Member Info for steph

I got caught out in the big dip in 2011. I had quite a bit of Barclays thinking it was a diversification from the builders and bigger and more stable. Yet Barclays dipped more than the builders and was the straw that broke my leveraged position overall. Afterwards I felt I just did not understand the banks enough to feel I was really an investor and not a speculator. Of course if I had the resources as Berkshire do I'd be diversified all over the place. I totally agree diversification is better than concentrated. However diversification away from a risk you know well to one that you know far less well might not be net positive. Maybe for us amateur investors who have quite limited time one big well understood punt is all we can sensibly do. I do have some pension funds in a black rock tracker so it is not quite true that I am 100% in TEF. Just 100% of what I am allowed to manipulate.

thanks YEs a tiny bit of diversification into a investment vehicle such as SMT that targets that sector is a good idea. I like TEF and the builders as I feel I have some professional background that gives me an edge against the average fund investing. For technology stocks less so. As a sector they may be temporarily overvalued. I really don't know what cycles they go through. I understand the cycles the builders go through and thus i feel I know the risk. In the long run a good fund picking AE, robotics and big data will grow even from these exalted P/E highs we see today. There could be quite a setback along the way and I don't know how to assign risk to that. Once upon a time my best friend had a big data start up that was going to make us all millionaires (and him a billionaire) Nearly did but it is a volatile sector at a granular level. Once bitten twice shy they say.

My whole holding is now fully paid for shares in my ISA so I am less anxious about short term movements than I was and thus post less but read all. I'd love to find a technology firm, social media data firm or robotics firm that does not have a ridiculous P/E but also without a handy time machine parked in the drive nothing comes to mind. A fast plodder (if there is such a thing) such as TEF that can -and probably will- double in size and profit every 4 to 6 years will get us rich slowly. That growth rate must slow down in 15 or 20 years time as TEF becomes a larger % of the London market but until then I have all the risk and all the reward I wish to have. With fast plodders I can have a million pound+ ISA in 15 years time and that is unfortunately the limit of my ambition. Enough of a boost to be comfortable in retirement but no private jets for me.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/house-price-index/

2.6% real price growth over 30 years (and probably over 100 years) reflects a growing economy and population but with limited supply. Quite sustainable to a degree fettered by affordability. Affordability is more flexible than pundits say. People switch to renting who otherwise might have bought and let someone with access to capital do they ownership. People double up and occupy less space. Retirees move out to be replaced by those who need to be close to work changing the income profile. Sub 3.5% interest rates are probably here to stay (probably settling around 2 to 2.5% in due course) dramatically affecting affordability of large mortgages for all income points compared to the recent, but not immediate, past. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/interest-rate (look at max trend)

https://www.rics.org/Global/2._WEB_%20February_2018_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_tp.pdf

we did vote to get married back in 1975 with 67.23% in favour. Of course our bride has aged and become bigger and bossier in the interim but was still our choice of bride -warts and all. Our bride certainly expected the marriage to last for life and she did give us quite a bit of freedom to roam (rebate, no euro and many opt outs) so long as we remained loyal in the end. Now sadly we have filed for divorce but we have no idea yet what to replace her with. We recognize that we do need partners(s) but they all seem to be just as bossy as her and with their own unreasonable demands. The Indians want migration as part of a deal and the Americans in a good mood want us to eat chlorinated chickens and in a bad mood want an outright trade war. I do believe that once we have shopped around we will appreciate the relative merits of the wife we had. I hope by then it will not be too late for a reconciliation and we can all live happily ever after.

SP remarkably steady after Chrisp street setback. Either our main investors don't get invoked in the detail of the operational side (maybe assume that all developers will have trouble with planning at some point and already priced in) or more likely the underlying strength of the company is propping us up in spite a bit of company specific bad news and maybe a fund is slowly building a stake and does not mind doing so when the news is sour. Can't say the background music for the economy and sector is anything to get excited about. No Brexit collapse but we have not left the EU yet so if it comes it is still ahead of us and not behind us. Osborne and co did a big disservice by predicting immediate impact right after the vote -which has not materialized. If they had said the economic impacts will occur after we actually withdraw they would have been more credible. Trump still helping us out by being himself. No matter how screwed up we are we look more rational as a place to invest than New York for internationally focussed business and financial services. If the Americans really wanted New York to screw London they would cut an financial services equivalence deal with the EU that went deeper than what London can negotiate in it's weakened position. That would really permanently screw us and London would shrink to be a clear global number 2 in business and financial services rather than an equivalent of New York as it is now.

It's a colourful bit of London I know well. Appeal to the SoS is looking more likely given the information you have shown. This type of protest is rarely satisfied by a few tweaks. It really has nothing to do with the merits or not of the application and is all about evidence free posturing. SoS can provide a less politicized decision making environment. Public inquiry though, if called, can pour a lot of petrol on the fire and give a platform to whoever wants to raise their local profile.

1) minor tweaks and resubmit. Face saving all round. 2) Start of hardball. Appeal (or start to appeal) to SoS. TH get level advise they will probably loose and back down and tell residents it is based on legal advise. 3) Hardball. Appeal to SoS and TH in spite of legal advise do not back down. TEF win. Bit of ill will all round and money and time spent. 4) Hardball gone wrong. Appeal to SoS and big public inquiry is called a which drags on and on and erratic inspector finds for TH or imposes costly conditions on TEF. Huge time delays, big money spent with barristers on both sides raking it in and ill will all round with opposition to scheme using enquiry to organize and make their local political points that can have nothing to do with TEF. TH maybe even fund traders to help make their case and maybe even hire specialist advise to fight enquiry. Big mess. Anouther Archway inquiry or Thames Gateway Bridge enquiry or even the failed Southall Town Centre inquiry where the failure in 1990 of obtaining only 3 fringe properties of the 45 properties needed on the CPO spiked the whole development agreement.

A hard brexit is already priced in so as long as it is orderly this "risk" on it's own will not cause a major dip. Now orderly is not guaranteed with this government. All bets are off if we crash out of EU structures. It is not just the EU's trade we crash out of. We would also crash out of some 60 trade agreements including the USA and China if we crash out of EU. It could take years to tidy up the mess. It is not just the loss that is calculated (which however awful is spread out over many years and does not mean a recession). There is the incalculable loss of business confidence that can run in parallel and exacerbate losses that are mathematically trade related. For my money I think we will not jump off a cliff but I have 100% fully paid for shares in my ISA and can ride out a 2 year recession. I might buy some shares on my spread this spring but I have not done so yet. For me I am unusually cautious right now. Waiting to see a way forward on Brexit before committing more funds.

Bit less than 50% but rising Hard Brexit crew may be overplaying their hand. They have a harder Brexit than they ever could have imagined but keep digging in for more. At some point dam might burst.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/02/16/city-cheers-plan-bespoke-brexit-deal-finance/ Hate Brexit uncertainty but for London it is not likely a catastrophe. 25% of city business is from the EU, 25% Uk and 50% beyond EU. Our real competition is New York not Frankfurt. Trump helping us out a lot on his immigration phobias but hurting us with his corporate tax cuts. TEF market for near prime units will chug along for the foreseeable future. London simply has diverse new economy drivers that are still expanding with globalization in spite of a few idiots at the top of government.

Oddly enough for me Corbin's support for at least being in a customs union is a positive investment signal for UK equities in general and TEF in particular. Reduces the risk of a stupid Brexit. He made the case, quite elegantly I thought, for supply chain advantages of a common market (auto parts going back and forth 4 times until final assembly takes place) and the lack of any prospective advantages to tearing customs union up with the EU for some mystical trade agreements terms we do not already have as part of the EU "team". Germany exports 10x as much to China as we do under our existing shared trade agreement. Our underperformance relative to Germany is being blamed on the trade agreement we have which is clearly nonsense. Germany just out hustled us under our existing terms. China might even trade less with us not more if we are cut off from the EU. Fox with now a large department behind him to investigate has not yet suggested a single viable new trade agreement we might have once outside the customs union that significantly improves on what we already have.

Corby hates the Tories even more, much more. Besides while he can ignore Blairites he can't lead his left wing momentum movement forever and not shift towards a soft brexit. He quite cleverly said his left wing objections to the EU and common market were subject to "clarifications". This leaves the door open for the left wing objection to single market membership being solved by the EU clarifying his concerns on nationalization. The reduction of state aid is a major win for the EU and is progressive overall. He is being bombarded by lots of left wing economists that state aid is not progressive and benefits capitalists more than workers (look at the mess USA is in when it comes to state aid). HE may well come round on this due to advise of friends plus a little clarification of what a common market nation can do to aid industry under common market rules (training subsidies directly the workers, enabling infrastructure and the like).

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-backs-staying-in-customs-union-after-brexit-wpdsp73qk Strange that the grown ups on the economy are the Labour party.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Rightmove-House-Price-Index-19th-Feb-2018-London.pdf quite a turn around for TEF patch (zones 2 and 3)

So long as they are not brick walls and a way round can be found they help us in the long run. TH is not referendum crazy California and there are multiple ways forward. I have missing chunks of my career tied up in UK applications and public inquiries where the proposal never made it over the line. It happens, time is lost and it hurts. TEF seem to navigate it all better than most. Even the best batter (US baseball) does not bat 1000.

Its a funny area with a long history of "stick it to the establishment" mentality. I think Phil Piratin's constituency extended to the area when he was one of only 2 CP members of Parliament in 1945 to 1950 (the other in Scotland). Navigating the local polities is what can add value for us. More power to TEF team. Getting a positive officer recommendation is a big platform to build on. Pity not enough to get it over the line on this occasion but the mountain to climb is now just a hill. .

I know tower hamlets politics and some of the players personally from some time ago. BIggs is a sensible chap but he is as you see not on the planning committee. There is one I do know on the committee also sensible. Biggs would, however, be involved if there was an appeal to the Secretary of state as costs can be awarded if TH loses so legal advise and planning advise would be sought and normally followed. Normally officer advise constrains the wilder instincts of members (who bless them are not aware of precedent and policy constraints) and a synthases emerges that is quite superior to other planning systems I am familiar with.