Member Info for steph

We are back in aim.

ftse 250 has been an unhappy time for us. hopefully we will het less volatility in aim.

Thats my assumption. 100% invested and all in GROW (wihc in turn is 1,700 Eu Uk tech start ups in various stages of development). I’ll diversify when we are over 12 quid whenever that is. Wish me luck.

Good interview. Agree with katie.

Https://www.economist.com/business/2023/08/24/arms-flotation-could-revive-the-market-for-ipos

I’m an economist -sadly. I agree that 5.5% interest rates not a reason to think whole pipeline of start up tech dead or significantly overvalued. Massive overreaction. We will get a massive correction upwards at some point. Just don’t know when. Did not get my remortgage so grimly hanging on. Makes no sense to be below our launch price 9 years ago. Portfolio much lareger and stronger. .

Recessions good for our sp so nothing to fear on that front. Unpriced black swans nowhere to be seen. War in Ukraine priced in. High interest rates more than priced in.

War in Europe -nuclear or conventional -beyond Ukraine not priced in but I think still unlikely. NO safe investment if that happens. Could trigger sovereign defaults so even government bonds not safe in a big war scenario. farming land in NZ the best under that black swan.

For my money i think all central banks right now are talking tougher than they will turn out to be. bias towards a carney “guidance” stance until inflation near target.

lots of political and economic stability pressure to cut earlier than later. cant do so until data gives cover but will be aggressive when they can. recession overall good for grow as lost market for goods or services tiny compared to positive aspect of much lowered interest rates

Thanks daddy for the informative post. I’m hanging on.

Thanks agri

for my money i dont think there is a rational reason for the low sp. just overshoot and with the big smart money waiting to plow back in rather than add now

It is at the lowest level it has ever been in it’s 9 year history of trading. silly. opportunity for the brave

No evidence at all the nav/share fir grow is not discounted enough to reflect current market conditions.

with organic growth and a likely market recovery we will fly from here

Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/HSBC-bank-venture-debt-vs-private-fund-loans

Its a mortgage on a recreational property.

i expect a full sp recovery (defined at 9.00 plus) by october 2024 but i will be able to wait if delayed. indeed additional borrowing has the objective of allowing more time on what i have and not just adding some.

the sectors that went down with interest rate rises will go up on anticipation of drops . still choppy waters on interest rates do not yet.

i genuinely thought that a tech unlisted portfolio of over a 1000 firms diversified by tech sector and eu uk geography was diversified enough but sadly no. yes a risk of management c_ck up but rather low risk i think for grow. c_ock up would need to be borrowing to invest just before a downturn and running out of operating capital just when realizations are hard to get even at discounted prices. trust structure itself can never go bankrupt if not leveraged and portfolio will never be worth zero even if a historically high percentage fail.

i never anticipated this volatility of the retail wrapper given the slow moving asset base but live and learn. with such volatility need some diversification so i can sell when needed without selling grow at the wrong time. indeed thd higher the volatility the more smaller a percentage of my holdings grow can be.

Im remortgaging to give me the ability to top up seriously.

our nav per share never went crazy in 2021 surge and we never had much to drop to get back to our long term trend line. no reason to be this far below and it will correct itself. companies we own in rude health and growing sales rapidly.

Still bumping along the bottom of the u.

trigger to start the last leg of up not quite yet. at some point improvement in the big tech valuations focus on ai where we have several companies and market acceptance our nav/share was sufficiently discounted to reflect new market and away we go. maybe earlier but certainly by half year results in october

Https://pitchbook.com/news/articles/Europe-PE-trends-q2-2023

Paid or not I don’t disagree with any of the Edison analysis. It seems quite measured and not a cheerleader. Good use of pitchbook data. MV and Edison keep saying NAV calculations “cautious” and basically marked to market (even when nobody will need to go to market) and not in anticipation of the NAV value in future rounds in slightly better times.

Great edison analysis. Why oh why are we not 5 quid even in current market conditions.

Https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/23/artificial-intelligence-boom-generates-optimism-in-tech-sector-as-stocks-soar?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

We have not yet moved on the following good news:

1) broker guidance all massively above current sp. I believe the highest differential of any FtSE 250 share.

2) director buys have not moved us much up in spite of being quite substantial and recent compared to FTSE 250 shares.

3) wider market for big listed tech has recovered substantially but not us -yet

What would for sure make us jump are:

1) price discovery by exiting some of our positions by trade sales or fundraising rounds of some of our core portfolio at or above the NAV we have them on. The books for. This has happened for a small part of our portfolio but if it was 2 or 3 or our biggest holdings we would jump exponentially.

2) pipeline repair of funding round market and the angst of down rounds to come with it gone.

3) NAV/share increases on our upcoming half yearly results with forward projections of more to come.

Yes