not.

I think 2023 will be a very good year for our SP.

https://pitchbook.com/items/files?eu=yQk2%2BlrYNIMauZa%2FSzm5A%2BrDx4RdHOKwIWgi8zyQMN%2BSORyVjvonKndau7tLr9KcelPYMCugnS9%2Fe2WoxQNbNwzKkABF5Kar0AiElw%2F%2BU4E2%2Fl6ep2EE6juqP6ciEzgE

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1003096/trustpilot-gets-5-star-review-from-investors-as-it-forecasts-higher-than-expected-ebitda-1003096.html

Says we will get to 900 within 12 months of issue or 2 November of 2023 or 10 months from now. We have often outperformed and outrun on the upside broker guidance although in the last 18 months have spectacularly underperformed broker guidance. IN the general market over the last 100 years a bad year only follows a bad year 9% of the time and I don’t expect 2023 to buck the odds. We will get a general market lift and a share specific boost on 70% sales growth in core portfolio. I say 12 quid by 18 months to include the year end results July 2024 which should show strong NAV/share growth and similar prospects going forward. We will be back trading at or above NAv/share and valuations will reset upwards as well as panic over.

Generally broker guidance errs on the upside but they have a big incentive to be close ot accurate.

Yes still over 90% in my isa and other pots. Frustrating. I thought untraded tech would prove relatively stable in a downturn due to infrequent funding rounds and specialist investors who take a long term view. It is stable and values for funding rounds not much affected by downturn but our structure of having a retail front end means we can catch retail severe covid never-the-less. I’m confident it will rebound and we will see 12 quid again within 18 months or so. From there onwards and upwards.

For me odd dip below 4 quid. I fully expected a range of 5 to 6 by now as credibility of NAV/share is established and panic that world for non traded tech was ending is over. Seems we have gone back to pre pandemic levels of VC private funding which was at 10 years highs so no major change of trend.

Panic that interest rates might follow 1970’s attempt to tame and rise to 10% or more is over. Will peak at 5% or so in US and maybe 4% in UK and then flatline and decline. Hardly catastrophic for private tech. I expect trend will be clear in February as commodity prices drop further. Wages will play catch up for a year or more so headline rate will be 5% for a while but trend will be down. Don’t underestimate the psychology of US inflation rate expectations of gas prices dropping. Every street corner advertises the petrol price in neon lights. It is a psychological indicator that affects perceptions of prices out of proportion to the weighted importance.

Lack of a dividend to be sure. I agree better not to have one in choppy markets but it is reassuring for investors.

I suspect the 3 traded shares crashing is hurting us beyond that 3 share dip which is now fully priced in. Many shallow investors will assume other pre IPO shares have had a similar % crash in sp. Demonstrates very publicly team can make errors such as Cazoo.

Coyness on the performance of individual portfolio companies and which companies have been discounted in NAV calculations and by how much. Investors like transparency especially in choppy markets. Willing to trust only in good times.

Too little information especially at portfolio level on runway lengths and sales growth and valuation points relative to sales multiples. Investors assume the worst right now.

We dropped faster and deeper but will recover faster and sharper. Hang on. Component companies are increasing sales at a cracking pace (70%pa) and that will result in sharply increased NAV/share sooner or later from the conservative calculations we have. Much more if the general market recovers and we don’t have to discount last round valuations as we are.

thanks

cant find ic comment can you give a link

Gas price dip signals £13bn ‘windfall’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/adb5d184-8f9a-11ed-8b99-f233af7a7956?shareToken=60eb942b52324156ef73159f370fd33e

https://www.investopedia.com/markets-cheer-fading-inflation-7092351

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/the-pitchbook-vc-dealmaking-indicator

wish i knew but im all in and no plans to sell any below 12 quid so patience is needed.

i except a sharp turn up as soon as peak interest rates in sight . not quite yet. maybe jan

https://files.pitchbook.com/website/files/pdf/Q4_2022_PitchBook_Analyst_Note_2023_Industry_and_Technology_Outlook.pdf