Member Info for steph

I expect our SP even in this terrible marek to drrift up to 2/3rds the new nav/share pretty quick. Maybe as fast as tour ful reslts end of November. That wil be about 5.50 per share.

After that depends on general market. Any clear turn and we will get back to the deflated nav/share (8.30 ) and then if a solid recovery there will be speculation that the NAV calculations can come out of emergency mode and back to normal supporting a nAV/share above 12 quid an an sp anywhere form NAV/share to a 30% premium or so as per our history. So 15 quid within a couple of years quite credible.

Maybe did enough to establish 8.30 as credible conservatively calculated NAV/share. We should see a drift up to 2/3rds NAV/share .

Interesting statement that if they had used last round for 12 months we would have had a major NAV increase in the order of 200m. They chose to deflate the NAv calculations from what I'm sure accountancy standards would have allowed.

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/news/2022/10/31/time-to-seize-on-private-equity-trusts-discount-deals/

annoying, maybe need some extra time due to valuation detail. hoping they release enough detail to reassure market valuations solid. no time to be shy. hoping they use an independent valuation or at least an Edison report that looks at valuation validation

SP wise absolutely dreadful.

NAV/share wise quite good.

Surely arbitrage opportunity here. I think we have overshot on the downside due to retail panic on thin information on the valuation methodology and results share by share. Just not enough in this market to keep it aggregated.

and by about 30% and on no specific company news. For the charters we formed a perfect "w" for October, steep sides and all.

IN last 2 years we have had preliminary half year results by around now. I'm expecting they will confirm NAV/share at at least 9.29 and hopefully give some more detail on the valuation methodology and KPI's s so confidence in GROW"s NAV calculation develops. We are currently on an SP of 34.4% of stated NAV/share which only makes sense if the NAV/share is not going to hold. Flat growth in profit (ie increases in NAV/share) for the next year not enough justification for such a big discount. Modest growth of 10% per year or so in NAV/share should justify an SP of around NAV/share. 15 to 20% a premium of 30% or so. This aligns with our history.

I asked Alex Holand for exactly when -no reply

2021 was 4th November but was a substantial update 17th September and they said they needed extra time due to jitters on valuations.
2020 was 29th October.
2019 no preliminary update just half year results on the 26th of November.
2018 no preliminary results just half year finals on 5th of November.

I expect the results will confirm NAV/share is solid at 9.29 -maybe a touch higher. What it won't say is we are about to rocket upwards just yet. If they give, in the half yearly results, enough information on the valuations methodologies and metrics to reassure a jittery market we should see a quick march up for our SP to 2/3rds NAV.

https://www.newtraderu.com/2022/01/28/w-pattern-trading/

https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/private-equity-europe-q3-2022-charts

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/10/27/ftse-100-markets-live-news-pensions-tax-bonds-meta/

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/GB00BY7QYJ50MoltenOutlook210322_new.pdf

helpful to read above Edison report from march. Still valid.

CAZOo looks like it has been oversold too. I might buy a few on open.

The 4 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Molten Ventures PLC have a median target of 914.50, with a high estimate of 1,020.00 and a low estimate of 900.00. The median estimate represents a 210.00% increase from the last price of 295.00.

Consensus we will hit current trailing NAV/share within 12 months. That is a 3x rocket rise. Few stocks on the maerkt has a recent broker consensus 1/3rd of current price. Patience all.

European private equity dealmaking defied myriad economic headwinds in Q3, with deal count up 16.9% compared with the same period a year ago, while aggregate deal value remained flat.

Our Q3 2022 European PE Breakdown explores how the industry is dealing with the new normal of higher interest rates and inflation. Key takeaways include:
Take-privates and carveouts continue to be a major theme for the year due to currency devaluations and lower public market valuations.

Average PE deal sizes have trended upward, reaching €289.1 million in Q3.

Exit activity is expected to fall short of last year's highs.

European fundraising is on pace for its lowest total in a decade.
read the report

yes s long way to anything sensible.

2/3rds nav due to current market conditions normal. 26.5% of nav either massive overshoot on downside or indication that something seriously wrong on nav calculations.

i think there is no evidence of problems with nav calculations and the upcoming half year results will help reassure the market.

from 2/3 nav share to an sp of nav/ share and beyond will require a market and sector recovery.

i think that will come sooner rather than later as sector dip closely tied to interest rates not recession fears. thus as soon as recessions kick in interest rates will flatten then drop, deputy of boe saying that moment may have arrived already. with it will be a big relief rally for whole tech sector but especially the unlisted private bit.

we could be back to nav/share by this time next year. indeed that is precisely what our only broker guidance predicts, so 3x over 12 months from here

good luck all

borrowing costs down helping sector plus we are due an update soon that should solidify nav/share snd major investors can sniff mood by chatting to staff

It now looks like an orderly transition to a conservative government that at least is able to the the basic math.

FTSE 250 should be helped but I'm not expecting an immediate big boost. Truss wrecked the ability to add a bit more to the national debt to fund helpful infrastructure or incentives for the tech sector. Extreme orthodoxy now needed to gain international credibility back and that means tax rises and cuts in spending right at the beginning of a recession. Bad timing to be sure but better than stupid.

thanks for the charter perspective. Even if charting has no theoretical connection to future sp movements so long as there are enough charters in the market and theory are influence by the identified patterns it will become self fulfilling SP wise and thus real.

Some pretty good evidence that momentum investors have an edge but of course the trend will have to change at some point a limit to it's applicability at the extremes of low and high. I thin we are at or very close t the 5 year low and thus how we got here not relevant to what will happen over the next 2 years.

I am kind of a fundamentals person. I believe our NAV/share looking fairly solid at around 9.29 . I believe it will moderately go up over the next 2 years. I believe NAV/share is conservatively calculated so maybe not a by the day mark to market (as traded shares can be) but valuations are aligned with the market forces relevant to the untraded tech sector which is next round purchase every 2 years or so. I believe the next round valuations on the untraded portfolio we have (REVOLUT maybe an exception ) will clarify that there was no need to assume future downrounds.

There have been few downrounds, by no means any trend to an usually %, and this is because the money that goes into the sector is flush with cash due to an usual spike in exists through IPO's over the last 2 years. Unlike GROW (Big GROW mistake to retain a significant number of CAZOO, IPpath and tustpilot post IPO) most private equity tech money exits 100% on IPO and then recycles the money back into unlisted tech. The sector is awash with cash. Funds being selective right now due to market conditions but selective does not result in extensive downrounds.

Well we hit 240 three times. If a charter what does that mean?

I’m pulling my hair out at this SP level but expect that the half yearly update will start a sustained lift.

Uk politics has thrown just about everything at our shares and so no much downside left there.

Putin can lob a tactical nuclear weapon and that will cause all stocks to crash until it is clear what happens next. I’d expect the Americans to lob a tactical nuclear weapon to match rather than start nuclear annihilation.

I expect the the global central banks will start sounding more dovish shortly as low unemployment recession starts to materialize. Bank of japan has a point and if they all did something similar we would have quite a bounce. No need for high interest rates to slow the economies. They will slow all by themselves at 2% with no QT. Like BOJ maybe even QE still needed.

Good luck all.

Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent said it’s not clear that UK interest rates need to rise as much as investors expect and warned about a hit to the economy if markets bets come to pass.
While “the justification for tighter policy is clear” in the face of soaring inflation, demand will slow to some extent anyway along with higher prices, Broadbent said in the text of a speech on Thursday. If rates follow the current path, it could cause a 5% hit to GDP, he said.

I had a bit of a window on big tech sniffing around a very early stage VC through my friend’s comapny.

It was very early and well before any profitability. It was basically a technology buy rather than bother to develop the technology themselves.